Lava Rock Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Today's low was about 20, a slight change from yesterday's -2. Last 2 days departures were -22 and -23, month running -7.Jeez, below 0 already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Where is the Pope’s stemwinder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where is the Pope’s stemwinder? Must be another Pope around here... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 You have to wonder if most areas will roll into 2020 without a solid snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 I'd still watch T-day week...there's some decent cold hanging around and there's a pretty decent -NAO look on both GEFS and EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 The cold keeps reloading on the gfs. Very nice pattern with a storm threat next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 12z GEM is likely the high end of solutions for Monday/Tuesday in terms of how wrapped up this can get... I am favoring something sub 990 at our latitude given guidance consensus showing this being moisture rich off the SE coast in mid November. Expecting moisture fluxes to play a more important role in deepening this than our garden variety Nor Easter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Record early season snowmaking and openings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: You have to wonder if most areas will roll into 2020 without a solid snowstorm. That happens many seasons in SNE...what’s your point? Many times it takes until After the first of the year to get anything significant in SNE. Just the way it goes some years. That’s why March is a winter month and features more snow than both November and December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 25 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: You have to wonder if most areas will roll into 2020 without a solid snowstorm. Its only mid Novenber lol. SNE will likely have snow before the year is up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Its only mid Novenber lol. SNE will likely have snow before the year is up. You need to stop going out on a limb with the bold predictions lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Wake me up when it's December. This weather has been good for drying out the wood pile. Yeah, other then the 2 brief cold snaps, this weather has been benign. We yard cleanup this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 49 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Must be another Pope around here... Now you’re more like a Cardinal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 47 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 12z GEM is likely the high end of solutions for Monday/Tuesday in terms of how wrapped up this can get... I am favoring something sub 990 at our latitude given guidance consensus showing this being moisture rich off the SE coast in mid November. Expecting moisture fluxes to play a more important role in deepening this than our garden variety Nor Easter... Some of these fringe guidance types are trying now to shave 850 mb temps more, too ... now that the models have more unilaterally focused on the lead wave as we were discussing yesterday. At that time I was speculating that if the 2nd wave were to become the focus, that one appeared to have better chances for marginal/flip to parachutes... But it's interesting that the lead focus is starting to "maybe" inch downward in the profile - Not saying that means blue bomb in the interior, per se, but... that GGEM solution you reference does not unzip a pocket of -1 to 0 C at 850 mb pretty much collocated with the lower Greens/Whites and western Mass elevations as the low maxes by Cape Cod. Plus, these make-up-artist QPF products having the IP contamination on the NW edge... I'm not will consign this thing to just wet west of 495 and N of Kevin ... How much remains to be seen. I could see that continue to modulate fractions and end up more snow in there...Or, it gets windy and rainy and then as the wind gets light in latter innings ... there's this light slush flakes in the street lamps inconsequentially ... Welcome to the game of marginality - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 28 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: You need to stop going out on a limb with the bold predictions lol What makes you think SNE isnt going to see any snow for the rest of the year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What makes you think SNE isnt going to see any snow for the rest of the year? That’s a big ass whoosh! 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 40 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What makes you think SNE isnt going to see any snow for the rest of the year? He was being sarcastic...meaning that isn’t that bold of a prediction given there’s 6 weeks left to 2019, and each day/week that goes by, it gets more conducive for SNE to see snow. He was just busting your chops a lil Ant...all in fun. I don’t think we get shut out from now, until The new year either. Something should pop...even just a couple inches is Not that hard as we go into the end of November, and into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Not high on people's priority list, I'm sure, but man ... it's 51 here, and after a couple of days where mornings were near 15 and afternoons were in the low to mid 30s, this feels like one of those "fake" balm gems you get in March where people think it's 70! Nice out. Doesn't happen without appreciation from me ... even though there's homage given to the coastal early next week and how it even looks interestingly like an unusual ice potential. Someone was mentioning the ice storm of the 1920's in November a while back ...that was an unusual coastal storm set up too - hm. Wonder if there could be any similarity. I tell you, if that high pressure over eastern Ontario happens to slow a little bit, you get that much more BL resistance and cold loading in the llvs... heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: The cold keeps reloading on the gfs. Very nice pattern with a storm threat next weekend. What about on the FV3? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Boy ..I'll tell ya. It's too bad the NAM were not a more dependable guidance source beyond ... 10 minutes, because this is a truly nasty extrapolation for N-W of HFD-PVD-BOS: FOUS61 KWNO 151200 OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z NOV 15 19 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 ALB//662825 -1116 222112 39009799 BTV//765418 06916 192011 31999595 06000574828 02117 202711 41049700 06000756225 03220 172313 34019688 12000804318 01924 232915 41019598 12002984611 04724 213213 30009386 18000592315 -5430 293617 37979190 18003641609 -7431 323311 24898484 24000531019 -1231 350212 37919291 24000641615 -6731 363206 28888884 30000391230 00229 350109 39969295 30000631829 -2430 363304 34928990 36000421236 -0127 340211 42959498 36000812340 -0427 370206 37919295 42000651151 00326 330308 42929600 42000811653 00324 341204 39909597 48000621749 -1124 300307 44929800 48000572449 00722 321205 41919799 54000402251 -0621 240705 46009801 54000492344 00922 261203 43999900 60000793254 02217 190609 49000003 60000462143 -0619 211206 47990003 BOS//603122 00616 232514 40020099 LGA//542423 00417 242707 44030200 06000432824 -1116 182317 44070201 06000462124 -0315 222409 48070402 12000543636 02916 202817 44059801 12000502635 00415 232911 49070103 18000693415 04226 253423 40009398 18000693630 -1017 253616 46029701 24000500817 -0730 313517 38939492 24000501225 -0529 300218 45979501 30000361124 -2329 323612 40999394 30000310935 -1329 310416 44009500 36000441639 00128 330213 43009498 36000401147 -0728 310416 46009400 42000621744 00226 310414 44999500 42000531857 -2022 280418 46999602 48000771943 -0924 290618 46009502 48000722457 -0321 250420 49999805 54000772364 00824 240720 47049703 54000796471 00308 190422 51020005 60000888565 -0416 180726 51050004 60011959566 -3005 130320 53020504 PHL//572239 00112 252906 46030302 IPT//772119 01115 262407 43980000 06000422134 -1513 232706 50070503 06000512118 -0415 232606 46030201 12000551435 00919 243111 50060404 12000753625 -2215 253415 46019900 18000762239 -0516 250116 49010003 18000863523 -0819 293613 44989300 24000723236 01121 290420 47009502 24000561026 00121 320213 43949501 30000331334 -1827 290519 47009603 30000281129 -1124 320509 43999400 36000421549 -0125 290418 48009604 36000321637 -1123 310410 44989402 42000583457 -3419 260420 49989705 42000331746 00921 290609 45969802 48000723765 -1714 220320 51990006 48000383052 -0419 260709 46969804 54000807667 -1204 160422 53000306 54000562942 -1516 190807 50010005 60025979262 -2005 110420 53011004 60000703240 02115 160509 51000005 Look at the lower left series of numbers... for Philadelphia. Down there, in the mid-Atlantic, and the lowest T1 temperature is 34 F with winds 20 kts out of the NE. That's translating up the coastal plain into SNE where it's probably 30 to 32 and ice. The other thing ... unrelated to that, is the surf? This thing is so so at mid levels, but the models are really maximizing the mechanics of the negative tilting and helping to core this sucker down pretty deep relative to those 500 mb typology. I mean into the 980s mb isn't too shabby, and with a big high retreating, we end up with an impressive gradient that is approaching from the S. That means it's long shore fetch and probably there are big swells associated. What's the tide chart like. I know there's a spring tide scheduled the week of T-giggedy... But that looks like splash over potential either way. Hey man, for storm enthusiasts, it's all we got, but it's got some potential to be a multi-facet moderate impact Nor'easter. We could end up with noodles mixed with zrain falling into 31.8 F interior surface layer. That'd be neat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: He was being sarcastic...meaning that isn’t that bold of a prediction given there’s 6 weeks left to 2019, and each day/week that goes by, it gets more conducive for SNE to see snow. He was just busting your chops a lil Ant...all in fun. I don’t think we get shut out from now, until The new year either. Something should pop...even just a couple inches is Not that hard as we go into the end of November, and into December. I see some sled tracks on the Rangely Lakes Snowmobile Club webcams. That's got to be pretty early. Looks like 6" or so OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 I don't think the Euro got that memo about the week of Thanksgiving - well...maybe it's not terrible at mid latitudes. But the flow seems kinda flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I see some sled tracks on the Rangely Lakes Snowmobile Club webcams. That's got to be pretty early. Looks like 6" or so OTG. Oh ya...the locals get out when the ground gets covered. Way up in N. Aroostook County they got about a foot the other day, and quite a few locals busted out the sleds. Let’s keep it coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't think the Euro got that memo about the week of Thanksgiving - well...maybe it's not terrible at mid latitudes. But the flow seems kinda flat. It looks ok IMHO...not as good as last night's run or the ensembles, but you can see the -NAO building and it looks like EPO ridge is in the process of reloading. Not gangbusters or anything...agreed on that...but probably enough to keep us bothering to watch guidance for interesting threats...esp for interior this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 I'll add that the EPS just coming out looks better than the OP run out at the D10 range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'll add that the EPS just coming out looks better than the OP run out at the D10 range.... Does doesn't it ... I'll also add ( for how little it's worth ...) every GEFs member has some form or another of an eastern amplitude/coastal storm on the 12z cycle, D's 8-9-10. I find that interesting... The operational version just happens to be one of the farthest east and more blase solutions - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'll add that the EPS just coming out looks better than the OP run out at the D10 range.... Possibly trending towards the gefs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Man..the more I look at that, that's bizarre just based on my own experience, seeing the operational run be crucially flatter out west with the ridge comparing to it's ensemble mean. Usually it's the other way around .. huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Yeah... fwiw - the Euro's quasi zonal vibe doesn't really jive too well with the cross-guidance tele/ensemble mean. Not that the GEF's derivatives ever mean anything to the operational Euro... but, considering the EPS DOES jive with the GEFs tele's, that makes me linger over the idea that the Euro's just being a douche-bag 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... fwiw - the Euro's quasi zonal vibe doesn't really jive too well with the cross-guidance tele/ensemble mean. Not that the GEF's derivatives ever mean anything to the operational Euro... but, considering the EPS DOES jive with the GEFs tele's, that makes me linger over the idea that the Euro's just being a douche-bag Imo the OP Euro has been more of a douche-bag lately than ever.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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