Jackstraw Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: That clipper keeps showing up. Nothing scientific, but I'm smelling over-performer just for the fluff factor if nothing else. My big sugar maples just dropped 5 inches of leaves the last 2 days if I slant stick it. If the NAM verifies in the short term and then a refresh midweek it'll look like a foot lol. Btw, is depth to measured off the dirt or whatever is above the dirt. If it's above I'll stop mowing the end of August so I can feel good about a 2 inch misery snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: My big sugar maples just dropped 5 inches of leaves the last 2 days if I slant stick it. If the NAM verifies in the short term and then a refresh midweek it'll look like a foot lol. Btw, is depth to measured off the dirt or whatever is above the dirt. If it's above I'll stop mowing the end of August so I can feel good about a 2 inch misery snow You're gonna get owned this winter.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: You're gonna get owned this winter.. What is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: You're gonna get owned this winter.. Thanks for the jinx. I'll buy some coconut oil and keep a couple pairs of shorts out for a Xmas cookout now lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, RobertSul said: What is that from? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkQTUP7ZEWU&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=3&t=0s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Thanks for the jinx. I'll buy some coconut oil and keep a couple pairs of shorts out for a Xmas cookout now lol. To wear while arm wrestling A-L-E-K for the primary storm track? Could both end up winners. '78 is Chicago's #2 all-time snowiest after all, barely beaten by '79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Getting to 10 before tday would be such a change of pace from all the recent slow starts here lakeside Scored 15.2" here last November for 3rd all-time. Battle Creek just half a county west hit 24+ for #1 (records to 1895). This could go down as 2nd snowy November here after a long stretch without much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 So we're going to pull back into something resembling a more normal Nov pattern, and it would be pretty bizarre not to since winter doesn't really lock in this early outside of the northern tier. Question is for how long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 looks zzzz until at least tday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Yes, out in fantasyland but GFS for several runs has been hinting at a big storm of some sort around Thanksgiving....worth watching. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 On 11/12/2019 at 8:24 PM, Indystorm said: Yes, out in fantasyland but GFS for several runs has been hinting at a big storm of some sort around Thanksgiving....worth watching. Euro, GFS and Canuk all have something coming through the Ohio valley around the 23rd-24th with the Euro down by the river, the Canuk just north of Chitown and the GFS running along I-70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 On 11/13/2019 at 4:27 PM, Angrysummons said: Downstream will be a mess on the models due to the displacement as the pv retreats into Asia. The PAC Jet will be whipping. Amazing how the pattern is acting like a strong el nino has developed this fall. That is exactly the way the pattern is acting. Soooo, what you're saying is this cool November will flip a warm DEC-JAN-FEB, like what typically happens with a strong El NiNO?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 On 11/10/2019 at 12:12 AM, Jackstraw said: Thanks for the jinx. I'll buy some coconut oil and keep a couple pairs of shorts out for a Xmas cookout now lol. On 11/9/2019 at 11:51 PM, RogueWaves said: You're gonna get owned this winter.. so I had to check out the source, I couldn't help myself....after all we have a blizzard warning about once in 10 years around here....so several in one winter would be quite the feat. lol His reasoning for the Big Blizzard area is based on his expection for frequent deepening low pressure areas off the new england coast due to unusually warm water in the northeast....(yes because we all know that's the classic textbook setup for big blizzards in Ohio and IN). I hope this guy isn't actually a meterologist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: so I had to check out the source, I couldn't help myself....after all we have a blizzard warning about once in 10 years around here....so several in one winter would be quite the feat. lol His reasoning for the Big Blizzard area is based on his expection for frequent deepening low pressure areas off the new england coast due to unusually warm water in the northeast....(yes because we all know that's the classic textbook setup for big blizzards in Ohio and IN). I hope this guy isn't actually a meterologist. I think his reasoning is more along the lines of the clash zone between warm waters east and arctic plunges west will make for stronger storms in between. Not unlike what just transpired. Also, he is only one of several calling for such. This fits well with what we've already seen wrt systems getting amped in and near the GL's. It's ofc been focused more northward as it's early yet. In the heart of winter months, it may well be that some strong systems end up tracking favorably for the OHV/Lwr Lakes. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. His earlier pre-lim forecast was calling for the blizzards more for the EC/New England if that makes anyone feel better? His recent final call, he adjusted that westward a bit as seen. Nobody has a crystal ball in LR seasonal forecasting, but the attempts to score with it have been improving little by little. Personally, early cold-n-snow around SMI will mean one of two things. Half the time it turns turd and flips warm/boring following (see last year, most strong Nino's, etc.), the other half continue the theme and end up being good winters, some even great winters. Nobody really knows until it's a wrap. Notice, he didn't just say run of the mill blizzards. He said BIG Blizzards! haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 2 hours ago, buckeye said: so I had to check out the source, I couldn't help myself....after all we have a blizzard warning about once in 10 years around here....so several in one winter would be quite the feat. lol His reasoning for the Big Blizzard area is based on his expection for frequent deepening low pressure areas off the new england coast due to unusually warm water in the northeast....(yes because we all know that's the classic textbook setup for big blizzards in Ohio and IN). I hope this guy isn't actually a meterologist. I'll pass on the crushing cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 1 hour ago, WestMichigan said: I'll pass on the crushing cold. Yeah, this just comes and sits on us. Doesn't seem too eager to warm up out there as my highs today were in the low 40's not long ago. Forecast dropped even since morning now expecting just 33F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2019 Share Posted November 15, 2019 9 hours ago, buckeye said: so I had to check out the source, I couldn't help myself....after all we have a blizzard warning about once in 10 years around here....so several in one winter would be quite the feat. lol His reasoning for the Big Blizzard area is based on his expection for frequent deepening low pressure areas off the new england coast due to unusually warm water in the northeast....(yes because we all know that's the classic textbook setup for big blizzards in Ohio and IN). I hope this guy isn't actually a meterologist. Maybe it was a typo, and he meant to type big lizzards instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 On 11/11/2019 at 1:36 PM, A-L-E-K said: looks zzzz until at least tday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Early snows and cold are good for stat padding, might be a while before true winter sets in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 8 hours ago, DAFF said: Early snows and cold are good for stat padding, might be a while before true winter sets in.... Early and late snows may often be the "stat padding" type, but this past week I would hardly consider stat padding. It was an absolute deep Winter week, with a historic November snowstorm at Detroit, and likely Windsor (if they would actually measure). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 As a fan of front loaded winter, I hope December is a good wintry month. A little concerned that it may have some problems. I would gladly sacrifice the first half of the month though if it meant consistent cold/snow for the second half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 Well, the long anticipated Thanksgiving-ish storm is coming into sight. Here is what the 12z Euro has at the end of the run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 /\ Now, just add cold and high-lat blocking that models haven't been reading well worth a crap from d10 range, and voila! We're in the game. Gonna double-down on what happened with Vet's Day storm. Heck. that wasn't seriously picked-up by models at this range. Don't think they even flashed an organized surface reflection, yet look where it trended. You'll have a thread soon. #goodtimes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Hmm.. Euro picking up on the colder air and now just starting to hint at a swath of snow S Plains to Lwr Lakes next weekend. Appetizer to T-Day smorgasboard event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 Yeah, that system next weekend could do a little something. We'll see. Does seem like the Thanksgiving storm is poised to be the bigger ticket item one way or another (rain/snow/wind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Lock it in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Lock it in Pineiro says wide left 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Lock it in Get that track with a colder air mass = game on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: Pineiro says wide left i will be riding the GFS based on its superior performance to date 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Looks like a mild and wet pattern could set up into at least early December. Guidance has been trending towards a -PNA, along with a neutral to perhaps +NAO/AO. Might be a delayed, but not denied kind of situation for indian summer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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