WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Just now, Dr. Dews said: It has nothing to do with what I want. If you want to discuss things that have 0% chance of verifying and wasting your time, feel free It’s a weather forum...and it’s in the appropriate thread. Why are you even here? People here discuss the weather and possibilities. You have no clue as to what six or seven days from now will bring. All you do is snicker and prod folks..what’s your deal Dews?? Some chick break your heart..that why you so bitter? Go change your avatar..it’s about time for that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: It has nothing to do with what I want. If you want to discuss things that have 0% chance of verifying and wasting your time, feel free You mean like the HHH for Aug-Sept? That was when your post count got extremely elevated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: It’s a weather forum...and it’s in the appropriate thread. Why are you even here? People here discuss the weather and possibilities. You have no clue as to what six or seven days from now will bring. All you do is snicker and prod folks..what’s your deal Dews?? Some chick break your heart..that why you so bitter? Go change your avatar..it’s about time for that. You are mistaken, but feel however you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: It has nothing to do with what I want. If you want to discuss things that have 0% chance of verifying and wasting your time, feel free Can you please inform us what we SHOULD be discussing????? ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: You are mistaken, but feel however you want. Well that’s the persona you’re projecting here...what do you want to discuss on this thread? All you do is make fun of what everybody here is talking about? I don’t get what you’re trying to contribute, or accomplish. But I can assure you, it’s getting most tiresome. Grow up, and start posting like an adult, instead of a 7th grader. I’m sure you have a lot to contribute, instead of always trolling/and dishing out sarcasm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Just stop responding to the attention seeking clown and it will go away...or it will change its SN again and rise with a new online identity. I’ve ignored the troll months ago but everytime someone quotes it, I see the post...annoying. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 LOL at some of the rhetoric in here...today's event really isn't that far off from a decent early season event over the interior. Yeah, it didn't pan out for most (I'm sure Mitch will get several inches in VT, for example), but lets not pretend that this should have been handled as some complete model guidance mirage from 4 days out....there's a reason we don't lock stuff in from 4 days out, but it doesn't mean dismiss it either because it's anomalous. Remember all the clowns who dismissed the October 2011 storm even 2 days out? Some of them were TV mets too. (but not our own Ryan Hanrahan) Just to demonstrate the main piece that were different in the snowier scenarios....the streak of energy north of Maine was pressed a bit further southeast on the previous snowier solutions....and that in turn, forced the lakes energy a bit southeast as well as make the overall temperature profile much colder over New England..... BTW, I agree with Tip that the GFS beat the Euro this time around from about 4-5 days out....neither was correct, but the GFS was closer. The Euro also had a pretty classic burp run that one solution where it was dumping 20 inches on the chickens....that should have always been viewed with skepticism and I think most here did view it that way. But as for a run-of-the-mill advisory type snow, we actually weren't that far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: LOL at some of the rhetoric in here...today's event really isn't that far off from a decent early season event over the interior. Yeah, it didn't pan out for most (I'm sure Mitch will get several inches in VT, for example), but lets not pretend that this should have been handled as some complete model guidance mirage from 4 days out....there's a reason we don't lock stuff in from 4 days out, but it doesn't mean dismiss it either because it's anomalous. Remember all the clowns who dismissed the October 2011 storm even 2 days out? Some of them were TV mets too. (but not our own Ryan Hanrahan) Just to demonstrate the main piece that were different in the snowier scenarios....the streak of energy north of Maine was pressed a bit further southeast on the previous snowier solutions....and that in turn, forced the lakes energy a bit southeast as well as make the overall temperature profile much colder over New England..... .. BTW, I agree with Tip that the GFS beat the Euro this time around from about 4-5 days out....neither was correct, but the GFS was closer. The Euro also had a pretty classic burp run that one solution where it was dumping 20 inches on the chickens....that should have always been viewed with skepticism and I think most here did view it that way. But as for a run-of-the-mill advisory type snow, we actually weren't that far off. I also I try to stay clear of the psycho-babble bullshit these days but still, I think there was a hang-up between "seeing the season's first snow" - versus maybe winning the lottery and having that go well above climo ? It's seems if folks kept the former expectation as the primary motivation for following and engaging in the hobby ..etc, that may make it less bitter that we're ...looking at whatever this present thing is. I dunno - seems that way... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I also I try to stay clear of the psycho-babble bullshit these days but still, I think there was a hang-up between "seeing the season's first snow" - versus maybe winning the lottery and having that go well above climo ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I wonder if the LES snow machine will crank at all next week. It's going to be pretty fun though seeing how next week pans out. Lots of ingredients there to make things happen...just about timing of features really. It should be pretty favorable though for cyclogenesis off the east coast. What a cold shot too for the upper-Midwest...brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Colder next week system on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Decent snow event NYC-BOS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 At any rate....keep an eye on the trough axis for the next threat...that will be a huge key. The 12z GFS has shifted east vs the 06z and 00z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Snowy Tuesday on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Yeah, seems like a decent look for November 12th at 120 hours out, not sure what people are hoping for. Cold too all the way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: At any rate....keep an eye on the trough axis for the next threat...that will be a huge key. The 12z GFS has shifted east vs the 06z and 00z runs. Definitely could end up suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At any rate....keep an eye on the trough axis for the next threat...that will be a huge key. The 12z GFS has shifted east vs the 06z and 00z runs. Yehah... we have to remember, we're still in an overall circulation regime that represents "good problems" to have. One thing I'm also thinking about is just how fast the flow is trying to circumvallate that trough, and even the D6-7 thing can be - obviously - misguiding because of that additional stress in the models. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 System also closes off as it's passing near the benchmark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 That’s some seriously cold air next Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: That’s some seriously cold air next Wednesday! Mid January feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: That’s some seriously cold air next Wednesday! That's been pretty constant regardless of where exactly the storm tracks....brutal cold next Wednesday. Unless there's a pretty significant moderation, that's gonna obliterate some record low maxes and prob record low mins....esp if we can get some snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 At least the GFS solution sort of makes sense at this point. Nothing historical, just a light to moderate snow event for the middle of November.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 This sounding in southeast Canada is wild...you would think this was within the Arctic circle or something. H5 temp NEAR -50C with the tropopause there!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Crazy Uncle also shifted east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Locking in 4-8" next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Grinded to our SE looking likely. Type of flow where you’re wet with the first system then you’re cold and dry with the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Was hoping we were wrong with C& D next week, but appearing likely now. At least it’ll be cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Some other methods are flagging a stormy look ... particularly D4 to 12. Probably just ancillary indicators falling into line/emerging into the previous signal for mid month. But the MJO is accelerating through 6, spending really only 2 and half days there, and appears to slow down in both the Euro/GFS clusters as it cuts through 7 -->8 ... which OND is cold temp correlation moving from the NP thru the Lakes and into the east as it goes. It think there's some potential that the models have backed off the depth of that trough next week and may should not have - we'll see where this goes, but there also a recurving west Pac TC ... hard to say which came first, but the WPO favors that behavior and may send additional goodies down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 CMC tighter in-mixes and maybe changes eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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