powderfreak Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: They may not hit 10% of that. Still time to buy your timeshare condo but Stowe is using up all it’s QOF quota in the offseason! lol we are in trouble if the Picnic Tables can’t get 7 more inches by Nov 30th. I’ll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: lol we are in trouble if the Picnic Tables can’t get 7 more inches by Nov 30th. I’ll take the over. Yeah... that’s a slingshot in the opposite direction. And I’m not surprised with what you said in your previous post about skiers on social media. Everyone takes the best case scenario and attempts to contort themselves into believing it’s normal and will happen every year. Not too dissimilar to what we see on this forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: lol we are in trouble if the Picnic Tables can’t get 7 more inches by Nov 30th. I’ll take the over. Yeah, that was a little out on the limb but I don’t think we all get rocking until early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Last November was literally all-time when you put it all together. Brutal cold, tons of snow, huge snowpack. Only November since records began in 1954 with a 40” or higher snow depth. Not surprising we won’t see that again. But yeah skiers on social are acting like last Oct/Nov was normal and should be expected. I just mentioned it bc I don’t believe most people realize how epic late Late October and November were at Mansfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I just mentioned it bc I don’t believe most people realize how epic late Late October and November were at Mansfield Ha I figured most were tired of hearing about it. But last year was a record November all around. Like TauntonBlizz mentioned, folks do take the best case scenario and run with it. Instead of skiing glades in November, “normal” is skiing 1 or 2 white ribbons down with maybe a few inches of natural and grass blades showing through. This season is progressing about normal and folks act like we are way behind lol. Normal high temp in town is still in the 50s (51F).... that’s been blowing people’s minds lately when I tell them that. It’s like folks think highs should be 30-35F on Nov 1st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha I figured most were tired of hearing about it. But last year was a record November all around. Like TauntonBlizz mentioned, folks do take the best case scenario and run with it. Instead of skiing glades in November, “normal” is skiing 1 or 2 white ribbons down with maybe a few inches of natural and grass blades showing through. This season is progressing about normal and folks act like we are way behind lol. Normal high temp in town is still in the 50s (51F).... that’s been blowing people’s minds lately when I tell them that. It’s like folks think highs should be 30-35F on Nov 1st. It’s even like that here. Folks look at mid November and expect 30s for a high....12-15 below normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s even like that here. Folks look at mid November and expect 30s for a high....12-15 below normal Last week I was walking the dog on the Rec Path and ran into a friend who was commenting on how incredibly mild it was at 55F and sunny. I said hang on, looked up the 30-year normal max at MVL and it was 54F at the time. He couldn’t believe it, what he thought was incredibly mild was spot on normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s even like that here. Folks look at mid November and expect 30s for a high....12-15 below normal It has been a real mild one here in civilization. bos 2.9 bdl 2.2 pvd 1.3 orh .7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ok, let me ask you something ... what happens if we apply a subtle correction to atone for the Euro bias? Thing is, it would not take much to get the flow down stream N of the Lakes into a confluence with that arm of polar high extending east of the initial -EPO load. Beyond D6 .. I dunno man that's dangerous look for the whole U..S actually. Lots of possibilities there.. I mean I get it it's hard maybe to see outside that box but the model was too far west with this pattern change; how could we forget. We said the Euro could be too deep in the SW several times. Well.. One thing I will note..the flow is fast - let's not forget that. Embedded impulse works ( not that anyone said otherwise ) are liable to be an open wave bottle rocket variety. Hi john. I am from Arkansas. I have a question. What do we need to see take place for the flow to slow down from being so fast like you have mentioned many times so far. Is it a -nao or more than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 6 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: It has been a real mild one here in civilization. bos 2.9 bdl 2.2 pvd 1.3 orh .7 What’s BED and OWD? BOS has their issues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: What’s BED and OWD? BOS has their issues.... I'd like to see some other areas near ORH at 1K. I'm not sold on ORH being totally accurate, but I would need evidence. There's definitely evidence with BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd like to see some other areas near ORH at 1K. I'm not sold on ORH being totally accurate, but I would need evidence. There's definitely evidence with BOS. I’m near there and their elevation . No issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m near there and their elevation . No issues I'm sure you keep pristine climo records. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 My bad, I had a slight error of judgement, Dendrite is right, that was the old version of the GFS. I really haven't paid attention to the new version, that is my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd like to see some other areas near ORH at 1K. I'm not sold on ORH being totally accurate, but I would need evidence. There's definitely evidence with BOS. I’m with you, it definitely sticks out. Not as bad as Boston obviously... but it does seem rather cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m with you, it definitely sticks out. Not as bad as Boston obviously... but it does seem rather cool. I just looked and it's +1 right now. That looks better than 0.5 or whatever it was earlier. PVD is 1.5 so it looks more realistic. BOS still is LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 24 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: torch Love it. Keep it up until Turkalurk Dae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Love it. Keep it up until Turkalurk Dae Yeah, could do without the rain but this is awesome otw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 9 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: It has been a real mild one here in civilization. bos 2.9 bdl 2.2 pvd 1.3 orh .7 Maybe it's my hang-up, but to me temp departures of <2° aren't "real" mild or "real" cool. I'm going to finish about -0.2°, about as close to dead-on average as one might expect. (Today's avg here is 49/30 and I expect it to verify about +12.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: Maybe it's my hang-up, but to me temp departures of <2° aren't "real" mild or "real" cool. I'm going to finish about -0.2°, about as close to dead-on average as one might expect. (Today's avg here is 49/30 and I expect it to verify about +12.) Departures plus sensible wx. Without cold nights and few to no 70's and 80's to skew, it has been quite mild and with remarkable consistency. Speaking for here. Undeniable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 11 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Departures plus sensible wx. Without cold nights and few to no 70's and 80's to skew, it has been quite mild and with remarkable consistency. Speaking for here. Undeniable. You just gave the statistics that refute this assertion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 I have had 4 mornings below freezing including a 29 here. Definitely mild overall but the frost/ freeze timing seemed pretty normal around here. Edit: actually 5 lows below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 And for the record-normal first freeze at KBOS is 11/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Lowest here 34.2...well outside of the tarmac. Undoubtedly a mild month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The 3 months ASO have all featured modest extremes. August topped out at 79 and September at 76, each tying the coolest max of my 22 years' record for those months. October peaked at 64, 2nd lowest max but the 41° span from mildest/coolest is the smallest for this month. (Median extremes are 73.5/19.5.) Ironically, the extremes came on consecutive days, 23 on 10/20 and 64 on the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 17 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Lowest here 34.2...well outside of the tarmac. Undoubtedly a mild month. It’s been above normal but not that noteworthy. It feels (to me) like fall is behaving as it should. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s been above normal but not that noteworthy. It feels (to me) like fall is behaving as it should. I absolutely agree. It’s been beautiful for the most part...not unusual one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 38 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Lowest here 34.2...well outside of the tarmac. Undoubtedly a mild month. If you don't radiate then it's even a bit late for freeze. But the Lowell coop up there actually had first freeze 10/6. That's earlier than their 10/14 average. But they are clearly a rad spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 9 hours ago, powderfreak said: Last November was literally all-time when you put it all together. Brutal cold, tons of snow, huge snowpack. But yeah skiers on social are acting like last Oct/Nov was normal and should be expected. 9 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I just mentioned it bc I don’t believe most people realize how epic late Late October and November were at Mansfield October may be getting a bit too much credit by association with the amazing November; the notable tie in was that bit of snow we got at the very tail end (last couple days) of the month that carried over into the first part of November. And, looking at the stake data, the snow depth did briefly go back to zero on November 7th, so it’s not even one of those seasons where the “official” Mansfield snowpack started in October (although it’s possible there were still traces around during that snowpack nadir). The Northern Greens had six accumulating storms last October, which I’m sure is above average in number and indeed notable, but none of them were actually that significant locally. I got out for just one day of skiing that month, and it was a fun low-angle tour, but conditions were pretty marginal compared to what we’ve had during many other Octobers. Here’s a quote from my final report for last October: “We’ve had numerous rounds of snow in the mountains over the past couple of weeks, but none of the storms have been the type that really put down a big dump of 6 to 12 inches or more at once.” I’d certainly categorize last October as “good”, but I’d say it’s hard categorize any of it as epic without at least one of those beefier storms. Of course, a couplet of a decent October and an absolutely outstanding November is a great way to start off the first couple months of the ski season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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