Hoosier Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Let's go. Looking like multiple parts with part 1 not being that many days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the trend of late had been for the second part to be far stronger correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 36 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but the trend of late had been for the second part to be far stronger correct? Potentially deeper, but less snow at our lat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Potentially deeper, but less snow at our lat Dunno about snow in Chicagoland but this is a cool event regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 28 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Dunno about snow in Chicagoland but this is a cool event regardless Would certainly rather be north of Chicago at this point. That being said, despite it being late October, I wouldn't assume we are automatically going to see northwest trends because climo or whatever. There is an unusual amount of cold air dumping in and the "zone" should sort of be established by the initial system. It is taking a hyperbomb to get these western solutions, and personally I think the Euro/ICON type outcomes represent roughly the western limit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Jinxed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 18Z GFS now has a weak system instead of no system at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Late October snow climo is bad, especially imby but it's prime bomb season, take any solution with rapid deepening in immediate region and call it a win. Patterns have a tendency to get sticky these days and this would be a good one to see again 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Late October snow climo is bad, especially imby but it's prime bomb season, take any solution with rapid deepening in immediate region and call it a win. Patterns have a tendency to get sticky these days and this would be a good one to see again This new you is too optimistic. Not sure how I feel about it. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: This new you is too optimistic. Not sure how I feel about it. I am shocked you didn't go DAB already. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 34 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Late October snow climo is bad, especially imby but it's prime bomb season, take any solution with rapid deepening in immediate region and call it a win. Patterns have a tendency to get sticky these days and this would be a good one to see again If I can put 5"-6" down in early May I'm a believer in anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 I am shocked you didn't go DAB already.I’m turning over a new leaf.Following in the footsteps of brother Alek.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 All this happy go lucky posting, what subforum is this 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 00z ICON no longer bombs, but instead has a MUCH weaker system. Also, first system is further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 00z GEFS members are more than half with a storm, certainly much stronger than the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z ICON still has the second storm, albeit MUCH MUCH weaker. 12z CMC has much of Iowa, northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northern Michigan buried in 6+ inches of snow (late week system). Going to be really bad for the trees and disastrous for the crops. Not much wind in that system, though. Also, CMC says siggy ice storm for west central Michigan. We'll see what the 12z Euro says, although I'm pretty sure the Euro will show what the CMC shows, unless the Euro sides with the ICON and GFS. One more thing, all the GEFS ensembles show a significant snowstorm for eastern Iowa early next week, while it has the second system to the southeast of Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 12z Euro - Snow precip Wave #1 Total after major Halloween storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro - Snow precip Wave #1 Total after major Halloween storm Late next week's storm is basically a repeat of 1991, except further east and no ice. Winds gusts not to bad, although enough to aggravate snow stressed trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 It seems to me -in my infinite wisdom- that there is a sort of new consensus being reached by the models. The CMC and GFS appear to have quite similar solutions, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 15 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: It seems to me -in my infinite wisdom- that there is a sort of new consensus being reached by the models. The CMC and GFS appear to have quite similar solutions, correct? First system or second system or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, Natester said: First system or second system or both? Second... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Just now, Malacka11 said: Second... Oh, I see. Well, the track is somewhat similar but the CMC is slower, having the snow shield track through on Friday November 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 Some serious bombogenesis on the 18z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Some serious bombogenesis on the 18z GFS. That wouldn't be a terrible track a couple months from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2019 Author Share Posted October 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: That wouldn't be a terrible track a couple months from now. I hate these types of situations where you know there will probably be a window of GFS runs that look good for your backyard on its way to joining the other models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 Some serious big dogs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2019 Share Posted October 25, 2019 After last year, it would hilarious if Missouri of all states cleans up on this storm. They probably never want to see snow after last winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 0Z GFS slightly weaker and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 GFS has trended towards the Euro with the first system, keeping and minor snow to IA/WI. Seems to be agreement among most guidance now with 2nd system as well, with snows for mainly IA/WI and pets of IL/MI potentially. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 26, 2019 Share Posted October 26, 2019 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: GFS has trended towards the Euro with the first system, keeping and minor snow to IA/WI. Seems to be agreement among most guidance now with 2nd system as well, with snows for mainly IA/WI and pets of IL/MI potentially. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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