November 2019 discussion

[ORH_wxman]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

White T-Giving’s for all!

Lol, we'd probably lose all of our snowpack by 11/20 even if we got hit by both storms. Too early to maintain it at our latitude...esp with the pattern looking like it may relax a little. 

But i hope we get another event right before Tday

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, we'd probably lose all of our snowpack by 11/20 even if we got hit by both storms. Too early to maintain it at our latitude...esp with the pattern looking like it may relax a little. 

But i hope we get another event right before Tday

Ya I thought the same thing..way to early to maintain anything here in SNE.  And T Day is late this year to boot..so it won’t be white from anything  being modeled currently imo. 

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Only sub 32 once so far. 33f atm.

Lots of fake cold.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, we'd probably lose all of our snowpack by 11/20 even if we got hit by both storms. Too early to maintain it at our latitude...esp with the pattern looking like it may relax a little. 

But i hope we get another event right before Tday

Didn’t we have white one last year?

[Ginx snewx]

Ralph is the best at charts

[Hoth]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ralph is the best at charts

Funny how BDR's entire positive departure in '13 was attributable to one historic event. But that's often how it goes in the coastal plain.

[ORH_wxman]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Didn’t we have white one last year?

Yeah but Tday was early on 11/22...occurred only 6 days after the nov 15-16 event. Tday is nov 28 this year. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Funny how BDR's entire positive departure in '13 was attributable to one historic event. But that's often how it goes in the coastal plain.

I am 18 miles almost due north from Bridgeport and I pulled off 35ish inches last year....amazing how much of a difference such a short distance makes around here!

[Hoth]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Didn’t we have white one last year?

Not sure it was white, but it was ridiculously cold. 

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I am 18 miles almost due north from Bridgeport and I pulled off 35ish inches last year....amazing how much of a difference such a short distance makes around here!

Oh for sure. That few hundred feet of extra elevation/distance from the Sound often works to your advantage. 

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

I am 18 miles almost due north from Bridgeport and I pulled off 35ish inches last year....amazing how much of a difference such a short distance makes around here!

That November storm was the post-Sandy snowstorm which was particularly bad because thousands still had no power in my area at the time (NJ). Remember thinking how awesome this winter was going to be until just missing out on the really big totals the Feb 13' epicness delivered that propelled BDR. "Only got 12" lol.

Also, BOS the only one with more positives than negatives although most of those positive departures are under double digits.

[Baroclinic Zone]

24F

[Hoth]

I heard rumors of a SSW event towards the end of the month. Anyone got eyes out that far? Probably just voodoo at this range anyway.

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Farmington, ME looked like that in 1998. 3-5" of ice, three days of freezing rain.

Farmington actually had considerable IP in that event, and though there was considerable damage there, it was much less than places 15-60 miles to the south.  We moved in May 1998 to our current location in the town just east of Farmington, and our 63 forest acres had less cumulative damage than did our 0.8 acre houselot in Gardiner, where it was all ZR.  While scoping out the future Kennebec Highlands acquisition by the state, we encountered a huge difference in damage a bit south of Watson Pond in Rome.  The change was from significant loss of sizable branches (north) to "asparagus trees" to the south - naked trunks surrounded by piles of limbs 6' deep.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I heard rumors of a SSW event towards the end of the month. Anyone got eyes out that far? Probably just voodoo at this range anyway.

Looks like a pretty big heat flux is set to occur towards the end of the GFS run but positioned over Europe. 

This site is incredible...only problem is I don't understand how to interpret many of these tools lol. I think the increasing heat flux corresponds to sudden rises in temp 

[weatherwiz]

The SPV does look to become weakened and sort of elongated moving towards mid-month. Not surprised really with these crazy strong Rossby Waves which have been occurring. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The signal at mid month is legit. 

The Euro run itself obviously is not - not yet anyway.   But, the fact that there is something situated out there in that particular spacial-temporal range is what's paramount there, and could very well be the initial distantly distorted vision in models.

A few individual GFS members are enhancing the N flow/loading into mid latitudes along with a deep nadir in the heights nearing mid month, but from this range that can mean everything from a dry albeit deep cold wave ...to perhaps including a pattern entry event.  

The concepts/previous discussion are still in play.

Overnight AO  wow!   

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The SPV does look to become weakened and sort of elongated moving towards mid-month. Not surprised really with these crazy strong Rossby Waves which have been occurring. 

On the EPS it does elongate at 50mb, but overall is rather cold too. IOW, it's stable. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Random temp observation

28/25/28 last 3 days in Nashua

i thought bedford mass was a better radiating spot than it is but I don’t see that they have dropped below 30 the last two or even 3 days or even this year

 

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ralph is the best at charts

This is cool stuff!  My gut tells me the notion that November snow spoils the winter is a myth.  But I think there may be something to the idea that the relaxations which follow wintry November's tend to cut into peak climate time as the pattern reloads.  Maybe it'd be better to see it broken down by "date of next warning-level event following November snowfall?"

[Typhoon Tip]

22 hours ago, Hoth said:

I heard rumors of a SSW event towards the end of the month. Anyone got eyes out that far? Probably just voodoo at this range anyway.

If there is one, keep in mind that there is a coherent time-lag in the statistical correlation.  Any subsequent forcing on the Arctic Oscillation lags by as much as 20 to 30 days. 

Few know this, or, demonstrate very readily via turns of phrase and deliveries of prose where they've beautifully ( otherwise ) fused the sudden stratospheric warming sciences into their speculative, and I'm like " ...you do realize the effects of SSW are outside your forecast range, right?." 

There is a particularity that needs to be observed, else ... whatever is being observed is more likely to fail coherent forcing on the AO outside of coincident index numerology. 

The warm plume has to propagate downward in time ( i.e., 'downwelling' ).  In every case of SSW graphical layout back to 1979, this downward motion appears to 'spiral' away from a central axial point that begins near the axis of PV rotation, at a very high beginning SIGMA level - typically between 5 and 30 hPa.  As it descends, it will first appear to weaken, before the next node comes in warmer, then fades slightly ... then warmer, each node gaining x-coordinate distance upon each emergence.  That growth in the x-coordinate is a representation of gaining distance from the axis of rotation.  

Notice the ending node is almost faded/indistinquishable in anomaly relative to the surrounding features of the ambient field ( nearing 150 hPa SIGMA) there bottom right along the nodal curve.   That is tropopausal mechanical absorption/ increasing stabilization and suppression of the depths ensues, and that weakens the PV ... "pancaking" and blocking in the mid and upper troposphere ignites.  This entire translation of events, as you can see took ~ from Jan 15th to the end of February ... and we can see in this case a very clear and coherent AO correlation taking place:   

2013 -0.610 -1.007 -3.185  0.322  0.494  0.549 -0.011  0.154 -0.461  0.263  2.029  1.475    ... Bold is March. 

SSW don't really value-add like the popular mantra of the day has it in their mind(s) and bandy about.  If one did take place in the last week of this month... We may be hearing about an AO response some time after Christmas.. which is fine.  But, I also offer that this particular year we may not have much trouble with AO being negative, so it could be lost in the din of a -AO complexion hemisphere anyway.   

[tamarack]

8 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

This is cool stuff!  My gut tells me the notion that November snow spoils the winter is a myth.  But I think there may be something to the idea that the relaxations which follow wintry November's tend to cut into peak climate time as the pattern reloads.  Maybe it'd be better to see it broken down by "date of next warning-level event following November snowfall?"

Not huge sample size but long periods of record, and 3 of 4 sites averaged AN (slightly) for those winters.  To the nearest inch, BOS avg was +2", BDR +3", NYC -4", PHL +1".  Average across all 4 is within 1" of average.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Three consecutive days with a freeze here. Not bad.

it's a tedious nerdiness but I'm always curious when that first pond edge ice forms ...None as of this morning leaving town at dawn, but that was our third morning 25 to 28 F, so despite climbing to the upper 40s or lower 50s by day, with the low sun angles and the longer nights ... I could see us start rimming the ponds soon. 

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

On the EPS it does elongate at 50mb, but overall is rather cold too. IOW, it's stable. 

I guess as long as it remains weak and elongated that would be a good thing? That thing may get shred to pieces if this pattern keeps up lol 

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If there is one, keep in mind that there is a coherent time-lag in the statistical correlation.  Any subsequent forcing on the Arctic Oscillation lags by as much as 20 to 30 days. 

Few know this, or, demonstrate very readily via turns of phrase and deliveries of prose where they've beautifully ( otherwise ) fused the sudden stratospheric warming sciences into their speculative, and I'm like " ...you do realize the effects of SSW are outside your forecast range, right?." 

There is a particularity that needs to be observed, else ... whatever is being observed is more likely to fail coherent forcing on the AO outside of coincident index numerology. 

The warm plume has to propagate downward in time ( i.e., 'downwelling' ).  In every case of SSW graphical layout back to 1979, this downward motion appears to 'spiral' away from a central axial point that begins near the axis of PV rotation, at a very high beginning SIGMA level - typically between 5 and 30 hPa.  As it descends, it will first appear to weaken, before the next node comes in warmer, then fades slightly ... then warmer, each node gaining x-coordinate distance upon each emergence.  That growth in the x-coordinate is a representation of gaining distance from the axis of rotation.  

Notice the ending node is almost faded/indistinquishable in anomaly relative to the surrounding features of the ambient field ( nearing 150 hPa SIGMA) there bottom right along the nodal curve.   That is tropopausal mechanical absorption/ increasing stabilization and suppression of the depths ensues, and that weakens the PV ... "pancaking" and blocking in the mid and upper troposphere ignites.  This entire translation of events, as you can see took ~ from Jan 15th to the end of February ... and we can see in this case a very clear and coherent AO correlation taking place:   

2013 -0.610 -1.007 -3.185  0.322  0.494  0.549 -0.011  0.154 -0.461  0.263  2.029  1.475    ... Bold is March. 

SSW don't really value-add like the popular mantra of the day has it in their mind(s) and bandy about.  If one did take place in the last week of this month... We may be hearing about an AO response some time after Christmas.. which is fine.  But, I also offer that this particular year we may not have much trouble with AO being negative anyway, so it could be lost in the din of a -AO complexion hemisphere anyway.   

This is great! Excellent information 

[Sugarloaf1989]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Farmington actually had considerable IP in that event, and though there was considerable damage there, it was much less than places 15-60 miles to the south.  We moved in May 1998 to our current location in the town just east of Farmington, and our 63 forest acres had less cumulative damage than did our 0.8 acre houselot in Gardiner, where it was all ZR.  While scoping out the future Kennebec Highlands acquisition by the state, we encountered a huge difference in damage a bit south of Watson Pond in Rome.  The change was from significant loss of sizable branches (north) to "asparagus trees" to the south - naked trunks surrounded by piles of limbs 6' deep.

Farmington was were we saw the start of the destruction from the ice storm. It was much worse further South in Jay, Livermore and Turner. Many closed roads and detour's.

Sugarloaf and Kingfield areas were alot more IP than freezing rain. Sugarloaf remains the largest amount of IP I've ever seen, 6".

I might also add this was the coldest freezing rain I've seen. Temperatures at our condo were between 17-25F according to the thermometer at our condo.

[CoastalWx]

Man cold and snow on the op next week. November of Yore. Governor Bradford approved.

[ORH_wxman]

There's some serious cold dropping down next week....if we get a threat for 11/12, I don't think the antecedent airmass will be an issue.

[ORH_wxman]

And yeah....Euro still hitting 11/12-13 pretty hard. Obviously way out there in clown range, but there's been some multi-model support for something lurking in that time frame.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, the bigger signal still looms for mid month ... 

Hard to say if that's this Euro solution as an early albeit gross detection of that potential.