Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 18z NAM takes a hard jump into the Euro camp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Yep, 18z NAM(s) have snow up to west burbs by Wed evening. That came outta nowhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Could see there being a narrow band of 2-4/3-5 for the late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning round. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Looks like we got put under a WWA for tonight's snow. Not really surprised considering how early it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 18z GFS still holding on to the strong storm scenario while all the other models trended weaker. The 18z ICON only produces a couple inches in eastern Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 31 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Could see there being a narrow band of 2-4/3-5 for the late Tuesday night-Wednesday morning round. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Was thinking the same thing. Nice signal showing up for moderate to at times heavy precip. Could envision a period of snowfall rates around 1" per hour on the colder surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 3k NAM looks to be taking the warm lake water into consideration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 22 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: 3k NAM looks to be taking the warm lake water into consideration Very noticeable. There will be an impact for sure but don't know about the snow line being pushed 15-20 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Very noticeable. There will be an impact for sure but don't know about the snow line being pushed 15-20 miles inland. Lake shadow + Heat Island = IDK?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 The first flakes of the season just began to fall here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 28 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Lake shadow + Heat Island = IDK?? Both valid concerns. I just find it hard to believe it would go quite as far inland as the 3km NAM. Now certainly the best accums will be pretty far inland but I have a hard time believing the cutoff between snow/no snow will be that far from the lake in this setup. I guess we'll see. 00z HRRR coming in better... even tries to toss me a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 00z NAM 3k is just like the Euro and ICON, although slightly slower. Have to wait and see what the 00z GFS shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 59 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Both valid concerns. I just find it hard to believe it would go quite as far inland as the 3km NAM. Now certainly the best accums will be pretty far inland but I have a hard time believing the cutoff between snow/no snow will be that far from the lake in this setup. I guess we'll see. 00z HRRR coming in better... even tries to toss me a bone. Nice to see the 1/2 county NW of mby teasings picking up right where they left off last winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 KBUF going all in on a more wound-up wind-maker I see. Certainly been a theme this past 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 00z GFS not budging one bit. Still shows the strong system scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 00z GFS might even be a tad more amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Yeah that 00Z HRRR run was kinda nuts with a squeaker band that far south late tomorrow night early Wed. Got a little support from the other convective models. I get nervous seeing a couple inches of flakes fly even to my NW, this early. This pattern has been locked in for awhile. Like Stebo said hope it holds for another 6 weeks anyway, could get an early Dec. ball buster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 First snow of the new season this eve. Have a mix of mostly rain, with partially melted flakes raining down. Sounds kind of sleety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 Well if nothing else for areas that miss out on the better amounts -- roughly Chicago east -- there should be a period where it looks like winter with some wind blown snow on the back end. Magnitude of wind will of course depend on how quickly the low deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Well if nothing else for areas that miss out on the better amounts -- roughly Chicago east -- there should be a period where it looks like winter with some wind blown snow on the back end. Magnitude of wind will of course depend on how quickly the low deepens. And that's a pretty nice win given it's so early in the season. EDIT: Forgot to mention earlier, I'll be relocating further south here in about 6 weeks. About 4 blocks south on the south side of Erie more into the country lol. Offer on the new house was accepted yesterday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just now, cyclone77 said: And that's a pretty nice win given it so early in the season. I can count on about 2 fingers the number of times I can remember it snowing on halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: I can count on about 2 fingers the number of times I can remember it snowing on halloween. Yeah it's pretty cool how it can be like this, or have near 80 degree warmth. Halloween is one of the biggest crap shoots there are in regards to weather compared to most holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2019 Author Share Posted October 29, 2019 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: And that's a pretty nice win given it's so early in the season. EDIT: Forgot to mention earlier, I'll be relocating further south here in about 6 weeks. About 4 blocks south on the south side of Erie more into the country lol. Offer on the new house was accepted yesterday. 4 blocks huh? Hope precip type won't be more of an issue. I went to elementary school with a kid who moved across the street. But hey, gotta do what works I guess. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 While all other models continue to trend weaker and more progressive with the wave, the GFS doubles down, dropping over 15" in eastern Iowa. FV3 core continues to be disappointing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Getting some very robust snowfall here. A solid bright green band, with a few spots of yellow, is producing a moderate to heavy rate with large flakes. I'm sure I'm over an inch now. We have a real shot at 2". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Getting some very robust snowfall here. A solid bright green band, with a few spots of yellow, is producing a moderate to heavy rate with large flakes. I'm sure I'm over an inch now. We have a real shot at 2". Very nice. Visibilities AOB a mile extend back towards Grinnell and Pella, so you should have nice snow for a decent while longer. Have a 50/50 mix of rain/snow here now. Large solitary flakes raining down with the rain. Temp has dropped from 39 to 35 in the past half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 My total has jumped to 1.5" (assuming the car hood is an accurate measurement) just in the last 25 minutes. That makes the rate over an inch per hour. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 19 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah it's pretty cool how it can be like this, or have near 80 degree warmth. Halloween is one of the biggest crap shoots there are in regards to weather compared to most holidays. Screw the 80 degrees. I'm just flipping out we're actually having a fall season this year, lovin every minute of it. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Still snowing at 60hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 29, 2019 Share Posted October 29, 2019 Picked up 0.07" of rain. It's mostly snow now, with very fine flakes pouring down. Some minor slush showing up on elevated surfaces. Should snow pretty nicely between 1-2am, which could result in a quick inch on the grass/elevated surfaces. Temp is down to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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