dryslot Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 A little flatter and a couple more tics SE on the 18z Euro this run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I know it is the GEFS, but is that a -NAO showing up along with some ridging out west towards the end of the run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I know it is the GEFS, but is that a -NAO showing up along with some ridging out west towards the end of the run? There’s some weak ridging in the nao domain fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It looks rather unfavorable for SNE. Feel pretty good with Ryan going for a few inches for CT Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Feel pretty good with Ryan going for a few inches for CT Tuesday. I think at this point, you’d have to put that out there being an on-air MET. He knows he can take that back tomorrow or Sunday if need be. But when in Competition with the other stations, you need to keep the viewers abreast of the potential...so that was smart on his part, Cuz it could do(snow possibly) just that next week..? But I don’t know how much confidence that should give us though, knowing what we do with the latest model guidance?? The general public doesn’t know what we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Still definitely favor weak and progressive w gradient snows beginning in some part of CNE 4-5?day fast flow voodoo wooo The High set up does look a bit more favorable. Maybe concord to Denty sees some ice ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think at this point, you’d have to put that out there being an on-air MET. He knows he can take that back tomorrow or Sunday if need be. But when in Competition with the other stations, you need to keep the viewers abreast of the potential...so that was smart on his part, Cuz it could do(snow possibly) just that next week..? But I don’t know how much confidence that should give us though, knowing what we do with the latest model guidance?? The general public doesn’t know what we do. He’s as conservative and close to the vest (weather wise) as there is. So for him to talk about that 4 days out means at least something . I will say his rainer end of week has a decent amount of support to be a snower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 41 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: FWIW some nice GEFS members There certainly are. Not sure how those GEFS can be 90-100% on 6”< at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It looks rather unfavorable for SNE. A lot of favorable solutions as the low moves northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Those snow prob maps sucked in the last event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Those snow prob maps sucked in the last event. True, the models sucked in the last event lol. But the snow prob maps being much further north than the deterministic solutions at one time was a red flag. The op models were snowing in CT when the ensemble snow probs were through Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: True, the models sucked in the last event lol. But the snow prob maps being much further north than the deterministic solutions at one time was a red flag. The op models were snowing in northern CT when the ensemble snow probs were through Dendrite. And we know how that panned out, So far i'm not impressed with any model guidance, That's a bigger red flag then anything overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: And we know how that panned out, So far i'm not impressed with any model guidance, That's a bigger red flag then anything overall. Yeah, my fear is still that this comes in a bit warmer as we approach go time. Like Tippy said, it does look like a more robust repeat of the last system... and that one at this lead time was modeled far too cold ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah, my fear is still that this comes in a bit warmer as we approach go time. Like Tippy said, it does look like a more robust repeat of the last system... and that one at this lead time was modeled far too cold ahead of the system. I certainly favor your area, Over to Northern NH and Northern and Western Maine for this next one, Can't rule out some ice in CNE though right now but further south and east from their, Needs more work for anything wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Those snow prob maps sucked in the last event. They mean very little in Euro, Eps, gfs, Gefs in this Situ at this lead we are tracking a weak over running event .Those that have seen this dejavu yesterday / today knew N greens always have best 6” inch probs as long as there is an element of upslope if this event doesn’t dry up like a GILF by 0z Monday or trends back to a actual low with mid levels we board the bus in cne,/ ne nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: They mean very little in Euro, Eps, gfs, Gefs we are tracking a weak over running event .Those that have seen this knew N greens always have best 6” inch probs as long as there is an element of upslope if this event doesn’t dry up like a GILF by 0z Monday we board the bus You want it to stay weak too, Or it will be tracking to BUF, The whole trough needs to be further east for the rest of the folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: They mean very little in Euro, Eps, gfs, Gefs in this Situ at this lead we are tracking a weak over running event .Those that have seen this dejavu yesterday / today knew N greens always have best 6” inch probs as long as there is an element of upslope if this event doesn’t dry up like a GILF by 0z Monday or trends back to a actual low with mid levels we board the bus The stronger push south of the cold actually helps in this scenario to create better frontogenesis. So hopefully we get that. You get that push south and then the second shortwave has to run the system into a much colder airmass which produces good thermal packing and better fronto and prob more defined midlevels....but it seems we're not going to get that and instead it's going to ride along the weaker frontal boundary that stays NW and the system stays elongated. But who knows...still enough time for it to change but it has to really start trending hard tonight or early tomorrow I'd think. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: You want it to stay weak too, Or it will be tracking to BUF, The whole trough needs to be further east for the rest of the folks. I just want snow un north with this one , I don’t have more than a 15% shot at more than a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I just want snow un north with this one , I don’t have more than a 15% shot at more than a dusting I would take some for hunting, Otherwise, Start it the first of December and build it into Jan when its more use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I mentioned this a few days ago. The n stream flow was modeled to be more sharp and with more digging, for both this past system and probably next week. We ended up with, and will likely end up with models showing a more climatologically favored setup, a little more relaxed and rounded. This should allow the southern stream to press north of what models show from D5 esp. the gfs and Canadian, which imo tend to be cold biased at that range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I mentioned this a few days ago. The n stream flow was modeled to be more sharp and with more digging, for both this past system and probably next week. We ended up with, and will likely end up with models showing a more climatologically favored setup, a little more relaxed and rounded. This should allow the southern stream to press north of what models show from D5 esp. the gfs and Canadian, which imo tend to be cold biased at that range. Hmm why is the northern steam having trouble dipping and digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 Perspective for everyone: normal highs for today PWM: 51 CON: 52 AUG: 48 BGR: 48 CAR: 42 BTV: 49 St Johnsbury: 48 SLK: 46 You’re all a bunch of uber unrealistic weenies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Hmmm, my weather station could be a little off but right now it is 24F DP18! Elevated valley ftw for my C&D fetish. Blowing and raking crisp leaves tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 24 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I mentioned this a few days ago. The n stream flow was modeled to be more sharp and with more digging, for both this past system and probably next week. We ended up with, and will likely end up with models showing a more climatologically favored setup, a little more relaxed and rounded. This should allow the southern stream to press north of what models show from D5 esp. the gfs and Canadian, which imo tend to be cold biased at that range. Now that’s a good post my dear Dr. Nice contribution! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Hmm why is the northern steam having trouble dipping and digging It isn't. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 28.4 right now, pretty damn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 23.5F Here, no wind gusts since sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Had a couple of nice squalls move through between here and Gilford. Probably 1/4SM in a couple of them while driving through. It feels like midwinter and it sucks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 33 minutes ago, weathafella said: Perspective for everyone: normal highs for today PWM: 51 CON: 52 AUG: 48 BGR: 48 CAR: 42 BTV: 49 St Johnsbury: 48 SLK: 46 You’re all a bunch of uber unrealistic weenies. That’s awesome. It is so cold relative to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: 23.5F Here, no wind gusts since sunset. Yeah, i’m actually at 22F on the mercury thermometer. Enjoying a cracking outdoor fire, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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