UniversesBelowNormal Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 See Easternuswx ~2008-2009 for further elaboration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 On 10/20/2019 at 2:05 PM, UniversesBelowNormal said: See Easternuswx ~2008-2009 for further elaboration. You predicted negative NAO last year, didn't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You predicted negative NAO last year, didn't you? It was positive last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just now, UniversesBelowNormal said: It was positive last year So you nailed it. Maybe the year before it was that you were going very negative and it missed I remember I was a fan of your work back in Eastern...good luck this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 It's something like 9-3-2 since conception, meaning I constructed the index then it hit like 11/14 times or something some neutral's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 hours ago, UniversesBelowNormal said: It's something like 9-3-2 since conception, meaning I constructed the index then it hit like 11/14 times or something some neutral's. 9-3-2? What does 2 denote, a tie? Lol Yea, I remember it caught on with Jack O (RIP), too. Raindance reminds me of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 On 10/22/2019 at 4:58 PM, UniversesBelowNormal said: It's something like 9-3-2 since conception, meaning I constructed the index then it hit like 11/14 times or something some neutral's. I found my reference to your work...it was the outlook for not last winter, but the previous one. Perhaps one of the most skilled forecasters on a forum replete with talented meteorologists and hobbyists alike, in americanwx.com, "StormchaserChuck" devised a formula roughly a decade ago that predicts the mean aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north Atlantic. We strongly endorse this methodology as the most accurate predictor available for the mean state of the winter NAO. The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations that we so often reference. "In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was 7). Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact: 2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter .. Yes 2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Yes 2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Yes 2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... even 2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Strong Yes 2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Yes 2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Yes 2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Yes 2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 9-1-2 This index as a value forecasting tool is proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in my opinion. Since so many people have asked me about this in the last few years, I thought it a good idea to make a post. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box is warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. The index this year is strong -NAO. Top 10-15 negative index of all predictive years going back to 1948 (69)". Needless to say, we believe that the case for a predominately -NAO phase this winter is a strong one, and this means that it is more likely than not that the arctic oscillation will also be in its negative mode more often than not. But we can look far above the sea surface of the equatorial Pacific to find more definitive indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 DM NAO ended up being +.74 , so pretty big miss for your indicator that season, which was very negative. However it is worth noting that March was a very big NAO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2019 Share Posted October 24, 2019 Since you said that it suggested positive last year, I count 10 hits, 3 whiffs and 1 neutral. Pretty good, despite the terrible showing two years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted October 24, 2019 Author Share Posted October 24, 2019 Upon further review, box A comes in at -0.30, box B -0.80 so it's about -0.55-0.60 for the Winter. I bet this will happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2019 Author Share Posted November 13, 2019 The -NAO progged days 5-15 ups the chances, I think. I'm surprised no one bought up on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, UniversesBelowNormal said: The -NAO progged days 5-15 ups the chances, I think. I'm surprised no one bought up on it. Try the long range thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 30 minutes ago, UniversesBelowNormal said: I was wrong. Just a little 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 2 hours ago, UniversesBelowNormal said: I was wrong. But you were wrong with gusto. That's the important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 6 hours ago, UniversesBelowNormal said: I was wrong. It's not over yet. If you can get like 3 weeks of persistent -10SD nao you might at least break at neutral. I'm gonna say that probably isnt going to happen tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted February 14, 2020 Author Share Posted February 14, 2020 I wonder if I didn't predict it what it would be... maybe another +NAO Winter? (unbelievable like 34 straight months). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 On 2/14/2020 at 2:08 PM, UniversesBelowNormal said: I wonder if I didn't predict it what it would be... maybe another +NAO Winter? (unbelievable like 34 straight months). You think the new regime that might favor more - NAO gets underway next winter ? Or, is the lag effect longer in your opinion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted February 18, 2020 Author Share Posted February 18, 2020 I'm not sure we are anywhere near that regime. It seems even more +NAO now. We would have to go backwards, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UniversesBelowNormal Posted February 26, 2020 Author Share Posted February 26, 2020 Looks like about 4 days of negative all Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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