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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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Whatever frozen can be scored with this current 'event'...and whoever scores better enjoy it and take lots of pics.    

raging +AO, +NAO, -PNA, the MJO cruising into the fabeled hell regions of 5 and 6,  and to get one last kick in the sack (if that isn't enough), the epo that was recently showing a trend towards negative has flipped to going back positive.

Winter is esentially over for most...not that it ever began for some of us.  I don't care what fantasy snows the models show, if this crap holds /\ , it's game over.   Of course there's always the chance for those nasty slop snows in early spring for those who like that kinda thing.

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The current "disruption" (if you can even call it that) to the strat PV was the last real hope to salvage February outside of the northern tier, and instead the PV comes back stronger than ever in the mid-range.  It's been a winter I don't care to repeat anytime soon...nothing has shaken the pattern that started developing way back in December, and there have been several mechanisms to try to do so at various times.

328186276_GFSPV.png.2c7d10aefcdf53bf85096c90a4f3453f.png

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

See ya next season...

image.png.e4c86d00a098a198b685056791826f0f.png

And yet, my prediction is that February will come out at/above average for snow at ORD.  It's a problem from a sustained deep winter point of view but it looks cold/active enough to not be a total wipeout.  

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8 hours ago, OHweather said:

The current "disruption" (if you can even call it that) to the strat PV was the last real hope to salvage February outside of the northern tier, and instead the PV comes back stronger than ever in the mid-range.  It's been a winter I don't care to repeat anytime soon...nothing has shaken the pattern that started developing way back in December, and there have been several mechanisms to try to do so at various times.

328186276_GFSPV.png.2c7d10aefcdf53bf85096c90a4f3453f.png

Do solar mins lead to less PV disruptions?

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Just now, madwx said:

No in fact people have tried to argue the opposite, that solar minimums lead to more high latitude blocking and therefore PV disruptions.  

I've had two lake effect events this year, the lowest in my lifetime here in WNY. Just no cold air aside from Nov/Early Dec. Still not doing terrible due to synoptic, but definitely an odd year.

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Euro from 12z agreed. Waiting on 00z run. The GFS as usual is forecasting for another planet.

Both CMC and ICON had a partial phase. Nice pool of cold air near Hudson Bay with a weak SE ridge. Set-up is definitely there for something big but we need more consistency. 

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21 hours ago, Hoosier said:
And yet, my prediction is that February will come out at/above average for snow at ORD.  It's a problem from a sustained deep winter point of view but it looks cold/active enough to not be a total wipeout.  


Around average could be fairly easy to attain, given we’ve already had a few light events and will probably rack up a few more...and average is

Like sustained winter potential being DOA, cold is probably forgone too...outside of one or two very brief shots possible in the next 10 days or so, due the the brief -EPO push. Other than that, it’ll likely stay around or above normal temp wise.


.

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20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Around average could be fairly easy to attain, given we’ve already had a few light events and will probably rack up a few more...and average is
Like sustained winter potential being DOA, cold is probably forgone too...outside of one or two very brief shots possible in the next 10 days or so, due the the brief -EPO push. Other than that, it’ll likely stay around or above normal temp wise.


.

Would seem with the EPS flipping to a +EPO the GFS showing warm cutters ala December would be about right. Maybe you cash in on this midweek system before that happens

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