Spanks45 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Another cold morning, dipped down to 21.6° after the clouds cleared out....will feel great today with temps near 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Should of said week of T day...Muthafukin Jerry knows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Zzzzzz ahead 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 30 for the low. Not stupid cold for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 I’m excited for 40s and sun. Maybe I can leaf blow later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m excited for 40s and sun. Maybe I can leaf blow later. Not if the leaves are frozen to the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 This is cool...found daily EP Flux animations on the ESRL page. Guess it won't animate here but that's a nice upward flux...reading about them too. Hopefully something like this will continue moving forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Not if the leaves are frozen to the ground 40s and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Shit ton of Oak leaves on the ground now but still more than 1/2 left on the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: 40s and sun. Low sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 06z gfs, what a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: 06z gfs, what a run Images of the 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Images of the 06z? I am cruel but not that cruel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is cool...found daily EP Flux animations on the ESRL page. Guess it won't animate here but that's a nice upward flux...reading about them too. Hopefully something like this will continue moving forward. Flux capacitor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Low sun angle Keep studying your voodoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Flux capacitor? that's what that is? 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Keep studying your voodoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Yeah...heh, front loaded winter full of average highs and uninspired events. I've sensed a kind of tendency to verify closer to average, comparing original model assessments going back through the summer actually. Like we're doing the same thing .. in the early cold season now. Makes me wonder if it's all just over-modeling in general .. I mean, considering it's doing it regardless of season, normalizing outlooks is happening either way. But, things are trending to verify at less than the amplified sides, relative to their capabilities/what they could have given original appeals. Damping tendency, one might say it. Not sure what that's about.. But, this recent journey seems to fit in with that. About two or three weeks back, boy did we have a nice solid H.A. statistical/correction type layout, and it's been a adventure in how to get to the least plausible results relative to that signal ever since. Anyway, one of these 40s for highs with Darwin-honorable-mention-threw-the-pond-ice patterns, yeah might just fit in with that trend. One way or the other, fake news in the models verifies as blase reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 I guess the only - present - modeled aspect ...barely worth mentioning, is that the Euro and GFS operational are a little unsure what to do - or how much may be apropos - with a N/stream diving dynamic "seam" wave out there D7 - 8.5-ish. ...Oh, seam just means that it's not really signaled by some modal index, mass-correction event lake the recent failed H.A. stuff. It's compact and not related to larger scaled synoptic unrest. The 00z GFS I'm sure others have seen. It's remarkable in a silent way, that the Euro was so similar to that from this far away. So much dynamic core punching as that thing quasi-bombs would wrap [ probably ] CCB down into central /eastern NE regions. More so in the GFS .. which in either case, this is no bearing or intention to forecast, just describing that period of time. The 06z GFS rendition taking the more northern route with that is actually probably a better fit for behavioral trend, to mention .. the global warm, HC pushed north shit, combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: that's what that is? It’s not that lol. N/M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not that lol. N/M. You’ve gotta give wizzy credit. A lot of guys like to throw those maps around and use big, impressive sounding scientific words to make it sound like they know what they’re talking about, but wiz doesn’t try to fool anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: This is pretty cool to see. I also wonder if this bodes well moving forward. Seems like the theme since early fall as been for these positive height anomalies to strengthen between 180-120W over the Arctic region and that has been some big time warmth at 10 hPa which has developed. It does look like this will relax a bit but maybe watch that area around 50E...perhaps that's what is triggering some of the responses we're seeing near Thanksgiving? What responses are we seeing near thanks giving ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: You’ve gotta give wizzy credit. A lot of guys like to throw those maps around and use big, impressive sounding scientific words to make it sound like they know what they’re talking about, but wiz doesn’t try to fool anybody. I'm not all that afraid of really saying I have zero clue what I'm talking about...doesn't do me any good...or anyone else good pretending to know what you're talking about. There was a time when I was crazy interested in this sort of stuff and I thought going back to school would have helped significantly and I could have continued learning more...just the exact opposite happened. 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What responses are we seeing near thanks giving ? There seems to be alot of talk/interest in the time period...or shortly after for another major shift in the pattern which could result in another surge of cold into the U.S. The pattern relaxes for a bit, re-loads, and boom...a big blast of cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I'm not all that afraid of really saying I have zero clue what I'm talking about...doesn't do me any good...or anyone else good pretending to know what you're talking about. There was a time when I was crazy interested in this sort of stuff and I thought going back to school would have helped significantly and I could have continued learning more...just the exact opposite happened. There seems to be alot of talk/interest in the time period...or shortly after for another major shift in the pattern which could result in another surge of cold into the U.S. The pattern relaxes for a bit, re-loads, and boom...a big blast of cold. Do you know of the source for this revelation ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Wake me up when it's December. This weather has been good for drying out the wood pile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Could do without the ice on monday though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2019 Author Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Wake me up when it's December. This weather has been good for drying out the wood pile. Yes. Hard to expect meaningful snow in early to mid November regardless of the tellies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm not all that afraid of really saying I have zero clue what I'm talking about...doesn't do me any good...or anyone else good pretending to know what you're talking about. There was a time when I was crazy interested in this sort of stuff and I thought going back to school would have helped significantly and I could have continued learning more...just the exact opposite happened. There seems to be alot of talk/interest in the time period...or shortly after for another major shift in the pattern which could result in another surge of cold into the U.S. The pattern relaxes for a bit, re-loads, and boom...a big blast of cold. I was just bustin your balls anyway. I commend you for finding an interest in it and studying it more. There’s not a lot of predictive skill with this stuff yet, but we wouldn’t be where we are today with science if we never tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Do you know of the source for this revelation ? HM on twitter has made mention a few times along with a few others...earthlight is another...can't think of the others off hand. 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I was just bustin your balls anyway. I commend you for finding an interest in it and studying it more. There’s not a lot of predictive skill with this stuff yet, but we wouldn’t be where we are today with science if we never tried. It's highly fascinating, albeit challenging/frustrating. If we are able to discover what the true driver or what the drivers are I think the predictability will skyrocket. We do have an understanding of the drivers and what can drive patterns...but moreso of the "after the fact"...like if we were to look at 500 plot of the winter of 1975-1976 you could likely pretty easily determine what the drivers were...but it's gauging what the drivers will be moving forward which possess the greatest challenge...I mean there are times where it is obvious (a rather strong ENSO event, for example). What I'm just going to focus on for now is Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation and then try and branch off from that. Much o the research is conflicting as to whether its the stratosphere which drives the troposphere or vice versa...however, there are some interesting papers (just read one) which states otherwise and provides some overwhelming data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 That would be some siggy damaging ice on the 12z Nam in NW VT verbatim, Close to 1". 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 Today's low was about 20, a slight change from yesterday's -2. Last 2 days departures were -22 and -23, month running -7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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