Moosey2323 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Canadian has a similar track but weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 0z GGEM. Most of that in IL is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 zzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 Usual caveat about the GEFS not being upgraded but virtually all of them have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 0z Euro has some ice but not to the extent of GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 These positive tilted/southern stream dominant systems always underperform with cold sector precip. Cold sector precip is narrow/fleeting where it occurs. Without a northern stream component to phase with this will be a non-event except for maybe a 25 mile wide area that gets a quick 2-3" of slop. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: These positive tilted/southern stream dominant systems always underperform with cold sector precip. Cold sector precip is narrow/fleeting where it occurs. Without a northern stream component to phase with this will be a non-event except for maybe a 25 mile wide area that gets a quick 2-3" of slop. Definitely run the risk of a fairly narrow area of snow with this type of evolution, but it has been hard to get a good phase to benefit the heart of the sub or to even get much action in general, so it is nice to see something. The ice potential looks like it could be intriguing but way too early to really dig into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: These positive tilted/southern stream dominant systems always underperform with cold sector precip. Cold sector precip is narrow/fleeting where it occurs. Without a northern stream component to phase with this will be a non-event except for maybe a 25 mile wide area that gets a quick 2-3" of slop. Phasing is not required to get lots of heavy precip. Wind, maybe, but it could still be a hellacious storm if enough cold air is available.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The tight baroclinic zone over the region indicates potential for strong low and mid level f-gen and associated banding. Don't need a wrapped up system to get good precip amounts in cold sector with that as the mid December event along I-70 corridor showed, along with some of the events in recent winters (Feb 8-9 2018 comes to mind up here). Also, there's good agreement in strong upper jet divergence for large scale ascent. There's lots of ways this could go and it could certainly be a minimal event, but also counter reasons why it could work out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Zzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 definitely no respect for the models in here...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 41 minutes ago, buckeye said: definitely no respect for the models in here...lol Zero 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 At least some ensemble support. Not a bad look at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Alek storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Big shift north with the wintry precip on the 12z GFS compared to the 00z. About 125 miles. If the trend continues I’ll be storm chasing this weekend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 All the models (minus the ICON) are going north this morning. The midnight Euro, plus the 12z UK and Canadian have snow through southeast Iowa. Here's the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The GEFS has some very interesting runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 I suppose there are no absolutes but generally speaking, I think slower solutions are more likely to end up farther north. In that case, the northern stream can't put as much of a cap on how far north this can come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I suppose there are no absolutes but generally speaking, I think slower solutions are more likely to end up farther north. In that case, the northern stream can't put as much of a cap on how far north this can come. Good point. Also, no way a respectable storm is trending south in this stew of meterological indice garbage. It either keeps heading nw or it dissolves and ends up a putrid weak reflection that slides under us and out to sea....(like this week's situation) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The north guidance is not surprising, with a lack of blocking and continued +AO/NAO.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro joining the north camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 maybe there'll be a severe aspect to track with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 23 minutes ago, buckeye said: Good point. Also, no way a respectable storm is trending south in this stew of meterological indice garbage. It either keeps heading nw or it dissolves and ends up a putrid weak reflection that slides under us and out to sea....(like this week's situation) Half of February 08 was spent in unfavourable phases (3-4-5-6) along with a +NAO/AO pattern. We can get lucky depending on where NPAC ridge sets up and how it impacts the gradient. A bit further east into the EPO domain could allow for a slightly suppressed SE ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Euro joining the north camp. Seems to be slower as well, but I am admittedly grasping at straws at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The EURO has a three punch storm. The third is further south than the GFS and CMC. Edit: That strong HP near Hudson Bay plays a major role IMO on how far north the storm comes and where the gradient sets up with a cold NE wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 It seems that a multiple-piece (snow)storm is favored by a lot of models, which would be interesting to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Malacka11 said: It seems that a multiple-piece (snow)storm is favored by a lot of models, which would be interesting to see. I'll take "interesting" at this point with the winter we've seen so far. I love interesting! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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