RogueWaves Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 34 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Call me crazy but I'm still thinking the weekend system has a shot to do something around here. GRR = "Meh" DTX = "stay tuned!" Wonder how many times we'll be here this upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 ICON-ic snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Retired DTX met Bill Deedlers Winter outlook for the Great Lakes https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2019/11/neutral-enso-takes-back-seat-to-other.html?m=1 One of his best wrt graphics and content. Some real seasons of yore for cold/snow in his analog list too. With 4 of 5 storm tracks favorable to The Lakes, calls for "snowverload" may not be an exaggeration. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 9 hours ago, OHweather said: The look of a -NAO, -PNA and active sub-tropical jet would be very good for a lot of this sub-forum starting around the end of November (though intially may favor those in the northern half of it). If the EPO drops after day 10 as the ensembles are trying to hint at that would eventually shift the baroclinic zone far enough south for the Ohio Valley to also get more in the game for early December. CFS reading you loud-n-clear there OHweather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 Haven't seen the >400 hr CFS in a while. Nice change of pace. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 As far as the system this weekend, much of the uncertainty lies with the northern stream piece of energy and the timing of it and how it interacts with the closed low ejecting eastward. Assuming there is indeed an organized band of snow that materializes, thermal profiles look a bit cruddy. Cold enough to snow but should be of the wetter variety, especially during the daylight hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 We're getting dangerously close to a viable solution... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Cutter heaven for sure right on time for Thanksgiving week...unfortunately if you took the GFS verbatim many are on the wrong side of those cuts...which is probably the norm for late November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 38 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: We're getting dangerously close to a viable solution... I'd like to place a bid for this model run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Malacka11 said: We're getting dangerously close to a viable solution... That seems pretty viable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Malacka11 said: We're getting dangerously close to a viable solution... Another miss to the SE so yeah I’d say that’s very viable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 First image is the 0z Euro members and the second image is the 6z members. The 0z op run didn't even have a system as the upper low north of Lake Superior didn't allow the potential wave to do much after crossing the Rockies. And I'm talking about the pre Thanksgiving system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 could be worse^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 12z GFS is a decent thread the needle hit here with the low amplitude wave amplifying some but marginal low level thermals/poor time of day cuts down on accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 couple of misses south on the GFS now, worst indian summer ever 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 What a bomb on the 12z EURO at 144... 984mb just W of CLE... 3 level closed contour h5 too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Sfc temps really marginal early on until the defo cranks NW IN into MI but yeah, sfc low really deepens fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Last 5 runs of the Euro have been pretty consistent on 4-6 inches from about 30 miles east of me all the way up through Toledo inside 72 hours, then another 3-4 with the second system. I'd lock it in except it's all alone with that forecast. Timing is going to be the secret (as it usually is around here until January). Get something coming through during the overnight our chances for snow increase 2 fold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 Handling of the features for early to midweek has changed on recent runs. There is more emphasis on a northern stream wave in the northern US/Canada which then allows for the subsequent energy to be somewhat suppressed, at least compared to previous runs which had it going through IA/WI. Here is Tuesday's Euro vs the Euro from today for comparison. It is an energetic pattern so it's hard to have much confidence in the details yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 3 hours ago, yoda said: What a bomb on the 12z EURO at 144... 984mb just W of CLE... 3 level closed contour h5 too purdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 The Euro is, well, nuts. There is a 100 mph 850 mb max (actually 105 mph at one point) as the system maxes out at 980 mb in eastern IN. The wind gust maps spit out 80-90 mph gusts on the back side as a result. Odds of happening are somewhere between impossible and yeah right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Take the Euro run and shift it west 50 miles or so and now we are talking. Like Hoosier said, odds of this happening are incredibly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The Euro is, well, nuts. There is a 100 mph 850 mb max (actually 105 mph at one point) as the system maxes out at 980 mb in eastern IN. The wind gust maps spit out 80-90 mph gusts on the back side as a result. Odds of happening are somewhere between impossible and yeah right. Lock it in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 17 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Take the Euro run and shift it west East 50 miles or so and now we are talking. Like Hoosier said, odds of this happening are incredibly low. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: Need a little more east-west orientation and we can both be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 I can live with all 3 options. APX reminds that the energy driving this is still 1,000 miles away. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: The Euro is, well, nuts. There is a 100 mph 850 mb max (actually 105 mph at one point) as the system maxes out at 980 mb in eastern IN. The wind gust maps spit out 80-90 mph gusts on the back side as a result. Odds of happening are somewhere between impossible and yeah right. Perhaps, but how often do you get to even see such wx model details in this corner of the world? Let alone by the Euro. GFS & NAM typically over blow scenarios left and right as we know. I smell a non-bust.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Tonight's UK and Euro are well north of previous runs Tuesday/Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 Where'd everybody go? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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