A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 And it's gone gif cued up for 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 5 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Lock er in. Bring out the needles,bring out the thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: That's actually incorrect. Look at the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean 2m temps over the northern Plains and northern Lakes next Friday and Saturday. There's pretty high confidence in a cold surface high being draped north of us based off MSLP anomalies in both ensembles. Euro/EPS have been getting stronger with the cold dumping into the NW during this period as well, more of an Arctic source region than a Pacific one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Euro/EPS have been getting stronger with the cold dumping into the NW during this period as well, more of an Arctic source region than a Pacific one.Although it's not registering as a -EPO on the teleconnection charts because of the strong negative height anomalies along the Pac NW coast, the mid week ridge spike over Alaska due to a deep ULL over the Bering Sea functions as a temporary -EPO to dislodge that very cold air and send it southeastward. Then it looks like another ridge spike over Alaska Friday into Saturday that's trended stronger on the EPS vs yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 Good post RC. Should be cold enough on the northwest fringe for snow/ice, so the bigger concern is how that southern wave tracks. Would be a kick in the pants to get missed to the south right after the other storm passes too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 12z Euro with two rain storms between now and next weekend. Zzzzz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 The downside to basically leaving the southern stream wave to its own devices is a fairly narrow area of wintry precip. We've had a tough time getting proper phases though so I'm almost ready to try anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 The trend recently in this pattern has been for bigger storms out in that range to come in weaker/strung out/not-phased. Case in point see the strung out/un-phased system moving across the region and East Coast the past few days, and then the upcoming strung out system around mid-week. Both were shown as sig winter storms just several days back. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The downside to basically leaving the southern stream wave to its own devices is a fairly narrow area of wintry precip. We've had a tough time getting proper phases though so I'm almost ready to try anything I trust nothing, especially the euro. I was really focusing and following the 'threat' that was showing for this coming week. If you recall, it started as a major low cutting to the lower lakes with a lot of wind and snow on the nw flanks. It then started to look like a Josh special with the low cutting through Ohio. Then came our turn with a few runs of the low tracking through KY. Now, it looks like it will end up a sloppy, slushy 1-2" event for DC. I see Chicago just ninja'd me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: The trend recently in this pattern has been for bigger storms out in that range to come in weaker/strung out. Case in point see the strung out/un-phased system moving across the region and East Coast the past few days, and then the upcoming strung out system around mid-week. Both were shown as sig winter storms just several days back. . it's so true. I can't think of a scenario where the euro was showing a wound up low, (say sub 990), in the long range, that ended up verifying stronger.....(unless it's a coastal low). 9 time out of 10 they weaken, flatten, shear out to nothing, or just disappear all together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 To put some perspective on the last decade for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 I was bored so I began watching a radar loop lol. The winter of 2004-05 was a fairly interesting and active winter for most of us. Got around 65.0" locally. Back when phased storms were a thing lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 While it hasn't been as torchy as late December (not a hard thing to accomplish since it was so far above average then), 2020 is off to a pretty mild start. Generally speaking, the mins have been farther above average than the maxes in the region, though there are some pretty significant positive departures with the maxes as well. Also, thought I would bump this map that I posted a while back. Pretty clear that the timeframe on this map is going to end up warmer than average in a lot of the N area, and substantially so. Not to bust on CPC, but I wonder why the warm signal was missed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Zzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: I was bored so I began watching a radar loop lol. The winter of 2004-05 was a fairly interesting and active winter for most of us. Got around 65.0" locally. Back when phased storms were a thing lol. Wasn't keeping stats back then, but I remember that winter being very benign for this area. Come to think of it, just like this POS winter lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2020 Author Share Posted January 5, 2020 Only about 5 more days to run out the clock on model runs lol This may not work out in the end but at least for now, it is set up in an okay way. The northern stream sort of scoots by harmlessly without acting to shunt the emerging southern stream wave really far south. One possibility is that the northern stream is more aggressive and acts as more of a suppressing agent but we aren't really seeing that on the latest runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Ice accumulations could be on the lighter side with this storm, especially at the surface. A lot of the areas with freezing rain reach high 40s and even low 50s on Friday afternoon. The wind speeds are also on the slower side. Of course trees and power lines could still be an issue regardless. Just something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 When did Hoosier take up drinking? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: When did Hoosier take up drinking? This isn't really necessary man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 19 minutes ago, Stebo said: This isn't really necessary man. Agreed dude! What gives Zzzz man?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 57 minutes ago, Stebo said: This isn't really necessary man. Didn’t Hoosier himself bring up his drinking on a post awhile back? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 16 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Didn’t Hoosier himself bring up his drinking on a post awhile back? I drink maybe a handful of times a year and don't even keep the stuff around. Try to be careful with what I do as I had an aunt who basically drank herself to death. I didn't take personal offense to Alek's comment but it can be a sensitive subject. On a weather related note, the ICON looks pretty crappy for the storm. Let's see what the GFS does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Didn’t Hoosier himself bring up his drinking on a post awhile back? He may have and I missed it, idk I just find it a tough subject to joke on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 GFS is pretty messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 0z GFS has one hell of an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Then snow on top of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: GFS is pretty messy. Look at that heavy precip feeding into the ice area. Would probably lose a significant amount to runoff though with those kind of rates unless temps are way below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Look at that heavy precip feeding into the ice area. Would probably lose a significant amount to runoff though with those kind of rates unless temps are way below freezing. I’ll play along since this is the best thing we’ve had to track in a while. Temps would be in the upper 20’s in much of that icy area. If the wintry side of this system doesn’t work out I’ll live vicariously through the Southeast forums and track the severe wx potential. SPC has Day 6 and 7 slight risks out already for the Deep South. Edit: Edited to include map zoomed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 A second ice storm in the same area out around day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Massive sleet storm on the CMC... yeah no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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