HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 1:22 AM, CoastalWx said: Euro ensembles are a hugger. We'll see if another low forms of the Carolinas like the GFS has. Hugger to me makes perfect sense give ridge position out west, but it's early obviously. Everyone focusing on snow, when these setups can be ZR/IP loaded too. Expand Could also go HV runner and warm sector all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 1:36 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Could also go HV runner and warm sector all of SNE. Expand Sure could. All I am saying is that wherever this goes, they'll be an area of ice probably too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 1:21 AM, CoastalWx said: What a melt. Expand You blew this one bad. It happens friend . Learn error and move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 1:39 AM, Damage In Tolland said: You blew this one bad. It happens friend . Learn error and move on Expand I never knew I gave amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I dont get how this storm can be an inland runner when there is alot of cold air pressing down ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Lol, 3-5" a few days ago to partly sunny Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 1:42 AM, CoastalWx said: I never knew I gave amounts. Expand You didn’t. You said everything was still on the table. King Twist spun your words and meanings, and now he’s melting like Frosty in the greenhouse, but blaming you. So typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 1:48 AM, Snow88 said: I dont get how this storm can be an inland runner when there is alot of cold air pressing down ? Expand 500 drives the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 2:04 AM, CoastalWx said: 500 drives the surface. Expand Ridge to far west on that 12z run..no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 2:07 AM, WinterWolf said: Ridge to far west on that 12z run..no? Expand No high in Montreal. high pressure way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 2:07 AM, WinterWolf said: Ridge to far west on that 12z run..no? Expand Yes. The western ridge position has shifted further west on the most recent runs of the euro and EPS versus earlier. It is all being driven by the EPO block orientation. Sometimes the EPO can "fold over" and it acts as a big PNA ridge which keeps a cutter threat to a minimum...but other times the EPO block will hold where it is and the flow will buckle back to the southwest and the cutter threat increases as the ridge and trough axis are west. Both scenarios still on the table but that is why we saw the hugger showing up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 2:12 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yes. The western ridge position has shifted further west on the most recent runs of the euro and EPS versus earlier. It is all being driven by the EPO block orientation. Sometimes the EPO can "fold over" and it acts as a big PNA ridge which keeps a cutter threat to a minimum...but other times the EPO block will hold where it is and the flow will buckle back to the southwest and the cutter threat increases as the ridge and trough axis are west. Both scenarios still on the table but that is why we saw the hugger showing up today. Expand Good explanation. Makes sense..Thanks :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 2:14 AM, WinterWolf said: Good explanation. Makes sense..Thanks :-) Expand We also don't have a lot of wiggle room given how early in the season it is. Get this even a month from now, and you'll have a much wider area prone to a wintry scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 2:20 AM, CoastalWx said: We also don't have a lot of wiggle room given how early in the season it is. Get this even a month from now, and you'll have a much wider area prone to a wintry scenario. Expand Got it. Hey, it’s something to track/watch. Not expecting much..especially for how early it really is. But at least we can discuss some potential for some wintry possibilities at this early juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 1:48 AM, Snow88 said: I dont get how this storm can be an inland runner when there is alot of cold air pressing down ? Expand You must be new here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 1:56 AM, WinterWolf said: You didn’t. You said everything was still on the table. King Twist spun your words and meanings, and now he’s melting like Frosty in the greenhouse, but blaming you. So typical. Expand Let's not forget this gem: On 11/4/2019 at 9:14 AM, Damage In Tolland said: This is a solid WSW event for much of SNE, possibly to the coast Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 At this point just look for any consistent trends in models pulling the trough W and placement of N & S stream energy. Too far out for much else. The only given right now is that cold air is available but timing and flow can be a bitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 3:11 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: At this point just look for any consistent trends in models pulling the trough W and placement of N & S stream energy. Too far out for much else. The only given right now is that cold air is available but timing and flow can be a bitch. Expand Plus it's November and there is climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 1:36 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Could also go HV runner and warm sector all of SNE. Expand “There is only one way to avoid criticism: do nothing, say nothing, and be nothing.” ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 0z eps is more progressive. This is looking more and more like a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 9:10 AM, Snow88 said: 0z eps is more progressive. This is looking more and more like a cold front. Expand People... Haven't we learned that none of these scenarios are a lock? Some people are saying it's gonna be a hugger...others..ice, we're all over the place. Today is Thursday. It is a solid 6 days before the event ( as its very early Thursday morning ). Also, someone else stated that, it is not January, but November ( early November for that matter ). Any Snow we get is what I call, " Bonus Snow ". One thing is for sure, .... Exciting times ahead. We have a very good set up this Winter to bring us all some good ole classic Winter!! Let's breathe, and just look at this as a trial run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 C and D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Ant forgot about the rain and snow for New England before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 That low next week is going to go bonkers as it heads towards Greenland. Near 150 kt H5 jet streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I'm just starting to pay attention...what did I miss from the last 3 days of model hugging day 7 progs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 From recent posts, looks like Scooter took away Kevin's snow a few times...cool, cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 11:50 AM, JC-CT said: From recent posts, looks like Scooter took away Kevin's snow a few times...cool, cool. Expand He told us it was coming with snow Monday, then yanked it away Tuesday saying he was wrong about snow coming . It happens and it hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I did? Would like to see that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 12:31 PM, CoastalWx said: I did? Would like to see that post. Expand When the FV3 caught on Monday morning, that’s when you said it’s coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 12:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said: When the FV3 caught on Monday morning, that’s when you said it’s coming Expand Yes, the whole thing is coming. Because the FV3 had clear skies prior. I then followed it up by saying we must have some warm EPS members and "this could come further north so there is that." Same with next week. I don't see cold and dry. Cold and dry would be a low way offshore and no chance of any precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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