ineedsnow Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 35.7 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 36.0 here, radiating well so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 33.3, down we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 33 at mi casa as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Eps a little flat at 18z. I think it also shows you that’s it’s a bit of a needle threader too. Not a surprise in the early season. Regardless, still early either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Eps a little flat at 18z. I think it also shows you that’s it’s a bit of a needle threader too. Not a surprise in the early season. Regardless, still early either way. Wrong thread “cough” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 We get models earlier again wooo hoo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 27.5° with very thick fog. About 1/4sm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: 27.5° with very thick fog. About 1/4sm right now. Rime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 33 again with frost. Still yet to crack 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Definitely some man cold (sorry Diane) coming next weekend and then maybe another shot the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely some man cold (sorry Diane) coming next weekend and then maybe another shot the week after. Skating for Thanksgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely some man cold (sorry Diane) coming next weekend and then maybe another shot the week after. Makes a lot of noise, comes in fast and lifts out quickly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Rime? A little...not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 It does look absolutely frigid relative to normal going forward starting mid-week. Over the next 16 days GFS 2-meter anomalies look to run roughly -4F or -5F from the Cape to -8F or -9F in NNE mtns. The more impressive stretch is seeing widespread 7-day departure progs from Thurs to the following Thurs of -8F to -16F. This is frigid for week long anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 It does look absolutely frigid relative to normal going forward starting mid-week. Over the next 16 days GFS 2-meter anomalies look to run roughly -4F or -5F from the Cape to -8F or -9F in NNE mtns. The more impressive stretch is seeing widespread 7-day departure progs from Thurs to the following Thurs of -8F to -16F. This is frigid for week long anomalies. Lots of snowmaking days ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It does look absolutely frigid relative to normal going forward starting mid-week. Over the next 16 days GFS 2-meter anomalies look to run roughly -4F or -5F from the Cape to -8F or -9F in NNE mtns. The more impressive stretch is seeing widespread 7-day departure progs from Thurs to the following Thurs of -8F to -16F. This is frigid for week long anomalies. Lots of snowmaking days ahead Maybe PF can start a snow-making thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 Probably have to tack a few degrees on with the cold bias, but it’ll be cold nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably have to tack a few degrees on with the cold bias, but it’ll be cold nonetheless. Ah shit I keep forgetting about that lol. In my head I have it as GFS 2-M runs warm but that’s CAD scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ah shit I keep forgetting about that lol. In my head I have it as GFS 2-M runs warm but that’s CAD scenarios. Yeah it’s got a general cool bias, but loves to flood ORH with the marine layer. Go figure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s got a general cool bias, but loves to flood ORH with the marine layer. Go figure. Yeah, it's always been a progressive/northern stream dominant model. Honestly I think the worst thing they did was release it with the bug in snow accumulation without realizing how much people view those snowfall maps. That spooked the majority of the field into thinking the model got worse. It's really more or less the same model, with only incremental improvements. The thing was it was never really meant to be a model performance upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 The thing with the gfs that bothers me is its inability to see the warm nose. It's useless for mixed precip but that was a thing before and after the fv3 upgrade. It's cold bias is through the whole lower atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 The gdps has the same sfc cold bias but it more properly diagnoses warm noses in the 850 to 700mb layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, it's always been a progressive/northern stream dominant model. Honestly I think the worst thing they did was release it with the bug in snow accumulation without realizing how much people view those snowfall maps. That spooked the majority of the field into thinking the model got worse. It's really more or less the same model, with only incremental improvements. The thing was it was never really meant to be a model performance upgrade. It’s been pretty bad in the 3-7 day period. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve said “oh look it’s moving towards the euro..” when looking ahead for risk outlooks etc. Maybe this time the GFS gets a win. From a met community standpoint, it really brings down the value of the meteorologist when you have one dominant medium range model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 54 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ah shit I keep forgetting about that lol. In my head I have it as GFS 2-M runs warm but that’s CAD scenarios. It’s better than the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s been pretty bad in the 3-7 day period. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve said “oh look it’s moving towards the euro..” when looking ahead for risk outlooks etc. Maybe this time the GFS gets a win. From a met community standpoint, it really brings down the value of the meteorologist when you have one dominant medium range model. I realize it's expensive to move towards something like the Euro, but honestly given how much money can be saved/lost with weather I'm surprised that we try and pinch (relative) pennies for hybrid 4D EnVar on the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, it's always been a progressive/northern stream dominant model. Honestly I think the worst thing they did was release it with the bug in snow accumulation without realizing how much people view those snowfall maps. That spooked the majority of the field into thinking the model got worse. It's really more or less the same model, with only incremental improvements. The thing was it was never really meant to be a model performance upgrade. This is true ... I mean, not that I was questioning you or anything, just offering that I read the PDF prior to the release and that was clearly stated, that - perhaps beyond the one metric you mentioned - the model was supposed to at least 'not be worse' - which obviously means breaking even. It's interesting operational philosophy there in that ... why? I suspect it's 'platform' -related? As in, they do have improved versions but somehow need that one incrementally layered. Spit-ballin' there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is true ... I mean, not that I was questioning you or anything, just offering that I read the PDF prior to the release and that was clearly stated, that - perhaps beyond the one metric you mentioned - the model was supposed to at least 'not be worse' - which obviously means breaking even. It's interesting operational philosophy there in that ... why? I suspect it's 'platform' -related? As in, they do have improved versions but somehow need that one incrementally layered. Spit-ballin' there. The major overhaul was the guts of the model. The idea being to make it easier to perform upgrades in the future. So aside from a few tweaks to schemes and parameterization nothing was fundamentally changed with how the GFS forecasts the weather. I think the grand plan is to crowdsource GFS improvements. They are planning to make the code widely available publicly and allow people to try and make improvements that can then be shared back to NCEP. Color me skeptical about how that's going to work (definitely opens up a back door (front door?) into gov't computers, are programmers going to want some sort of credit for big breakthroughs, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The major overhaul was the guts of the model. The idea being to make it easier to perform upgrades in the future. So aside from a few tweaks to schemes and parameterization nothing was fundamentally changed with how the GFS forecasts the weather. I think the grand plan is to crowdsource GFS improvements. They are planning to make the code widely available publicly and allow people to try and make improvements that can then be shared back to NCEP. Color me skeptical about how that's going to work (definitely opens up a back door (front door?) into gov't computers, are programmers going to want some sort of credit for big breakthroughs, etc). Yeah..that's exactly where I was going with the previous, " As in, they do have improved versions but somehow need that one incrementally layered "... blah blah... Well, it's progress. Hey, did you apply/test your algorithm during that WCB wind event the other day? I was curious how that thing would work in a better mixed quasi barotropic air mass - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hey, did you apply/test your algorithm during that WCB wind event the other day? I was curious how that thing would work in a better mixed quasi barotropic air mass - I did. We got two balloon launches that had the 45+ knot criteria at 925/850 from a direction other than NW. With the 01.00z 4 hour launch window the regression was 0.5 knots off (27 obs at PWM, 26.5 forecast), and with the 01.12z 4 hour launch window the regression was 5 knots off (41 obs, 36 forecast). I think the results are strong enough that I'm comfortable using it with model data for all parts of the forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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