Natester Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 00z HRRR 10:1 snow totals for tomorrow's snow looks nowhere near as impressive. Only a few areas reach 2 inches, with the exception of the Michigan pennesola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 31 minutes ago, Natester said: 00z HRRR 10:1 snow totals for tomorrow's snow looks nowhere near as impressive. Only a few areas reach 2 inches, with the exception of the Michigan pennesola. The precip total (rain and snow) across the region is very dry on this run... much less than any other model. It has only 0.05" in Cedar Rapids. The Euro has 0.40" and other models are 0.20 - 0.30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The precip total (rain and snow) across the region is very dry on this run... much less than any other model. It has only 0.05" in Cedar Rapids. The Euro has 0.40" and other models are around 0.30". Not sure how it's doing that far out this season, but last winter it wasn't too good beyond 18hrs in regards to precip amounts. Seemed to low-ball amounts beyond the 18hr range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 00z NAM 3k 10:1 snow accumulations has a more realistic scenario with widespread 1 to 2.5 inches of snow. EDIT: Hour 84 of the 00z NAM 12k is just like the 12z CMC. I highly doubt that will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The weaker/less phased version of the system ala what the 12z EC shows benefits the QCA. Would mean a mostly snow scenario with just a brief period of rain Thu. Looking forward to the first flakes of the season. Have a feeling you might reel this one in. And even if you don't end up in the main band, it's still very early lol I will be in LaSalle county on Halloween... drive might be a little interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Just what us weenies need is Oct snow threats now! Welcome to Winter, Weenies - Lets Go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 40 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Have a feeling you might reel this one in. And even if you don't end up in the main band, it's still very early lol I will be in LaSalle county on Halloween... drive might be a little interesting. Yeah some interesting trends the past day or two. This reminds me of the late Oct 1997 storm that dropped a few inches here, and quite a bit more on Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Tonight's GFS dumps about a foot on the area. Would be a hell of a mess with the trees still about 80% full of leaves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah some interesting trends the past day or two. This reminds me of the late Oct 1997 storm that dropped a few inches here, and quite a bit more on Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Tonight's GFS dumps about a foot on the area. Would be a hell of a mess with the trees still about 80% full of leaves. I was looking up stats on October snow for MLI. Since 1931, the combined October snowfall total at MLI is 13.3". 88 Octobers to achieve that total. Really puts the GFS in perspective. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Far nw IL to rfd definitely not out of game for light accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 On 10/26/2019 at 11:17 AM, Chicago Storm said: Given how the upper air pattern is trending, any snow from both systems will likely be limited to IA/WI/MI. gonna end up a 1-2 event IYBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 MLI hammer time on the 12z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 11 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah some interesting trends the past day or two. This reminds me of the late Oct 1997 storm that dropped a few inches here, and quite a bit more on Cedar Rapids/Iowa City. Tonight's GFS dumps about a foot on the area. Would be a hell of a mess with the trees still about 80% full of leaves. Yeah, since the snow in your area is most likely going to be of the wet type (early in the event). As for here, it'll be of the drier type, extremely rare for October. Multiple models has us below freezing for much of Thursday. The thing I was worried about concerning this upcoming winter storm is power outages, which doesn't seem likely since the winds won't be too strong and the temps will be below freezing. The vast majority of the trees around here still have leaves on them. Also, 12z ICON is faster with the system while the 00z Euro is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 MKX is saying 2-3" around here of snow for tonight. I wasn't really expecting this today not going to lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 6z Euro bumped SE again from 0z run. Nice early weenie band with initial advection/fronto snows Wednesday morning into western Chi metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 So the big question is how much to allow for melting given how early in the season it is. There isn't model consensus yet on amounts which makes it difficult to figure but obviously not actually going to see everything that is modeled be on the ground. Breaks in the precip will allow for melting. That being said, it won't be 60 or 70 degrees the day before and temps will be dropping below freezing so I think a large portion of what is modeled may actually accumulate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 Just now, Thundersnow12 said: 6z Euro bumped SE again from 0z run. Nice early weenie band with initial advection/fronto snows Wednesday morning into western Chi metro. There's the band I was mentioning. Some love for areas that are just a little too far south for later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 12z Canadian is still a mess. UKMET looks a bit strung out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 By the way, Weatherbell.com still allows the general public to view NDFD (National Digital Forecast Database) products, including snowfall and freezing rain. https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/model/ndfd-conus?d=conus&p=t2m_f 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: 12z Canadian is still a mess. UKMET looks a bit strung out too. Seems to be the new trend with guidance, as the 12z Euro is following...though not to as severe of a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 12z Euro goes to pound town across northern Illinois and Chicago metro with early intiail onset band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Yes it's still october, but I'm still gonna reiterate how much effort it has taken to get a phased, wound up system(snow or not) in the midwest lately. Seems weak, strung out, progressive waves are the preferred outcome in the majority of cases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 12z Euro goes to pound town across northern Illinois and Chicago metro with early intiail onset band That band is such a tease around here. Marginal thermal profiles in general + flow off a 50+ degree lake is no good. Wetbulbs may get down around a couple thousand feet though early on so maybe can't rule out some wet flakes mixing in during heavier bursts early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 Roughly Kirksville, MO to western Cook county is the heavier snow band on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 The top CIPS analog is 10/26/1997. 12/1/2006 is also on the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The top CIPS analog is 10/26/1997. 12/1/2006 is also on the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 Just now, cyclone77 said: One of my favorite events for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: I had you in mind when I typed that Probably want to stop the bleeding on the trends though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 56 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That band is such a tease around here. Marginal thermal profiles in general + flow off a 50+ degree lake is no good. Wetbulbs may get down around a couple thousand feet though early on so maybe can't rule out some wet flakes mixing in during heavier bursts early morning. Continue to parse the data. Bottom line, the lake is not your friend w/early events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Continue to parse the data. Bottom line, the lake is not your friend w/early events True that. The good thing is that the flow looks fairly light (maybe 5-10 mph on Wednesday morning) and I am located several miles inland... so if thermal profiles aloft can trend a little cooler then it might lead to a longer period of mix/snow... big if though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 28, 2019 Share Posted October 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: True that. The good thing is that the flow looks fairly light (maybe 5-10 mph on Wednesday morning) and I am located several miles inland... so if thermal profiles aloft can trend a little cooler then it might lead to a longer period of mix/snow... big if though. Best of luck bud. Euro track looks like perfection ORD to DTW smack-down later in winter. Patience to all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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