CoalCityWxMan Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Euro with a nice 4-6” swath through N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 I will eat my hat and upload the vid for all to see if it is still 37 downtown at 10 pm tomorrow night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: it's happening Need a wager here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 FYI, none of the GEFS hold on to the lake shadow like the OP does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 even RAP keeps lakefront rain through 15z with a temp near 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: That axis of snow last night and this morning from W IL into N IL ended up much more narrow than pretty much any model showed, even the NAM's, which usually do a fairly good job with banding. All guidance did a terrible job on amounts, and even QPF as well. Based on reports, it looks like the main axis was ~15mile wide with 1-3.5", and a DAB surrounding that. Couldn't have said it better myself. Definitely was modeled terribly. Our local met posted this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Mentioned this already but you can see some lake enhancement showing up on the simulated reflectivity products on the western shores of LM tomorrow, which makes sense given sufficient delta T. With that of course brings the concern about too much marine influence, but the flow is actually sheared a bit so that as surface winds start turning more N/NNW, the 925 mb flow is still more out of the NNE. There could be a window to get some enhancement without the full blast effects of the marine influence but overall it shouldn't add on a lot to totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 WWA for most of LOT, 4-6” west 2-4” east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Been snowing since 2 PM here. Had a brief burst of moderate snow. Temps are now below freezing based on several personal weather stations in Cedar Rapids. Personally I didn't expect temps to go below freezing this soon but that's what evaporative cooling does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Changeover time seems to be speeding up a bit. Looks like it could be mixing here by mid morning with all snow late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 A few flakes coming down at the moment, mixed with some drizzle. Looks like all things are go for a solid advisory criteria event. Euro bumped us up to close to 1/2" of precip. GFS and NAMs came back to Earth a bit, after showing 6-9" for several runs. Looking like a nice 4-5" type of event. Good chance we won't see anything like this again on Halloween. Gonna be pretty sweet watching game 7 of the World Series with snow ripping outside. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Lol Normally I love lake enhancement on this side of the lake in Indiana, but, as modeled, the wind off the "warm" lake keeps precip as rain here in South Bend. Oof. Oh well, it is October after all. I'll enjoy my rain/snow mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Looks like 3" or so is forecasted here. This feels like im talking the weather before Thanksgiving not Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Re: Chicago, if you look at the GFS surface maps, it has lower pressures extending farther west than other models. This keeps the winds onshore longer and then once winds turn offshore, it is holding on to an exaggerated warm bubble over the city. After winds are offshore, it is hard to figure out why the city would be staying several degrees warmer than even the immediate suburbs when not talking about a radiational cooling situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: There is no reason to hang on to that kind of warmth for that long after the winds have flipped offshore. Lake is pretty warm and the flow is weak. I would believe it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Looks about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Looks about right It's not doing so hot so far... The R/S line is steadily working east...located just east of an RFD to RPJ to GBG line. Already into the 12-6AM area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Looks about right Pretty sure you’re trolling Joe and/or blazin’ it tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Pretty sure you’re trolling Joe and/or blazin’ it tonight Why not both 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 11 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Pretty sure you’re trolling Joe and/or blazin’ it tonight I'm waiting for the 18Z EURO map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 DVN definitely feeling bullish for my area. I was hoping for maybe 2 or 3", however with the earlier onset and increased banding, probably gonna end closer to 3". However I think 5" is too high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 minute ago, Baum said: I'm waiting for the 18Z EURO map Widespread 2-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2019 Author Share Posted October 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Lake is pretty warm and the flow is weak. I would believe it. What? Sustained winds will be around 15-25 mph throughout the afternoon before slacking during evening. I wouldn't call that weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Grassy and elevated surfaces have dusted up with a few tenths so far. Flakes are very small and pouring straight down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Pretty much a dry snow here, been that way for the past couple hours. Last time I saw fat flakes was around 5 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 UPDATE... Issued at 811 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 No major changes to going forecast for the overnight hours, though some concerns persist. Showers have developed west of the Illinois River Valley this evening and will continue to spread east. Precip has already transitioned over to snow from Galesburg through Macomb and should see areas west of the Illinois River Valley transition over by around midnight. Trends will have to be monitored overnight with respect to the depth of the saturated layer. Main concern is that several models indicate a narrow mid level dry slot will punch across the Illinois River Valley overnight, resulting in loss of ice nuclei at times, particularly between 06-12Z tonight. This would transition precip back to liquid drizzle and cut down on snow amounts. As is typical with mixed precip scenarios, it`s the difference of only a degree or two which doesn`t lend much in the way of confidence to make large scale changes to the forecast at this time. Regardless of how precip pans out overnight, still appears the best snow production will occur from the predawn hours through the morning Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 ILX seems to be concerned of drier air mixing out ice nuclei causing a possible drizzle situation over snow. But I'm not really seeing this in models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Have transitioned to snow. Small/fine flakes. Nice to be ahead of schedule.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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