Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mimillman]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

The difference between a snowy/cold January and a warm/wet cutter January is that ridge being centered 500-1000 miles too far west.

[mimillman]

Textbook symptom of a textbook -PNA

[A-L-E-K]

i'd rather we just fully torch at this point

[buckeye]

19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i'd rather we just fully torch at this point

Agree.  40 and rain is nothing more than an agonizing reminder of what could have been whereas 50s and 60s has a way of making you forget winter.

[OHweather]

It's a bad pattern for snow (outside of a fluke event that I wouldn't get excited about until it's two days out) until at least the 20th-ish...jussst so we're clear I'm not expecting a flip anytime soon, but I think one comes before the end of the month. 

[OHweather]

15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Do you have any early thoughts on March/April by any chance?  Just very general ideas, like a normalish transition to spring or a winter that hangs on?

My early thought is it's a poor early spring...that's been the theme, a lot of analogs have it, and I think we're kind of wasting our western troughs now.  I can see something similar to last year where it's a slow start, but eventually flips to something more exciting in later April or May. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Winter cancel

[michsnowfreak]

15 minutes ago, OHweather said:

It's a bad pattern for snow (outside of a fluke event that I wouldn't get excited about until it's two days out) until at least the 20th-ish...jussst so we're clear I'm not expecting a flip anytime soon, but I think one comes before the end of the month. 

No doubt there will probably be fluke events, but as you said, pointless than expecting anything until it's 2 days or less out. The models seem extra up-and-down this year. Once the ridge starts moving further East, it seems as if the Great Lakes are in a bit of a battle zone, do you think that bodes well for a possible big winter storm?

[Cary67]

I still think you will get 2-4 weeks of a wintry pattern but that may occur in February or even March/April in some diluted fashion. I am feeling more confident that this winter will grade out as average at best and possibly horrendous at worst. Grades will vary on the forum depending on if their yards got hit when we do shift to that wintry pattern. Unlike the NE that can pile up snow 40-60" in a short period of time the Lakes(outside of LES areas) and OV won't hence the great winter grades should already be off the table. Of course some may say one 20" blizzard makes a great winter. Not me..

[michsnowfreak]

33 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

I still think you will get 2-4 weeks of a wintry pattern but that may occur in February or even March/April in some diluted fashion. I am feeling more confident that this winter will grade out as average at best and possibly horrendous at worst. Grades will vary on the forum depending on if their yards got hit when we do shift to that wintry pattern. Unlike the NE that can pile up snow 40-60" in a short period of time the Lakes(outside of LES areas) and OV won't hence the great winter grades should already be off the table. Of course some may say one 20" blizzard makes a great winter. Not me..

This has already felt like an East Coast Winter of sorts. We had a big snowstorm in November when 8 to 12" fell in metro Detroit, and since then very little. Obviously on paper we still had far more flakes and dustings than a typical East Coast Winter, but the overall feel is the same. Id prefer my more steady dose of 1-3/2-4/3-6 snows anytime over a big storm followed by zzzz.  I agree that 1 massive storm does not make a great Winter, however the irony is there used to be quite a contingent of people in this region on this forum who disliked our gray winters full of nuisance snow after nuisance snow, and instead preferred one huge storm then nothing (or so they said). You would think that moving forward if any pattern was conducive of a big dog, it's this one, with se ridge pumping warm air to our south and east and the cold building to the north and west. Certainly not saying its happening, just saying the chances are probably better than usual. I do feel it turns much colder later in January into February, hopefully we get into one of our good old cold clipper regimes. It will be very refreshing to see the complaints change to those of suppression

[Hoosier]

Lol at the system on the GFS around day 10.

[Malacka11]

I'm surprised at the lack of commentary on the 180-ish system shown on several models for a bit now

[DaveNay]

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Lol at the system on the GFS around day 10.

45 deg and rain....sounds about right...for late March.

[Chicago Storm]

I'm surprised at the lack of commentary on the 180-ish system shown on several models for a bit now

It hasn’t been shown consistently, and given the pattern we’re still in...it’s probably not even worth much discussion this far out.


.

[Snowstorms]

4 hours ago, OHweather said:

It's a bad pattern for snow (outside of a fluke event that I wouldn't get excited about until it's two days out) until at least the 20th-ish...jussst so we're clear I'm not expecting a flip anytime soon, but I think one comes before the end of the month. 

Regardless of a pattern change, it sucks to lose December and the better part of January especially during the lowest sun angle too. It's hard to make up for that. 

Expectations for this winter were pretty high back in Fall. Part of that was due to low solar, descending QBO and weak El Nino. All of which would contribute towards blocking over the Arctic and Pacific. Although models show a pretty stout Aleutian ridge, there's still no sign of any pending snowstorms, even in the fantasy range. Let's not forget we lost December and half of January last year too. There have been comparisons being made between 2007-08 and the upcoming H5 pattern. Any insight on that? 

[Snowstorms]

The January 7-8 threat has all but vanished on the models. Models show another rain maker/cutter around the 10th. 

As Alek said, if it ain't gonna snow let it torch. 

[Jonger]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This has already felt like an East Coast Winter of sorts. We had a big snowstorm in November when 8 to 12" fell in metro Detroit, and since then very little. Obviously on paper we still had far more flakes and dustings than a typical East Coast Winter, but the overall feel is the same. Id prefer my more steady dose of 1-3/2-4/3-6 snows anytime over a big storm followed by zzzz.  I agree that 1 massive storm does not make a great Winter, however the irony is there used to be quite a contingent of people in this region on this forum who disliked our gray winters full of nuisance snow after nuisance snow, and instead preferred one huge storm then nothing (or so they said). You would think that moving forward if any pattern was conducive of a big dog, it's this one, with se ridge pumping warm air to our south and east and the cold building to the north and west. Certainly not saying its happening, just saying the chances are probably better than usual. I do feel it turns much colder later in January into February, hopefully we get into one of our good old cold clipper regimes. It will be very refreshing to see the complaints change to those of suppression

Right now this is more like a London England winter.

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro has something on the 12th.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Right now this is more like a London England winter.

 Lol nah, it really has not rained much is just been boring.

[michsnowfreak]

20 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

This pattern has been very prevalent in the last few years. A lot of winters pre 1980 and even some 80's winters featured more consistent cold and snowy weather in DJFM. However, in recent times it feels like it's being crunched down into just a few weeks of intense wintry weather. Take for example, 2017-18. It was generally cold and snowy from December till early January and again in the first 2 weeks in February. Outside of those couple weeks it was mild to exceptionally warm for most of us. Spring/Summer 2019 featured strong blocking over the Arctic which nearly decimated the sea ice especially around the Sea of Chukotsk. However, as been the theme in recent years, Arctic blocking seems to be nonexistent in the winter. Could that be related to the heat being released from the Arctic during the fall after the sea ice loss in the summer? 

 

 One thing I've learned is that Winter's come a while they may have things in common with other winters, are like snowflakes. No 2 are the same. There were certainly a trio of harsh winters in the late 1970s, but as the whole, we've seen everything. I noticed that 1950s winters in the Great Lakes tended to have November and March snowstorms and often lots of mild spells during the heart of actual Winter.

[CheeselandSkies]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro has something on the 12th.

Wicked ice storm for the WI/IL line and southern lower MI and probably some severe with that convection in the warm sector. I'd take that.

[mimillman]

28 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Wicked ice storm for the WI/IL line and southern lower MI and probably some severe with that convection in the warm sector. I'd take that.

Don’t believe that surface depiction. The high is too Far East for a decent ice set up anywhere west of the Apps

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, mimillman said:

Don’t believe that surface depiction. The high is too Far East for a decent ice set up anywhere west of the Apps

Well, the high is indeed retreating eastward, but modeled surface winds are still easterly at that time, and it's overnight/early morning timing.  Perhaps a plausible situation, but good luck getting anything to lock in at this distance haha.  

[snowlover2]

Yeah GFS i'll pass on this thanks.

[snowlover2]

0z Euro says get the arks ready.

[andyhb]

That was a very 2008-like 00z Euro run. Probably a couple of severe wx events in the SE and a major winter storm with the first for Chicago/GRR. Big ice storm for DTX/Ontario.

[SchaumburgStormer]

 

18 minutes ago, andyhb said:

That was a very 2008-like 00z Euro run. Probably a couple of severe wx events in the SE and a major winter storm with the first for Chicago/GRR. Big ice storm for DTX/Ontario.

Lock er in.

[A-L-E-K]

Mirage, there is no cold

[RCNYILWX]

That was a very 2008-like 00z Euro run. Probably a couple of severe wx events in the SE and a major winter storm with the first for Chicago/GRR. Big ice storm for DTX/Ontario.

Strong ensemble support for that long of a lead time. Both 00z EPS and GEFS ensemble means have a surface low tracking up the Ohio Valley and expansive high pressure off to the north/northwest. Next weekend could be a window for snow for some of us, along with an icing zone in between as you mentioned, in an otherwise fairly hostile pattern.

Friday's cold front would temporarily shunt the low level baroclinic zone farther southeast and then the question is what comes of the southwest trough after it ejects. One way to avoid the phasing issues we've been having is to allow the southern stream wave to come up on its own and deepen due to the tight thermal gradient.

Just to use the operational runs to illustrate the point, the 00z Euro kept the northern stream wave much farther north, allowing the southern stream wave to come farther north. On the other hand the 00z and 06z GFS brought northern wave much farther south, compressing flow between it and southern wave, which flattens heights and keeps the southern wave moving quicker and farther south.

At the very least, some possibility of having more interesting weather to track.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[RCNYILWX]

Mirage, there is no cold

That's actually incorrect. Look at the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean 2m temps over the northern Plains and northern Lakes next Friday and Saturday. There's pretty high confidence in a cold surface high being draped north of us based off MSLP anomalies in both ensembles.