Torch Tiger Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 banger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 With each run this feature that follows the Midwest storm (a few days ago it looked like a massive phase) gains a bit more separation, and edges a wee bit closer to causing mischief out east: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 I was shocked to see HWW's already up off the lakes in NY, but I just looked at some of the bufkit soundings for ROC, BUF, and SYR and HOLY CRAP. Could see gusts 60-80 mph per bufkit soundings lol...sustained 25-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Forward that look in about one month. I agree It can wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 EPS are pretty cold 11/7 onward. Coldest look yet. Maybe first flakes watch? Usually our first flakes are some windex or psuedo-windex crap from a deep upper trough. But maybe we can sneak something bigger in like 2012 or last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Looks pretty chilly this run. No snow for Kevin’s birthday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Its starting to come together, Nov being Nov, Second week is generally when it starts up here most winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks pretty chilly this run. No snow for Kevin’s birthday though. I’ll die without it other than OTG in 2011. We ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 1 hour ago, 512high said: Ya, we had two events here last November, then looked what happened the rest of the winter........................ No two patterns are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: It doesnt have a bad pattern for our area. A lot of areas are going to see snow in November. Hopefully it's not a bad sign. Has not been a great sign here, but sss. We've had November events greater than 3" in 6 of 21 snow seasons, 02, 05, 09, 11, 14, 18. Those 6 included 2 AN, 3 BN, one ratter (05-06) with the 6-year average at 87% of that for all 21 while the other 15 average 105%. (79" vs. 96") Further limiting that small sample to events of 6"+ drops 05 and 09 and leaves the other 4 at 99% of the overall. Looks like a pretty weak indicator at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Hopefully the finest line ever Thursday night into Friday... Deepening mid level low lifts NE across the Gt Lakes and into Canada. Main surface low will be tracking well to the north with attending cold sweeping across SNE late Thu night into early Fri. Robust low level jet increasing and peaking around 70+ kts as it crosses NE New Eng late Thu night/early Fri. Wind and PWAT anomalies 4-5SD above normal which is a strong signal for a period of heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. Some elevated instability exists so potential for a fine line of convection along the front as it sweeps through. Further details will become available on Wed as event is captured within the time range of the hi-res CAMs. Temps will be quite mild Thu night ahead of the front with readings well into the 60s and may top out around 70 in eastern New Eng. This will help to enhance low level mixing with potential for strong to damaging wind gusts in eastern New Eng which would be enhanced if any convective fine line develops. Wind headlines may be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 I've been meaning to start a thread for that low topped convection but I've been quite busy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll die without it other than OTG in 2011. We ok It’s not like it is a deep winter birthday. Hopefully you live long enough that it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS are pretty cold 11/7 onward. Coldest look yet. Maybe first flakes watch? Usually our first flakes are some windex or psuedo-windex crap from a deep upper trough. But maybe we can sneak something bigger in like 2012 or last year. The ol' instability popcorn cells type snow showers as the ULL moves overhead, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 Happy to be here and once again report-it’s coming! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Happy to be here and once again report-it’s coming! Smashed the "like" button. Bring it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 In by the 15th, Completed by the 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 The other great thing about hitting November is we switch back to EST and the model runs are 1 hr earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: In by the 15th, Completed by the 25th? We Crown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Will be nice to get an earlier sunrise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 6 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I was shocked to see HWW's already up off the lakes in NY, but I just looked at some of the bufkit soundings for ROC, BUF, and SYR and HOLY CRAP. Could see gusts 60-80 mph per bufkit soundings lol...sustained 25-40 Could be pretty bad. Lake levels on Erie are very high so lakeshore flooding might be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Could be pretty bad. Lake levels on Erie are very high so lakeshore flooding might be severe. Yeah this could be pretty significant right off the lakes. I was shocked to see soundings so impressive right now. Could see tropical storm force sustained and hurricane force gusts. good point about the lake flooding potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Will be nice to get an earlier sunrise. The days should really start cooling off now once the sun starts setting at 430. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 6 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: banger Check out those PWATs. That would be pushing a November RAOB record for GYX and CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Check out those PWATs. That would be pushing a November RAOB record for GYX and CHH. Not bad. 71/65 ktan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Not bad. 71/65 ktan? For those who haven't uninstalled yet you may as well wait until this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 That is a cutter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 32 minutes ago, dendrite said: The days should really start cooling off now once the sun starts setting at 430. Just 8 weeks until days start getting longer. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Just 8 weeks until days start getting longer. I already have sun angle concerns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 50 minutes ago, dendrite said: For those who haven't uninstalled yet you may as well wait until this weekend. It's going to be noticeable. Humid evening and night. I actually am looking forward to being able to open the sliding doors and not pay for heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now