Hurricane Agnes Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 ...SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.8N 32.2W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 32.2 West. Pablo is moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed. On this track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the Azores this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated, and Pablo is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days to the northeast of the Azores. Pablo is a very small cyclone and its tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252036 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 High-resolution visible satellite imagery gave us a surprise today. A tropical cyclone has formed within a larger extratropical cyclone in the northeastern Atlantic. This is not unique and has occurred several times in the past, primarily during the latter part of the hurricane season. Pablo is a very small-scale tropical cyclone, but ASCAT data clearly show a well-defined but small circulation with 40-kt winds embedded within the larger low. This is the intensity assigned to the cyclone for this advisory. The cloud pattern consists of an eye-type feature surrounded by a ring of deep convection. Given the small size of the cyclone, and the baroclinic environment, the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. At this time, the NHC forecast calls for a small increase in the winds and for the cyclone to become extratropical in about 36 hours. However, this transition could occur sooner than anticipated. Pablo is currently moving toward the east-southeast at about 9 kt while embedded within the circulation of the larger extratropical low. Pablo should then turn toward the northeast with some increase in forward speed, as indicated by the multi-model consensus aids. In fact, all the models are in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 35.8N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 35.3N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 36.3N 26.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 40.0N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 5 am AST update (generally no change except slight slowing of forward speed and expected to be extra-tropical in a few days) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 ...PABLO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.3N 30.3W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 30.3 West. Pablo is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the east is expected this morning, followed by a faster northeastward or north-northeastward motion later today and Sunday. On the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the Azores tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated, and Pablo is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260837 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo remains a small cyclone, and recently the eye-like feature that was noted in earlier satellite images is no longer evident. Since the system continues to have an area of deep convection concentrated near the center, it should still be classified as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity is held at 40 kt, in general agreement with the most recent estimate from TAFB, and pending a new scatterometer overpass. Pablo is embedded within a much larger cyclonic circulation that is also producing gale-force winds well to the north and northwest of the center. The tropical storm is moving a little south of east at around 8 kt. A turn toward the northeast and north is expected over the next couple of days as Pablo moves around the periphery of a large deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one but slightly slower than the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to support deep convection. However, by 36 hours the cyclone will be passing over waters of 18 deg C or colder. This should result in the system becoming an extratropical low around that time. In 2-3 days, the global models show the post-tropical low merging with a larger low over the north Atlantic. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 35.3N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 36.6N 27.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 39.5N 23.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/0600Z 45.3N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0600Z 47.5N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 This was Levi's tweet yesterday about what is now Pablo - Of course it looks to be jamming up against a trough and will probably sheer away. I circled where I believe it is - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 11 am AST update (Pablo has strengthened a bit and has sped up - but expected to be post-tropical by Monday) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261439 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 ...PABLO SLIGHTLY STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 28.1W ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 28.1 West. Pablo is moving toward the east near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the eastern Azores tonight. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated, and Pablo is expected to become an extratropical cyclone on Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261440 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The small cyclone is maintaining an area of banded convection near the center, and there have been occasional appearances of an eye-like feature. Recent scatterometer overpasses show several wind vectors of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt. The initial motion is now 090/14, a little faster than before. Pablo is expected to turn northeastward during the next few hours, with the small core of the storm passing near or over the eastern Azores tonight. After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually northwestward as it, as well as the surrounding larger low pressure area, become steered by another mid-latitude low pressure area developing over the north central Atlantic. The first 24 h of the new forecast track is adjusted somewhat to the east of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, with only small changes made thereafter. The new track lies near the various consensus models. Little significant change in strength is expected during the next 24 h or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to support deep convection. After that time, colder sea surface temperatures, increasing shear, and a developing frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming extratropical. The global models continue to forecast the system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the intensity forecast shows dissipation during that time. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 35.2N 28.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 37.4N 25.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 40.8N 22.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 43.5N 21.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/1200Z 45.3N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 Kinda interesting - a "tiny" tropical storm in the middle of a big low - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 27, 2019 Author Share Posted October 27, 2019 5 pm AST update (continues slow strengthening and and is moving to the NE) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 ...PABLO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 25.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 25.6 West. Pablo is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north- northeast and north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the eastern Azores during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Pablo is likely to become extratropical late Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262031 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with a small eye becoming somewhat better defined. However, the various satellite intensity estimates have remained near 45 kt. Based on the increased organization since the the 40-45 kt winds seen in earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is now set at 50 kt. Pablo has turned northeastward and accelerated, with the initial motion now 055/22. This motion should bring the small core of the storm near or over the eastern Azores during the next several hours. After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually northwestward as a developing mid-latitude low to the west becomes the dominant steering mechanism. The guidance has shifted a bit to the east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to, but east of, the previous forecast. Pablo should slow weaken as it moves into an environment of colder sea surface temperatures and increasing shear, and a developing frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming extratropical by 36 h. The global models continue to forecast the system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the intensity forecast again shows dissipation during that time. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 36.3N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 39.3N 22.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 42.7N 20.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 44.9N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/1800Z 46.3N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 27, 2019 Author Share Posted October 27, 2019 Pablo continues to strengthen and is booking it past the Azores - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270831 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 ...PABLO STRENGTHENS WHILE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 20.0W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM ENE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 20.0 West. Pablo is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through this morning. A turn toward the north-northeast and north is forecast this afternoon and tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon, and Pablo is expected to become post-tropical by tonight or early Monday. Pablo remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 270832 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Pablo has maintained a small mid-level eye feature for at least the past 18 hours, and the eye has also been evident in infrared imagery for the past 6 hours. The most recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimate was T3.0, which was held down due to constraints even though the eye pattern supports an intensity of 65 kt. Latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT and SATCON intensity estimates are T4.4/75 kt and 64 kt, respectively. Based on a blend of the TAFB and UW-CIMSS values, along with the 5- to 8-nmi-diameter eye, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt, which could be conservative due to the the cyclone's relatively fast forward speed. Pablo has continued to accelerate and the initial motion estimate is now 045/35 kt. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement that during the next 48 hours, Pablo should slow down while making a counter-clockwise track around the northeastern periphery of the larger extratropical low that the small cyclone is embedded within. The tightly packed guidance suite has shifted to the right of the previous advisory track, and the new NHC forecast track has been adjusted in that direction, close to the various consensus models. Pablo is currently located over 20 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST), with colder water near 15 deg C ahead of the cyclone. Model forecast soundings indicate that mid- and upper-level temperatures will be warming, and when combined with the cooler SSTs, will result in stabilization of the troposphere. This will cause convection to steadily weaken and erode by 12 h, resulting in Pablo degenerating into a post-tropical extratropical low pressure system in 24 h, if not sooner. The small cyclone is forecast to dissipate or become absorbed by the larger parent extratropical low in the 48-72 h forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 40.7N 20.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 43.8N 17.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 46.2N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 28/1800Z 46.9N 18.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/0600Z 48.3N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart MW still popping an eye here and there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Another tropical system in the far northeast Atlantic...it seems every year we get closer to Europe with these systems and with climate change I have to think we will eventually have European landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Pablo now a hurricane 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 27 Location: 42.8°N 18.3°W Moving: NNE at 32 mph Min pressure: 983 mb Max sustained: 75 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Water temp is in the upper 60s where Pablo is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 056 WTNT43 KNHC 271450 TCDAT3 Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Satellite imagery shows that Pablo has continued to maintain a small eye, and that the eyewall cloud tops have recently cooled. In addition, early morning microwave satellite intensity estimates, as well as the CIMSS satellite consensus, indicate that Pablo has become a hurricane. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt as a blend between the subjective estimate from TAFB and the higher SATCON estimate, and it is possible this is a little conservative. The intensification has occurred while Pablo is over sea surface temperatures of 19-20C, and it is likely that cold mid- to upper-level air temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain deep convection and strengthen over water temperatures where tropical cyclones normally weaken. The initial motion is now 030/28. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion as it approaches a frontal system to the north during the next 12-24 h, and this will be followed by a turn toward the northwest as a large mid-latitude low over the north central Atlantic becomes the main steering mechanism. The track guidance has again shifted a little to the east, and the new forecast track is also nudged a little to the east of the previous track. Like the previous forecast, it lies close to the various consensus models. Pablo should encounter even colder water along the forecast track, and global model guidance suggests it should merge with the frontal system between 12-24 h. This combination should cause Pablo to weaken and become an extratropical cyclone. Thereafter, the system should be absorbed by the much larger low to its west between 48-72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 42.8N 18.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 45.3N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 46.9N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0000Z 47.9N 18.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1200Z 49.5N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Cute little cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 27, 2019 Author Share Posted October 27, 2019 11 am advisory (as noted, now a hurricane) - Quote 733 WTNT33 KNHC 271449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Pablo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 ...PABLO BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.8N 18.3W ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pablo was located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 18.3 West. Pablo is moving toward the north-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h), and this motion should continue with a decrease in forward speed today. A turn toward the north and northwest and an additional decrease in forward speed are expected tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon, and Pablo is expected to become post-tropical on Monday. Pablo remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 34 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Cute little cane. From @HurricaneJosh's Twitter (love the term by the way Josh!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Another new hurricane record to add to the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 BULLETIN Hurricane Pablo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 ...PABLO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.7N 17.2W ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 27, 2019 Author Share Posted October 27, 2019 5 pm discussion (at some point it will be impacted by that huge hurricane-looking low to its west) - Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272032 TCDAT3 Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Pablo continues to have a remarkably impressive appearance for a tropical cyclone over such cold waters. The hurricane's eye remains evident in most satellite imagery channels, with a solid ring of cloud tops colder than 50C surrounding it. This maintenance of the deep convection can be attributed to an environment of very cold temperatures aloft, which can allow for the hurricane to remain intact over waters colder than those typically observed. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains unchanged from 6 hours ago, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have increased slightly. The initial advisory intensity has been increased to 70 kt, and this could be a little conservative. There are strong low-level easterlies associated with a baroclinic zone and frontal boundary located a couple hundred miles north of Pablo. The hurricane is expected to begin interacting with this zone soon, which combined with even cooler waters should make the cyclone lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. The system is then expected to become absorbed by the circulation of a much larger low as it approaches from the west in a couple of days. The initial motion is now 020/20 kt. There is significant spread in the model guidance beyond 24 hours, as the ECMWF and UKMET turn the post-tropical cyclone to the northeast, while the remainder of the guidance turns it northwest. The official forecast follows the majority of the guidance and the previous forecast. In this scenario, Pablo is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion tonight as it approaches the frontal zone. Then, a turn toward the northwest on Monday is expected as the larger low to its west begins to steer the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 44.7N 17.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 11 pm update (hiccuped down to a TS) - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 ...PABLO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TUESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.0N 17.1W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 46.0 North, longitude 17.1 West. Pablo is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northward motion is expected later tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Pablo should transition to a post-tropical cyclone Monday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN Quote ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, deep convection associated with Pablo finally began to decrease in both coverage and organization. Convection has become confined to the southern portion of the circulation and the eye is no longer apparent in conventional satellite imagery, although a low-level eye feature was still noted in a recent GMI microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB. Pablo is approaching a frontal boundary that lies just to the north of the cyclone, and is also moving over SSTs of around 17C. This should cause the deep convection to continue to wane overnight, and Pablo is expected to become extratropical when it merges with the aforementioned front on Tuesday. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a much larger extratropical low to its west by Tuesday morning. Recent microwave and satellite fixes show that Pablo's forward speed has begun to slow as expected, and its initial motion is now north or 360/12 kt. The dynamical models indicate that Pablo will continue to decelerate overnight as it moves generally northward. A slow northward motion should then continue on Monday as Pablo merges with the frontal zone and becomes post-tropical. The 12- and 24-h forecast wind radii were adjusted outward to account for the area of gale-force winds north of the frontal boundary that Pablo is expected to merge with late Monday or early Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 46.0N 17.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 47.0N 17.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/0000Z 48.2N 17.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 5 am update (like a nova releasing all its energy and collapsing) - Quote 390 WTNT33 KNHC 280833 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 ...PABLO CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.6N 17.5W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 46.6 North, longitude 17.5 West. Pablo is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until Pablo dissipates Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Pablo should transition to a post-tropical cyclone later this morning and dissipate on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Quote 357 WTNT43 KNHC 280835 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 Convection associated with Pablo has decreased significantly in both coverage and vertical depth during the past 6 hours, and the system barely meets the convective criterion to be classified as a tropical cyclone. What bit of convection that does remain is limited to the southeastern quadrant. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on a TAFB T-number classification of T3.0/45 kt and an earlier ASCAT pass that showed some 45-kt vectors present in the southeastern quadrant. Pablo made a jog toward the northwest since the previous advisory, but the small cyclone now appears to be moving slowly northward or 360/04 kt. The latest model guidance remains in reasonable agreement that Pablo and its remnants will move slowly northward for the next day or so around the northeastern periphery of a large extratropical centered several hundred miles to the southwest. Pablo is expected to merge with the frontal zone and become post-tropical later today. Some additional weakening is likely during the next 24 hours due to Pablo moving over even cooler sea-surface temperatures than the 16.5 deg C water that the cyclone is currently passing over. Pablo's 34-kt wind radii have been separated from the larger parent extratropical low's wind field based on late-arriving ASCAT surface wind data that indicated that Pablo's small wind field a had detached from the larger wind radii associated with the broad extratropical low. Additional information on this complex low pressure system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA National Weather Service High Seas Forecasts under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 46.6N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 47.3N 17.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/0600Z 48.1N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 11 am update (now post-tropical and last advisory being issued) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 281438 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 ...COLD WATERS FINALLY TAKE THEIR TOLL ON PABLO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.8N 17.7W ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo was located near latitude 46.8 North, longitude 17.7 West. Pablo is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow north to northwest motion is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. Gale-force winds, some of which are not directly associated with Pablo, are expected to persist well to the north of the cyclone through at least Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Pablo. Additional information on this system can be found in: High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at: metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. $$ Forecaster Latto Quote 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281440 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 Cold waters of 16C and increasing shear caused the deep convection near Pablo's center to dissipate early this morning, and the cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and showers. This lack of deep convection has caused Pablo to now become post-tropical. A recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 30 to 35 kt winds northwest of the center of Pablo, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on those data. In addition, the scatterometer data showed a much larger area of gale-force winds well to the north of, but not directly associated with Pablo. The post-tropical cyclone will move slowly north to northwest over the next day or so, until it is absorbed by a much larger mid-latitude low to its west. The gales occurring north of the Pablo are expected to persist at least until it is absorbed. Additional information on this system can be found in: High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 46.8N 17.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 29/0000Z 47.4N 17.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/1200Z 48.5N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto Almost November, way up in the N. Atlantic, and shorter days, means cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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