Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro is also showing this weekend system.  If this verifies, folks from Iowa to Michigan would be stuck in the 30s and 40s with rain/mix and wind.  

[michsnowfreak]

On ‎4‎/‎18‎/‎2020 at 2:48 PM, Snowstorms said:

It was an exceptionally mild winter but unlike previous mild winters, i.e. 2011-12, we fared leagues better. February seems to be our best month of late, so it's no surprise February ended up above average in DTW. I think our 12 year running average is 15" at YYZ, way above our 1981-2010 average of 9.5" and 1971-2000 average of 8.8". Snowcover was almost absent this winter. We'd get a couple inches and within a few days it'd be gone. I think the reason DTW saw 41 days with snowcover this year was because we had an active storm track all winter long. There was hardly any arctic air this winter. Hence why I refuse to give this winter anything higher than a B+. Hard to forget that 3" rain storm back in Jan lol. 

Nonetheless, nice to see both Chicago and Detroit finishing at or slightly above average. 

The most consecutive days with 1"+ snowcover was 9, set twice (Nov 11-19 & Jan 18-26). If you count days with T snowdepth, there were a total of 73 days with some snow on the ground (41 days 1"+, 32 days T). It could certainly be much better but it also could be worse.

The best period of snowcover was mid-Jan to mid-Feb when only a few days had 0 depth

2020-01-18	5
2020-01-19	4
2020-01-20	4
2020-01-21	4
2020-01-22	4
2020-01-23	4
2020-01-24	3
2020-01-25	2
2020-01-26	1
2020-01-27	T
2020-01-28	T
2020-01-29	T
2020-01-30	T
2020-01-31	T
2020-02-01	T
2020-02-02	1
2020-02-03	0
2020-02-04	0
2020-02-05	0
2020-02-06	2
2020-02-07	3
2020-02-08	3
2020-02-09	2
2020-02-10	3
2020-02-11	2
2020-02-12	T
2020-02-13	1
2020-02-14	2
2020-02-15	2
2020-02-16	1

[hawkeye_wx]

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

That system mixes with/changes to snow in some areas on that run.

[Baum]

oh no.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, Baum said:

oh no.

[IWXwx]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Mother Nature's way of keeping us staying at home.

[Stebo]

Next winter I want to start January 1st and end January 31st.

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Next winter I want to start October 1st and end May 15th.

fyp

[A-L-E-K]

Lol piss

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

fyp

Ban cyclone77

[hawkeye_wx]

Models have backed off of any cold, here at the west edge of the subforum, into early May.  A few days ago they had a strong, wet system holding us in the 30s and 40s Saturday, but now that system will be more progressive and we should reach the 60s.  The latest Euro has 60s and 70s every day except one through day ten.

[madwx]

25 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models have backed off of any cold, here at the west edge of the subforum, into early May.  A few days ago they had a strong, wet system holding us in the 30s and 40s Saturday, but now that system will be more progressive and we should reach the 60s.  The latest Euro has 60s and 70s every day except one through day ten.

Yeah definite trend upwards with temps, also no lows forecast below 36 in the point so the last freeze may have already happened here.

 

Also dewpoints don't look to drop below 20 any more which my skin will definitely appreciate

[A-L-E-K]

On 4/9/2020 at 1:42 PM, A-L-E-K said:

GFS just incredibly wet, seems like that's the only thing we can count on anymore

wet

 

[Hoosier]

Almost half of the 2019-20 snow at ORD fell OUTSIDE of the DJF meteorological winter -- 16.2" out of 34.8".  Didn't go through the years to see just how often something like that occurs but I guarantee it's very unusual.

[iluvsnow]

And....the second week of May could be a continuation of the pattern we couldn't get in Met winter.....sucks!

[beavis1729]

Just saw in the SNE forum that Boston only hit 62 for a high temp in all of April, which is the lowest April max monthly temp on record. And, the highest temp in Boston for JFMA 2020 occurred in January. That’s crazy. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Just saw in the SNE forum that Boston only hit 62 for a high temp in all of April, which is the lowest April max monthly temp on record. And, the highest temp in Boston for JFMA 2020 occurred in January. That’s crazy. 

boston hit 74 in Jan. That is crazy. You have to go back to Jan 2019 when they had a month with a lower max than 62

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Almost half of the 2019-20 snow at ORD fell OUTSIDE of the DJF meteorological winter -- 16.2" out of 34.8".  Didn't go through the years to see just how often something like that occurs but I guarantee it's very unusual.

Not as extreme at Detroit, but the monthly breakdown sure looks odd though: Nov had way more snow than Dec, and Apr had way more than Mar.

Oct: T

Nov: 9.5"

Dec: 2.7"

Jan: 9.7"

Feb: 14.7"

Mar: 1.7"

Apr: 4.9"

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

And....the second week of May could be a continuation of the pattern we couldn't get in Met winter.....sucks!

If its going to be that cold, might as well root for the rare May snowflakes. Would make the 8th consecutive month with snow.

[Snowstorms]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

If its going to be that cold, might as well root for the rare May snowflakes. Would make the 8th consecutive month with snow.

Uhhhh... no! 

The next time I want to see snow is Nov. I'm ready for bbq season (at home ofc). 

[RobertSul]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

If its going to be that cold, might as well root for the rare May snowflakes. Would make the 8th consecutive month with snow.

At this point why not make a weird year weirder. 

[beavis1729]

Here is the AWSSI index for Winter 2019-20, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC).  As expected, the past winter in Chicago was categorized as "mild", which is the weakest of the 5 categories (mild, moderate, average, severe, extreme).

Current winter map here, along with an explanation of the AWSSI at the bottom of the page:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Details/graphs for specific cities here:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/AWSSI/chart.html

 

[nwohweather]

20 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Here is the AWSSI index for Winter 2019-20, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC).  As expected, the past winter in Chicago was categorized as "mild", which is the weakest of the 5 categories (mild, moderate, average, severe, extreme).

Current winter map here, along with an explanation of the AWSSI at the bottom of the page:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Details/graphs for specific cities here:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/AWSSI/chart.html

 

Ah yes the weather world is the only place Moderate can be described as a below average winter and a massive severe weather event

[Hoosier]

23 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Here is the AWSSI index for Winter 2019-20, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC).  As expected, the past winter in Chicago was categorized as "mild", which is the weakest of the 5 categories (mild, moderate, average, severe, extreme).

Current winter map here, along with an explanation of the AWSSI at the bottom of the page:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Details/graphs for specific cities here:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/AWSSI/chart.html

 

Here's how 2013-14 compares to 2019-20 for Chicago.  A bit of a difference.

[michsnowfreak]

22 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Here is the AWSSI index for Winter 2019-20, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC).  As expected, the past winter in Chicago was categorized as "mild", which is the weakest of the 5 categories (mild, moderate, average, severe, extreme).

Current winter map here, along with an explanation of the AWSSI at the bottom of the page:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Details/graphs for specific cities here:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/AWSSI/chart.html

 

 Interesting graphs and charts. I will have fun playing around with them. I notice when you use historical years there is also a record extreme and record mild.  What's interesting about the index is that it takes everything into account. So for anyone who says this seasons  snowfall numbers don't tell the truth about how Winter really was lol, use an index like this.  Just glancing at some historical years, it works both ways. For instance a cold Winter that may have had sucky snow fall could still fall in the average or even severe category. There's no way around it, this Winter saw a surprisingly decent amount of snow for many north of I 80 but it was a mild Winter over all

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Here is the AWSSI index for Winter 2019-20, produced by the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC).  As expected, the past winter in Chicago was categorized as "mild", which is the weakest of the 5 categories (mild, moderate, average, severe, extreme).

Current winter map here, along with an explanation of the AWSSI at the bottom of the page:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

Details/graphs for specific cities here:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu/AWSSI/chart.html

 

Well this sure is fun to play around with. Looks like an "average" winter for Minneapolis. 51.5" of snow fell which is 2.9" below normal so pretty close there. We actually had a snowcover streak of 97 days this winter which is surprising given how mild it was, that definitely pushed us out of the "moderate" category. 

[michsnowfreak]

50 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Well this sure is fun to play around with. Looks like an "average" winter for Minneapolis. 51.5" of snow fell which is 2.9" below normal so pretty close there. We actually had a snowcover streak of 97 days this winter which is surprising given how mild it was, that definitely pushed us out of the "moderate" category. 

Looks like their index on the severity of a winter is related to the intensity and persistence of cold weather, the amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground.  This is probably a cumulative measure of days, inches, occurrences, etc. For instance, while Minneapolis was 3" below average for snow, their total snow cover days were 13 days above average. I did not look up their average temperature. Detroit actually finished 0.5" above average for total snowfall, however days with snow on the ground was 8 below average.  Outside of the cold November and April, DJFM were mild.  You can also see the curve for the season. For instance, Detroit is at mild, but we're very close to the moderate color. In November we were "extreme" to start the season.. The upcoming May cold snap may even do the trick to put us into the moderate category. This is an awesome tool that I think I will have fun playing with lol, thanks beavis!

[michsnowfreak]

Those links and graphs were awesome. The ONLY Thing I would change...is have it go back farther than 1950 lol. How many times have I heard something like, these snows are adding up too much and making the winter look better than it was. Well, if youre strictly about snow, that's one thing. But this index with all its factors of cold, snowcover, snow, etc really is probably the BEST gauge if severity of a winter. I definitely recommend any climo fan to look it up for your location.

 

Im not sure exactly how much each thing is weighed, but temps certainly play a huge factor as some low snow years fall into the "severe" or "extreme" category and some high snow years in "moderate" or "mild". The cold temperature regime that dominated from approximately the mid-1960s to mid-1980s (with a few huge exceptions of course) really shows its strength in the severity of winters of the time that were otherwise not special snow wise.

 

The complete list for Detroit, followed by notes/oddities when looking at the individual ups and downs of each season

Record Extreme

Extreme

Severe

Average

Moderate

Mild

Record Mild

 

1950-51: Average

1951-52: Average

1952-53: Mild

1953-54: Moderate

1954-55: Mild

1955-56: Average

1956-57: Average

1957-58: Mild

1958-59: Severe

1959-60: Severe

1960-61: Moderate

1961-62: Average

1962-63: Extreme

1963-64: Moderate

1964-65: Severe

1965-66: Mild

1966-67: Severe

1967-68: Severe

1968-69: Moderate

1969-70: Extreme

1970-71: Average

1971-72: Moderate

1972-73: Mild

1973-74: Severe

1974-75: Severe

1975-76: Extreme

1976-77: Extreme

1977-78: Extreme

1978-79: Extreme

1979-80: Average

1980-81: Severe

1981-82: Extreme

1982-83: Mild

1983-84: Extreme

1984-85: Severe

1985-86: Extreme

1986-87: Moderate

1987-88: Average

1988-89: Mild

1989-90: Average

1990-91: Mild

1991-92: Moderate

1992-93: Average

1993-94: Severe

1994-95: Moderate

1995-96: Average

1996-97: Average

1997-98: Mild

1998-99: Average

1999-00: Moderate

2000-01: Severe

2001-02: Mild

2002-03: Extreme

2003-04: Moderate

2004-05: Severe

2005-06: Mild

2006-07: Moderate

2007-08: Severe

2008-09: Extreme

2009-10: Moderate

2010-11: Extreme

2011-12: Record Mild

2012-13: Moderate

2013-14: Record Extreme

2014-15: Extreme

2015-16: Mild

2016-17: Mild

2017-18: Severe

2018-19: Moderate

2019-20: Mild

 

NOTES ON INDIVIDUAL SEASONS:

1951-52: Extreme thru Jan, fell to avg w/ mild second half; “Average” severeity despite 58.6” snow

1952-53: Mild whole way thru, almost record mild in the end

1953-54: Mild all the way thru until late March snow eeked into Moderate category

1958-59: Briefly extreme in late Jan; finishes “severe” despite only 37.2” snow

1959-60: Mild all the way thru Mar 1, record cold Mar leaps it to just touch “severe” category in the end

1960-61: Avg til Feb, ends in moderate but close to mild; “moderate” severeity despite only 18.0” snow

1962-63: Extreme most of the way (some severe), finishes “extreme” due to cold, only 29.7” snow

1964-65: Avg until just eeking into “severe” in late Mar; 49.2” snow & largest snowstorm of 60s

1967-68: Finishes on “severe” side of avg/severe border despite only 30.6” snow (cold Nov-Jan-Feb)

1968-69: finishes in “moderate” rather than mild despite paltry 17.1” snow as temps were cold

1969-70: Extreme most of the way thru, finishes “extreme” due to cold as only 45.1” snow falls

1972-73: Finishes on the “mild” side of the mild/moderate border despite 45.0” snow

1974-75: Extreme in Dec due to record snow, scaled down to low-end “severe” at the end

1975-76: just barely skirts the “extreme” side of the severe/extreme border all season

1978-79: 4^th consecutive season to finish “extreme” (cold has played a big factor much of the time)

1979-80: Finishes “average” side of the avg/moderate border despite only 26.9” snow, paltry snowcover

1980-81: Extreme thru Jan finishes “severe” despite only 38.4” snow & barely any after mid-Feb

1982-83: skirts the record mild line all season until spring snow just puts it into regular “mild”

1984-85: Finishes on the “severe” side of the severe/extreme border

1985-86: Finishes on the “extreme” side of the severe/extreme border (last 2 seasons VERY close)

1986-87: Barely finishes “moderate” side of the moderate/mild border despite 49.7” snow (mild temps)

1989-90: Extreme thru mid-Jan but finishes only “average” due to very mild second half

1992-93: spent much of season mild, only finishes “average” despite 52.2” snow

1995-96: cold allows it to finish “average” but close to the severe line despite only 27.6” of snow

1998-99: Jan starts record mild, finished on extreme/severe border; ends “average” despite 49.5” snow

2000-01: record extreme thru much of Jan but paltry second half only allows it to finish “severe”

2005-06: In the extreme category into Jan, but finishes “mild”

2006-07: record mild thru Jan then late season cold spikes it to finish in the “moderate” category

2007-08: finishes only on the “severe” side of the severe/avg border despite 71.7” snow (mild temps)

2013-14: extreme moved to “record extreme” in mid-Jan and stayed there the rest of the way, 94.9" snow

2014-15: Feb started on the avg/severe border then jumped into “extreme” to finish (record cold)

2016-17: extreme Dec, season ended up “mild” but close to moderate border (despite record warm feb)

2017-18: rides the extreme/severe border most of the way, finishes just on the “severe” side

2019-20: record extreme after Nov eases into “mild” category by Feb where it stays, despite 43.2” snow

[michsnowfreak]

Here is for Chicago. Its interesting that despite the close distance, quite a few winters differ in their severity index

 

CHICAGO

1950-51: Extreme

1951-52: Severe

1952-53: Mild

1953-54: Mild

1954-55: Mild

1955-56: Mild

1956-57: Moderate

1957-58: Moderate

1958-59: Severe

1959-60: Severe

1960-61: Moderate

1961-62: Extreme

1962-63: Extreme

1963-64: Average

1964-65: Severe

1965-66: Moderate

1966-67: Severe

1967-68: Moderate

1968-69: Moderate

1969-70: Severe

1970-71: Average

1971-72: Average

1972-73: Moderate

1973-74: Average

1974-75: Moderate

1975-76: Average

1976-77: Extreme

1977-78: Extreme

1978-79: Record Extreme

1979-80: Average

1980-81: Average

1981-82: Extreme

1982-83: Mild

1983-84: Extreme

1984-85: Extreme

1985-86: Severe

1986-87: Mild

1987-88: Severe

1988-89: Average

1989-90: Average

1990-91: Moderate

1991-92: Mild

1992-93: Average

1993-94: Severe

1994-95: Mild

1995-96: M

1996-97: M

1997-98: M

1998-99: M

1999-00: Moderate

2000-01: Extreme

2001-02: Mild

2002-03: Average

2003-04: Average

2004-05: Moderate

2005-06: Mild

2006-07: Average

2007-08: Severe

2008-09: Extreme

2009-10: Severe

2010-11: Severe

2011-12: Record Mild

2012-13: Moderate

2013-14: Extreme

2014-15: Extreme

2015-16: Mild

2016-17: Mild

2017-18: Average

2018-19: Severe

2019-20: Mild