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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

That clipper keeps showing up. Nothing scientific, but I'm smelling over-performer just for the fluff factor if nothing else.

My big sugar maples just dropped 5 inches of leaves the last 2 days if I slant stick it.  If the NAM verifies in the short term and then a refresh midweek it'll look like a foot lol. Btw, is depth to measured off the dirt or whatever is above the dirt.  If it's above I'll stop mowing the end of August so I can feel good about a 2 inch misery snow :guitar:

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1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

My big sugar maples just dropped 5 inches of leaves the last 2 days if I slant stick it.  If the NAM verifies in the short term and then a refresh midweek it'll look like a foot lol. Btw, is depth to measured off the dirt or whatever is above the dirt.  If it's above I'll stop mowing the end of August so I can feel good about a 2 inch misery snow :guitar:

You're gonna get owned this winter..

 

20191107 WxDecoded Winter Outlook.PNG

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4 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Thanks for the jinx. I'll buy some coconut oil and keep a couple pairs of shorts out for a Xmas cookout now lol.

:grinch: To wear while arm wrestling A-L-E-K for the primary storm track? Could both end up winners. '78 is Chicago's #2 all-time snowiest after all, barely beaten by '79

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10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Getting to 10 before tday would be such a change of pace from all the recent slow starts here lakeside 

Scored 15.2" here last November for 3rd all-time. Battle Creek just half a county west hit 24+ for #1 (records to 1895). This could go down as 2nd snowy November here after a long stretch without much of anything. 

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On 11/12/2019 at 8:24 PM, Indystorm said:

Yes, out in fantasyland but GFS for several runs has been hinting at a big storm of some sort around Thanksgiving....worth watching.

Euro, GFS and Canuk all have something coming through the Ohio valley around the 23rd-24th with the Euro down by the river, the Canuk just north of Chitown and the GFS running along I-70.

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On 11/13/2019 at 4:27 PM, Angrysummons said:

Downstream will be a mess on the models due to the displacement as the pv retreats into Asia. The PAC Jet will be whipping. Amazing how the pattern is acting like a strong el nino has developed this fall. That is exactly the way the pattern is acting.

Soooo, what you're saying is this cool November will flip a warm DEC-JAN-FEB, like what typically happens with a strong El NiNO??

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On 11/10/2019 at 12:12 AM, Jackstraw said:

Thanks for the jinx. I'll buy some coconut oil and keep a couple pairs of shorts out for a Xmas cookout now lol.

 

On 11/9/2019 at 11:51 PM, RogueWaves said:

You're gonna get owned this winter..

 

20191107 WxDecoded Winter Outlook.PNG

so I had to check out the source, I couldn't help myself....after all we have a blizzard warning about once in 10 years around here....so several in one winter would be quite the feat.  lol

His reasoning for the Big Blizzard area is based on his expection for frequent deepening low pressure areas  off the new england coast due to unusually warm water in the northeast....(yes because we all know that's the classic textbook setup for big blizzards in Ohio and IN).    I hope this guy isn't actually a meterologist.    

 

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2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

 

so I had to check out the source, I couldn't help myself....after all we have a blizzard warning about once in 10 years around here....so several in one winter would be quite the feat.  lol

His reasoning for the Big Blizzard area is based on his expection for frequent deepening low pressure areas  off the new england coast due to unusually warm water in the northeast....(yes because we all know that's the classic textbook setup for big blizzards in Ohio and IN).    I hope this guy isn't actually a meterologist.    

 

I think his reasoning is more along the lines of the clash zone between warm waters east and arctic plunges west will make for stronger storms in between. Not unlike what just transpired. Also, he is only one of several calling for such. This fits well with what we've already seen wrt systems getting amped in and near the GL's. It's ofc been focused more northward as it's early yet. In the heart of winter months, it may well be that some strong systems end up tracking favorably for the OHV/Lwr Lakes. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. His earlier pre-lim forecast was calling for the blizzards more for the EC/New England if that makes anyone feel better? His recent final call, he adjusted that westward a bit as seen. Nobody has a crystal ball in LR seasonal forecasting, but the attempts to score with it have been improving little by little. Personally, early cold-n-snow around SMI will mean one of two things. Half the time it turns turd and flips warm/boring following (see last year, most strong Nino's, etc.), the other half continue the theme and end up being good winters, some even great winters. Nobody really knows until it's a wrap. Notice, he didn't just say run of the mill blizzards. He said BIG Blizzards!  haha :weenie:

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

 

so I had to check out the source, I couldn't help myself....after all we have a blizzard warning about once in 10 years around here....so several in one winter would be quite the feat.  lol

His reasoning for the Big Blizzard area is based on his expection for frequent deepening low pressure areas  off the new england coast due to unusually warm water in the northeast....(yes because we all know that's the classic textbook setup for big blizzards in Ohio and IN).    I hope this guy isn't actually a meterologist.    

 

I'll pass on the crushing cold.

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9 hours ago, buckeye said:

 

so I had to check out the source, I couldn't help myself....after all we have a blizzard warning about once in 10 years around here....so several in one winter would be quite the feat.  lol

His reasoning for the Big Blizzard area is based on his expection for frequent deepening low pressure areas  off the new england coast due to unusually warm water in the northeast....(yes because we all know that's the classic textbook setup for big blizzards in Ohio and IN).    I hope this guy isn't actually a meterologist.    

 

Maybe it was a typo, and he meant to type big lizzards instead.

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8 hours ago, DAFF said:

Early snows and cold are good for stat padding, might be a while before true winter sets in....

Early and late snows may often be the "stat padding" type, but this past week I would hardly consider stat padding. It was an absolute deep Winter week, with a historic November snowstorm at Detroit, and likely Windsor (if they would actually measure).

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/\  Now, just add cold and high-lat blocking that models haven't been reading well worth a crap from d10 range, and voila! We're in the game. Gonna double-down on what happened with Vet's Day storm. Heck. that wasn't seriously picked-up by models at this range. Don't think they even flashed an organized surface reflection, yet look where it trended. You'll have a thread soon. #goodtimes

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