November 2019 discussion

[Go Kart Mozart]

The southern streamer over the southwest seems to be compressing the height field in the Gulf states, not allowing our northern streamer to dig deep.  In any case, 06gfs is an improvement.

[Typhoon Tip]

larger -scaled idiosyncrasies in positioning of major trough and ridge nodes around this side of the Hemisphere certainly plays a role, but I noticed something else leap out at me from the operational Euro's 00z solution.   Particularly ...the D4 thru 6 evolution.  I wrote about this yesterday at length, ironically - and no sooner... school's in session.  This got wacked across our faces on this Euro's run:

"...I used to refer to this as the "Miami rule" back in the day, ..and it still works actually, even though I was blissfully unaware, then, that what I was observing was the early onset of the former.  I did a statistical analysis of east coast storms years ago ( talking 2002 or 2003 ), and found that 72 hours prior to the storm genesis ( usually when the governing mechanics are still not yet arrived/crossed the 100 W longitude ) if/when heights were > 582 DAM over Miami, and wind speeds were > than 35 kts, the Miami rule was in effect. Then, as the S/Ws succeeded that ~ 100 W their southern aspects began to absorb wave mechanics into the preexisting balanced upward wind anomaly.  The troughs tended to morph into a positive slope geometry ...and onward, this then of course mitigated cyclogen parametrics - not absolutely... Just in part.  But sometimes that part might be large, and mid range storms ended up weaker. ..."

Thing is ... up thru yesterday, I had been monitoring the heights between the western Gulf of Mexico to Florida and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin, and they were lower.  This run last night, en masse, corrected the 500 H up about 6 DAM on average, ...but I feel that is critical/threshold breaching in terms of getting the larger-toward-smaller scaled neggie interference going, and this run reflects it.  If one starts on D4 and clicks through you can see the trough getting absorbed/sloping positive...  

This is a factor having to do with the HC expansion, which can be ephemeral ... or, in the case of climate change, a longer term systemic change. That latter is heavily papered... That said, it doesn't mean that we can't time a period in there when it happens to relax some - I mean, it's not like an immovable slab of concrete ..it's still just air.  Anyway, this interference would take place regardless of the those other synoptic observations folks made yesterday, related to nuances in ridge trough positioning. So, basically add this to this mitigators.

So, long of the short, the bigger H.A. signal may not bear fruit in terms of "big" ...but, supplying a system of any kind and probably middling is the way to go, because this 13th thru the 16th is just getting banged around by any reason the Earth's atmosphere can think of to cancel out a major system.   Now, in addition to your observations re those ridges and trough, we got this height surplus correcting into the S and that's going to speed up the flow and start negatively interfering..   Pig pile on Heather Archembault I guess... 

[Typhoon Tip]

And there's a system D8-10 coming into the NP that shows promise ... And notice the heights over GA/FL/ Gulf region have large gap spacing, and 582 dm contour is abeam or S of Miami... that's all a signal of compressibility to the flow and said NP system has a shot at burrowing its way into the TV and setting up a more proficient cyclogen response along the EC... 

Question is, does the model wait until day 5 again to suddenly go wait, global warming... f' if I forgot!  Better jack the heights in the S to atone for it and then we go thru this absorption /cyclogenesis robbing shit all over again... 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea I never thought a big signal is in the cards either Tip. Ditty’s favorite bermuda blues as followed by Cranky’s disciples is a detriment to a big system early on in the season. I think those heights eventually, or should, get squashed to some degree as we head into the core of the season, however. 

[moneypitmike]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes, the whole thing is coming. Because the FV3 had clear skies prior. I then followed it up by saying we must have some warm EPS members and "this could come further north so there is that."   Same with next week. I don't see cold and dry. Cold and dry would be a low way offshore and no chance of any precip here.

 

 

Yeah--cold and dry ain't happening.  Less cold and wet is certainly in the cards, but I don't know where the notion of dry's coming.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yeah--cold and dry ain't happening.  Less cold and wet is certainly in the cards, but I don't know where the notion of dry's coming.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea I never thought a big signal is in the cards either Tip. Ditty’s favorite bermuda blues as followed by Cranky’s disciples is a detriment to a big system early on in the season. I think those heights eventually, or should, get squashed to some degree as we head into the core of the season, however. 

Mm, I'm not as optimistic for that. 

This issue of the HC actually gets more burdensome and forcing on the flow as the winter matures.  Cold heights only steepens the ambient gradient in the total atmospheric space, and by the time the HC relaxes ( did this last year ) we're already into the spring at lower latitudes ( Feb ). 

The papers discuss this as "shifting storm tracks northward" but ... gathering one's theoretical wit about themselves, that can mean just about anything that also includes shearing and/or velocity saturation -related negative interference, too.   It's all part and parcel of the HC expansion issue that is permanently part of a warming world - unfortunately.  And, we are beginning to see it physically manifest on storm behavior and modeling ( I feel ); which as an aside, this tendency to "cancel" storms going from extended to mid and shorter ranges is an emergent model performance error tendency. Unsure why the models seemed to need to 'correct' heights higher in the HC at the D5 temporal boundary ...but that seems to be a repeating, albeit, subtle theme of errors in recent decade.  The Euro just did it. 

To your point, it probably doesn't help that climatology doesn't really stem-wound very many Cape Hatteras to western NS bombs in mid November.  But, that climate isn't a preventative either - it just suggests its hard to come by this early.  Whether this particular system succumbs to too much heights in the south/speed saturation because of the HC or not, that could happen anyway this early when a substantive negative mid level anomaly plumbs S into the residual seasonality.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes, the whole thing is coming. Because the FV3 had clear skies prior. I then followed it up by saying we must have some warm EPS members and "this could come further north so there is that."   Same with next week. I don't see cold and dry. Cold and dry would be a low way offshore and no chance of any precip here.

 

 

Reading your tea leaves for 10 years You bought the euro having a deeper MSLP and when the gfs had something more organized you say it’s coming , not meaning a snow storm , but a storm . Then euro/eps dissolved into a fropa and we AWT ourselves into it’s still coming . Nobody really cares but you were leaning toward euro solutions and we kno you weren’t locking in snow several days out .

[HIPPYVALLEY]

22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yeah--cold and dry ain't happening.  Less cold and wet is certainly in the cards, but I don't know where the notion of dry's coming.

 Well, it could definitely be cold and dry inbetween rainstorms. 

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

larger -scaled idiosyncrasies in positioning of major trough and ridge nodes around this side of the Hemisphere certainly plays a role, but I noticed something else leap out at me from the operational Euro's 00z solution.   Particularly ...the D4 thru 6 evolution.  I wrote about this yesterday at length, ironically - and no sooner... school's in session.  This got wacked across our faces on this Euro's run:

"...I used to refer to this as the "Miami rule" back in the day, ..and it still works actually, even though I was blissfully unaware, then, that what I was observing was the early onset of the former.  I did a statistical analysis of east coast storms years ago ( talking 2002 or 2003 ), and found that 72 hours prior to the storm genesis ( usually when the governing mechanics are still not yet arrived/crossed the 100 W longitude ) if/when heights were > 582 DAM over Miami, and wind speeds were > than 35 kts, the Miami rule was in effect. Then, as the S/Ws succeeded that ~ 100 W their southern aspects began to absorb wave mechanics into the preexisting balanced upward wind anomaly.  The troughs tended to morph into a positive slope geometry ...and onward, this then of course mitigated cyclogen parametrics - not absolutely... Just in part.  But sometimes that part might be large, and mid range storms ended up weaker. ..."

Thing is ... up thru yesterday, I had been monitoring the heights between the western Gulf of Mexico to Florida and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin, and they were lower.  This run last night, en masse, corrected the 500 H up about 6 DAM on average, ...but I feel that is critical/threshold breaching in terms of getting the larger-toward-smaller scaled neggie interference going, and this run reflects it.  If one starts on D4 and clicks through you can see the trough getting absorbed/sloping positive...  

This is a factor having to do with the HC expansion, which can be ephemeral ... or, in the case of climate change, a longer term systemic change. That latter is heavily papered... That said, it doesn't mean that we can't time a period in there when it happens to relax some - I mean, it's not like an immovable slab of concrete ..it's still just air.  Anyway, this interference would take place regardless of the those other synoptic observations folks made yesterday, related to nuances in ridge trough positioning. So, basically add this to this mitigators.

So, long of the short, the bigger H.A. signal may not bear fruit in terms of "big" ...but, supplying a system of any kind and probably middling is the way to go, because this 13th thru the 16th is just getting banged around by any reason the Earth's atmosphere can think of to cancel out a major system.   Now, in addition to your observations re those ridges and trough, we got this height surplus correcting into the S and that's going to speed up the flow and start negatively interfering..   Pig pile on Heather Archembault I guess... 

Thanks Higgings.  
 

You’re like Higgings from Magnum P.I. in the 80’s.  

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yeah--cold and dry ain't happening.  Less cold and wet is certainly in the cards, but I don't know where the notion of dry's coming.

Lol, anything can happen.  We went from an Archambeault event to a frontal passage in 18 hours.  Hold on tight boys, it’s gonna be a twisty and bumpy ride ahead. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Something else to think about ... which, no one will most likely, is that the Euro from D5 was way over selling what is going to turn out to be a nuisance front for overnight tonight, ... much more so than the GFS ever did. 

Not saying the GFS was right per se ?  It could be 'right' for lower impact, but having gotten there for the wrong reasons, too. That sometimes happens.. So we shouldn't readily extend credit there necessarily, either.  I'm looking at the individual runs 00z Monday and wow did the Euro get lost in overproduction... Even 00z Tuesday it was still selling a quick Jersey bomb deal; while the GFS trended a little more developed across those days, it was N and waited 'til NS to really deepen matters.  Sorry, the GFS wins this one from middle-range.

There is definitely a culture of 'wait until the Euro' and a palpable if non-disclosed sense of 'relief' or 'gaiety' comes across from the weather enthusiasm sphere when the Euro happens to align with wants and desires.  But, this journey this week proved hands down and incontrovertibly that the Euro was flat f'n wrong man, and the GFS was flat the whole time so out performed it.  

I've noticed that the GFS is like the red-headed step child model at times.  And tho at times it deserves it, there are those other times where it's just gone and done better but few seem to recognize it.   

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Something else to think about ... which, no one will most likely, is that the Euro from D5 was way over selling what is going to turn out to be a nuisance front for overnight tonight, ... much more so than the GFS ever did. 

Not saying the GFS was right per se ?  It could be 'right' for lower impact, but having gotten there for the wrong reasons, too. That sometimes happens.. So we shouldn't readily extend credit there necessarily, either.  I'm looking at the individual runs 00z Monday and wow did the Euro get lost in overproduction... Even 00z Tuesday it was still selling a quick Jersey bomb deal, and the GFS was a little more developed but was N and waited 'til NS to really deepen matters.  Sorry, the GFS wins this one from middle-range.

There is definitely a culture of 'wait until the Euro'  and this journey this week proved hands down and incontrovertibly that the Euro was flat f'n wrong man, and the GFS was flat the whole time so out performed it.  

I've noticed that the GFS is like the red-headed step child model at times.  And tho at times it deserves it, there are those other times where it's just gone and done better but few seem to recognize it.   

Good point.  I had my big discussion with the peeps about the Euro earlier this week..it isn’t as impressive imo as it once was.  But I agree with you completely that it sh*t the bed totally with this f/p coming through this afternoon/evening.
 

 Imo it seems to be doing that a lot more than it used too...but peeps just hate to see that?  

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good point.  I had my big discussion with the peeps about the Euro earlier this week..it isn’t as impressive imo as it once was.  But I agree with you completely that it sh*t the bed totally with this f/p coming through this afternoon/evening.
 

 Imo it seems to be doing that a lot more than it used too...but peeps just hate to see that?  

Well.. I read that ( bold ) and cringe, too.  

Firstly, I didn't say that it 'shit the bed' necessarily?  I don't wanna be couched in that sort of admonishment/castigation thing.  But, as to the bold, it's still better than it used to be.  I think others have discussed this, and why, recently already, so no sense in drubbing the topic back up. 

Let's just cool-headed say, yeah...the GFS seems to have the better idea on this one and leave it at that. We don't have to oversell the Euro's perceived bad performance, or we're just as guilty as the oversell of the model we are evaluating.  

I would still take the Euro over the GFS as a gambler, even in the D4-6 window, but this was a particularly tough call for all guidance really. We are in a screaming fast pattern ( wind more so than wave spacing...). 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well.. I read that ( bold ) and cringe, too.  

Firstly, I didn't say that it 'shit the bed' necessarily?  I don't wanna be couched in that sort of admonishment/castigation thing.  But, as to the bold, it's still better than it used to be.  I think others have discussed this, and why, recently already, so no sense in drubbing the topic back up. 

Let's just cool-headed say, yeah...the GFS seems to have the better idea on this one and leave it at that. We don't have to oversell the performance, or we're just as bad as the oversell of the model we are evaluating.  

I would still take the Euro over the GFS as a gambler, even in the D4-6 window, but this was a particularly tough call for all guidance really. We are in a screaming fast pattern ( wind more so than wave spacing...). 

Oh No doubt it’s still much better than the GFS, and saying it’s flat out wrong..is pretty akin to my adjective (choose whatever description your heart desires). Wrong is wrong. 

And it goes without saying, anybody gambling would choose it over the lesser skilled guidance.  But that’s where MET Skill comes in, as the Pope so eloquently pointed out a few days back. 

[weatherwiz]

Near 90 in Ontario, CA tomorrow...I miss that 

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thanks Higgings.  
 

You’re like Higgings from Magnum P.I. in the 80’s.  

I never really watched the show.   I was probably too young to care in the early part of the decade and didn't come into my own until Star Trek TNG sort of flipped the script on the singular stud model of sitcom television. Your "Mag PI" and "Night-Rider," resonant echoes of a 1980s patriarchal dominant line-toeing conservatism ( thankfully!) started extinguishing.  Shows like TNG with all their aliens and different cultural tolerance built into theme, yet still with hierarchical command structure, played homage to both cultural modes, but was a reflection of the changing times.. 

What the hell am I babbling about ?  Oh, I was into shows in the 1990s when I wasn't drunk at college.  That was usually TNG reruns by then, "Simpsons" ... and "Family Guy" eventually. And "Frazier" loved that show.  In fact, I don't think I ever regulared television other than Science Channel and PBS/Nova type stuff, since Frazier concluded.  Oh, sports - okay.. I like the Patriots and Red Sox, Celtics and Bruins, but that's a different thing.  

Never dug on the stud shows though - both too young, and even if I were older, judging who I am, I'd-a been rooting for the villain to kick the stud's ass!

[Spanks45]

For what ever reason, the 6z and 18z Euro runs were flatter early on. I wonder if there has been any accuracy tests against its own 0z and 12z runs.  They definitely seemed to contradict eachother with this particular system...

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Near 90 in Ontario, CA tomorrow...I miss that 

Be patient, 12/24 and 12/25 aren't all that far off......

[Great Snow 1717]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

What a melt.

it's what happens when a jr high school doesn't enforce the no cell phone use policy during the school day......

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I never really watched the show.   I was probably too young to care in the early part of the decade and didn't come into my own until Star Trek TNG sort of flipped the script on the singular stud model of sitcom television. Your "Mag PI" and "Night-Rider," resonant echoes of a 1980s patriarchal dominant, line-toeing conservatism, started extinguishing.  Shows like TNG with all there aliens and different cultural tolerance built into theme was a reflection of the changing times.. 

What the hell am I babbling about ?  Oh, I was into shows in the 1990s when I wasn't drunk at college.  That was usually TNG reruns by then, "Simpsons" ... and "Family Guy" eventually. And "Frazier" loved that show.  In fact, I don't think I ever regulared television other than Science Channel and PBS/Nova type stuff, since.  Oh, sports - okay.. I like the Patriots and Red Sox but that's a different thing.  

Never dug on the stud shows though - both too young, and even if I were older, judging who I am, I'd-a been rooting for the villain to kid the stud's ass!

I loved Frazier...Great show, and so well written and executed.   
 

Right in your post, where you’re saying “what am I babbling about” lol..that’s what the character Higgings did in the show..he babbled all the time; but was extremely intelligent and well read at the same time.  You’re Higgings reincarnated lol.  

[Torch Tiger]

53 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol, anything can happen.  We went from an Archambeault event to a frontal passage in 18 hours.  Hold on tight boys, it’s gonna be a twisty and bumpy ride ahead. 

This was never destined to be any of that unless someone were trying to oversell or hype. Seems to be a lot of that, lately. "Anything can happen"...nope.

[weathafella]

So in my life-almost always this early tasty solutions don’t verify.  Give us another month with the same pattern and we’d have fun.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I loved Frazier...Great show, and so well written and executed.   
 

Right in your post, where you’re saying “what am I babbling about” lol..that’s what the character Higgings did in the show..he babbled all the time; but was extremely intelligent and well read at the same time.  You’re Higgings reincarnated lol.  

Perhaps ABC can have a pilot for a new tv series " Adventures in Meteorology" starring Typhon Tip. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

This was never destined to be any of that unless someone were trying to oversell or hype. "Anything can happen"...nope

Nobody was overselling anything, we were discussing.  Oh and, I didn’t realize next Wednesday has already come and gone?
 

 Why don’t you stop trolling and downing everything all the time.  We know..you want warm and sunny weather all winter..but please stop being such a sarcastic D**che all the time.  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Perhaps ABC can have a pilot for a new tv series " Adventures in Meteorology" starring Typhon Tip. 

I think it was CBS LOL...but ya that’d be a hoot!  

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Nobody was overselling anything, we were discussing.  Oh and, I didn’t realize next Wednesday has already come and gone.
 

 Why don’t you stop trolling and downing everything all the time.  We know..you want warm and sunny weather all winter..but please stop being such a sarcastic D**che all the time.  

Perhaps a GO Fund Me account can be started to send him to Brazil for the winter???

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nobody was overselling anything, we were discussing.  Oh and, I didn’t realize next Wednesday has already come and gone.
 

 Why don’t you stop trolling and downing everything all the time.  We know..you want warm and sunny weather all winter..but please stop being such a sarcastic D**che all the time.  

It has nothing to do with what I want. If you want to discuss things that have 0% chance of verifying and wasting your time, feel free

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I think it was CBS LOL...but ya that’d be a hoot!  

Tip is going to have all of the networks plus the streaming services bidding for the series! We can all say we knew TIP back in the day lol Quentin  Tarantino  might make 1 more movie before he retires.... Perhaps "Once Upon a Time in Lowell"????

[dryslot]

26 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

For what ever reason, the 6z and 18z Euro runs were flatter early on. I wonder if there has been any accuracy tests against its own 0z and 12z runs.  They definitely seemed to contradict eachother with this particular system...

I've notice this since last year when 06z and 18z went live that sometimes the off hour runs don't follow the 00z and 12z for whatever reason and it happens quite often.