yoda Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 94.4W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings associated with this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 94.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and the depression could become a tropical storm this afternoon. The cyclone is then expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds associated with this system should spread over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The depression and rainfall ahead of the system along and north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. These rains may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast. Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for additional information. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, a cluster of strong convection is located near and to the northeast of the low-level center. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seventeen. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, and it is possible based on last night's scatterometer data that this is conservative. A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days, with the center crossing the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. A surface cold front associated with the baroclinic trough is quickly approaching the center of the depression, and the tropical cyclone is expected to merge with the front during the next 12 h. Based on this, the cyclone is expected to become a gale-force post-tropical low before it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The low should weaken after landfall, with dissipation expected just after 48 h. There is a chance that the system could briefly become a tropical storm this afternoon before it merges with the cold front. However, even if this occurs it will make little difference to the impacts on the northern Gulf coast. Key messages: 1. Since depression is expected to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.6N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 28.2N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1200Z 32.6N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 38.1N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z 43.2N 85.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Pretty tight cluster! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Tornado warning for Harrison county MS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Posted in the other thread - you can see the swirl in the SW quadrant of the blob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 This system is interesting. It's a solid tropical cyclone with deep convection at the center, but there is a strong cold front crashing in from the west, approaching the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Nice write up by MOB on the tornado threat. Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATEDNational Weather Service Mobile AL1111 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below.&&.UPDATE...A complicated synoptic pattern exists over the localarea. First off, a warm front was draped from off the Louisianacoast up across the MS Sound, east northeast to the I-10 corridorover the northwest FL Panhandle. Tornado watch is in effect thru 4pm this afternoon over the western half of the local area. A briefdiscussion on notable late AM mesoscale analysis data shows bulkshear magnitudes 35 to 50 kts from the MS sound northward over thewatch area. Co-located with this area, 0-1km storm relativehelicity values range from 200-300 m2/s2 mostly north of the warmfront, while the highest instability resides south of the warmfront where a strong gradient of mixed layer capes of 1000-2000J/KG is positioned from the coast, southward out over the marinearea. Along the warm front and the strongly backed low level flow,there is an increased potential for any updrafts lifting up offthe Gulf and across the coast to stretch and tighten as cellsapproach and move across the boundary where the low levelhelicity begins to increase. Tornadoes can spin up quickly in thisenvironment.Tropical depression 17 has formed over the southwest Gulf and theexpectation is that as this feature gains latitude, it will mergewith a cold front approaching slowly from the west and transitioninto a post-tropical cyclone. No coastal tropical hazards at thistime due to the expected transition, but may result in thenecessity of the issuance of a gale warning over portions of themarine area and perhaps a high surf warning. That decision will bemade this afternoon.Heavy rain threat continues. No changes made to flash floodwatches. High risk of dangerous to potentially deadly ripcurrents continues. /10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I’m sure this is going to sound stupid but...why no update since 10? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Olga has been born - Quote 000 WTNT32 KNHC 252034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olga Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM OLGA... ...EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 93.2W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings associated with this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olga was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. Olga is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Olga should move over the northern Gulf coast late tonight or early Saturday and then move through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys later Saturday through Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Olga is expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low with gale-force winds during the next few hours before the center reaches the Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that a large area of gale-force winds is occurring to the west of the cold front that is currently just west of Olga. The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds associated with Olga and its remnants should spread over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Olga, its remnants, and rainfall ahead of the system along and north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. These rains may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast. Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for additional information. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Quote 000 WTNT42 KNHC 252035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Olga Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Although Tropical Depression Seventeen began looking less and less like a tropical cyclone in satellite imagery, scatterometer data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that so far the tropical cyclone remains just ahead of the approaching cold front, with the aircraft showing the front located about 25 n mi from the center in the southwestern quadrant. In addition, the aircraft and scatterometer data indicate that the cyclone's winds have increased to 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant. Based on this, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Olga. It should be noted that a large area of 35-45 kt winds is occurring west of the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico, although these winds are more due to the cold air surging across the Gulf than to the cyclone's circulation. Olga has begun its expected acceleration toward the north-northeast with the initial motion now 030/16. A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states should steer the cyclone generally north-northeastward with an additional increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The center is expected to cross the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning and eventually reach the eastern Great Lakes by late Sunday. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the east of the previous one based on the initial position and motion through 36 h and an eastward shift in the guidance at 48 h. All indications are that Olga will complete extratropical transition during the next few hours as it merges with the cold front. The intensity forecast shows slight strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that the winds west of the cold front remain strong as they wrap into the circulation of Olga. The post-tropical low should weaken after landfall, and it is expected to dissipate just after the 48-h point. Key messages: 1. Since Olga is expected to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 26.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 29.8N 91.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1800Z 35.2N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0600Z 40.1N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1800Z 44.5N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 There are some respectable tropical-storm force wind gusts to 43 kt at the place that has the temperature of 81 in this image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 5 hours ago, NavarreDon said: I’m sure this is going to sound stupid but...why no update since 10? . Since there were no watches or warnings in effect, advisories are issued at the normal hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Since there were no watches or warnings in effect, advisories are issued at the normal hoursDuh!!! Thank you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 As of 10 pm CDT last night, Olga went post-tropical - Quote ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 ...OLGA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 92.2W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings associated with this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). Olga is forecast to move quickly northward to north-northeastward on Saturday and then turn northeastward late Saturday or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will move up the Mississippi Valley tomorrow and toward the Great Lakes later this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected after the cyclone moves over land Saturday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and surface observations over the northern Gulf of Mexico is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds associated with Olga and its remnants should spread over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The post-tropical cyclone, along with rainfall ahead of the system along and north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast, is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley through Saturday morning. These rains may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley. COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast. Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for additional information. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Saturday morning across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and western Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Additional information about heavy rainfall and wind gusts can be found in storm summary products issued by the Weather Prediction Center at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN Quote ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Earlier this evening, the last 2 passes through Olga made by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the cyclone becoming embedded within a cold front. Strong northwesterly flow was observed within 10 n mi northwest of Olga's center and a sharp temperature and dew point gradient was measured across the cyclone. It does not appear that Olga has separated from the front in any significant way since the plane left. In fact, recent surface observations suggest that either the front passes through the center of the cyclone or its circulation has become poorly defined. Based on all these data, Olga is now classified as post-tropical and this is the last NHC advisory. Since Olga is entangled with the front, the winds and seas associated the front are now considered to be representative of the overall system. The intensity of the post-tropical cyclone is set at 45 kt based on SFMR winds of 48 kt and flight-level winds of 54 kt found by the plane behind the front. No substantial change in Olga's strength is anticipated before it reaches the coast Saturday morning, and the winds should decrease quickly thereafter. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to move quickly up the Mississippi Valley on Saturday, before turning northeastward toward the Great Lakes late Saturday or early Sunday. Dissipation is anticipated before the end of the weekend. Severe weather, including heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes will be the primary hazard associated with post-tropical Olga as it races northward. Coastal flooding is also possible tonight along portions of the Louisiana coast. For more information specific to your area, please see products from your local weather service office at weather.gov. Key messages: 1. Olga is now a post-tropical cyclone. Detailed information about hazards related to wind, rainfall, coastal flooding, and tornadoes can be found in products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 27.8N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/1200Z 31.8N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 27/0000Z 38.0N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/1200Z 43.5N 83.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shuzilla Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 I just happened to notice that the center, as it moves into Tennessee, appears to have an eye on radar and the presentation of a northern "eye wall", though of course it is extra-tropical at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 Post tropical Olga is kickin. Can pick out a circulation in Tennessee and there have been 60-70 mph winds in Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Talk about wam bam thank ya mam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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