Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

If anybody is holding out hope for the weekend system, the northern stream vort that will play an influence won't be in the US until early Friday (Canada for tomorrow's runs).  

I haven't found this lack of sampling to be such a game-changer lately. For instance, the OHV slider that the GFS (and others) had as more of a panhandle hook. The slider look was pretty much dominant by other guidance prior to the wave getting ashore, and once it did there wasn't some massive last-minute shift. More or less just nailed the coffin on any last glimmer of cutter/hooker outcome. These last few winters have been underwhelming. Stretching avg snow totals out over a 6 month period with little staying power of any accumulations is no way to run a season. Give me the avg snow total condensed to 2 or even a solid 3 month period. Better yet, an above average amount compressed into same time frame. This is not only yawn-worthy, it's tiring, and almost a waste of time chasing ghost storms on guidance trying to guess which 1 out of 20 threats isn't just another mirage. Has to be better ways to spend one's time; like numbering the shingles on my roof perhaps..

[mimillman]

3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I haven't found this lack of sampling to be such a game-changer lately. For instance, the OHV slider that the GFS (and others) had as more of a panhandle hook. The slider look was pretty much dominant by other guidance prior to the wave getting ashore, and once it did there wasn't some massive last-minute shift. More or less just nailed the coffin on any last glimmer of cutter/hooker outcome. These last few winters have been underwhelming. Stretching avg snow totals out over a 6 month period with little staying power of any accumulations is no way to run a season. Give me the avg snow total condensed to 2 or even a solid 3 month period. Better yet, an above average amount compressed into same time frame. This is not only yawn-worthy, it's tiring, and almost a waste of time chasing ghost storms on guidance trying to guess which 1 out of 20 threats isn't just another mirage. Has to be better ways to spend one's time; like numbering the shingles on my roof perhaps..

Multi year bad stretches happen, that’s not new

[Hoosier]

28 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I haven't found this lack of sampling to be such a game-changer lately. For instance, the OHV slider that the GFS (and others) had as more of a panhandle hook. The slider look was pretty much dominant by other guidance prior to the wave getting ashore, and once it did there wasn't some massive last-minute shift. More or less just nailed the coffin on any last glimmer of cutter/hooker outcome. These last few winters have been underwhelming. Stretching avg snow totals out over a 6 month period with little staying power of any accumulations is no way to run a season. Give me the avg snow total condensed to 2 or even a solid 3 month period. Better yet, an above average amount compressed into same time frame. This is not only yawn-worthy, it's tiring, and almost a waste of time chasing ghost storms on guidance trying to guess which 1 out of 20 threats isn't just another mirage. Has to be better ways to spend one's time; like numbering the shingles on my roof perhaps..

I'm not predicting that it will trend favorably.  Would I be surprised to see a last minute more favorable trend?  Not really.  Sometimes you will see a noticeable adjustment in the models after everything gets into the RAOB network and sometimes not.  We often get the "when will it be sampled" question and there may be people wondering but not posting about it, so just threw it out there.  

[RogueWaves]

52 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Multi year bad stretches happen, that’s not new

Now now. Let's not down-play. Multi-year suckage is suckage multiplied! We knew we had it coming after a string of many great ones through this region. Doesn't make it any less pathetic tho. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Now now. Let's not down-play. Multi-year suckage is suckage multiplied! We knew we had it coming after a string of many great ones through this region. Doesn't make it any less pathetic tho. 

 There's so much left of this Winter though, very hard to dictate if it's going to end up being a big stinker or not. We have luckily been able to avoid the huge sucky years, outside of 2011-12, so hopefully we keep on keeping on.  The stat guy I am I has a new idea now lol, I'm going to try and look up what were the suckiest back-to-back winters.

[Stebo]

Interestingly enough a large number of GEFS members have latched onto the Saturday thing over the last couple of runs

[snowlover2]

0z GFS keeping the idea alive for the weekend.

[snowlover2]

[chuckster2012]

Move it south a little more..

[snowlover2]

0z GGEM also has the weekend snow showing up.

[Hoosier]

Man that is an epic ice storm on the clown range GFS. 

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzz

When you proclaimed awhile back that this was going to be your winter,  was that because you love nap time?

[A-L-E-K]

32 minutes ago, buckeye said:

When you proclaimed awhile back that this was going to be your winter,  was that because you love nap time?

 

you should know i never nap

[OHweather]

There’s light at the end of the tunnel...it will turn colder after mid-Jan. Just hope it’s gradual and doesn’t become suppressive too quickly.  Either way this break from winter isn’t going to last forever. 

[buckeye]

39 minutes ago, OHweather said:

There’s light at the end of the tunnel...it will turn colder after mid-Jan. Just hope it’s gradual and doesn’t become suppressive too quickly.  Either way this break from winter isn’t going to last forever. 

seen that light before

[RogueWaves]

A 9-day snowfall map from six yrs ago. Was that sh*t even real, or did we just imagine all that??

 

[Malacka11]

Rain or snow, there seems to be some consensus for a system around the 200 hour mark... Can't wait till this one gets nuked into near orbit in a couple days lol

[A-L-E-K]

best in the game^

[Snohio]

2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

A 9-day snowfall map from six yrs ago. Was that sh*t even real, or did we just imagine all that??

 

That winter is one of the big reasons I don't get upset about the lack of snow like I used to. 

[roardog]

1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

At least this year didn't have the hype of last year. The east coast establishment was sniffing out problems all the way in October, which was a red flag considering how cultist arm wavy they are. The season is acting like a basin wide strong el nino to a T............without a strong el nino. Always hope for the 2nd half of winter like 1900.

I’m pretty sure a strong El Niño isn’t known for a SE ridge and strong blocking SW of Alaska like we are headed. If anything that looks more like a strong La Niña.

[OHweather]

Yeah this pattern looks nothing like a strong El Nino...we'd have a giant negative anomaly just off the West Coast pumping a ridge over most of the continent with a modest trough over the SE, about the opposite of what we have now.  The issue has actually been a general lack of thunderstorms over the Pacific keeping the Pac jet too weak/retracted, putting ridging south of the Aleutians/near the Dateline (which is too far west) and a trough on the West Coast (pumping the SE ridge).  We had our most interesting pattern in and around November when we actually had a more prolonged flare-up of convection over the western/central Pacific.  We should get another more prolonged flare-up mid-January through the first week or two of Feb over the Pacific which is why I think a shakeup is coming.  It's going to be very cold over Canada and once we dislodge that south we may flip pretty abruptly.  

[Hoosier]

51 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Yeah this pattern looks nothing like a strong El Nino...we'd have a giant negative anomaly just off the West Coast pumping a ridge over most of the continent with a modest trough over the SE, about the opposite of what we have now.  The issue has actually been a general lack of thunderstorms over the Pacific keeping the Pac jet too weak/retracted, putting ridging south of the Aleutians/near the Dateline (which is too far west) and a trough on the West Coast (pumping the SE ridge).  We had our most interesting pattern in and around November when we actually had a more prolonged flare-up of convection over the western/central Pacific.  We should get another more prolonged flare-up mid-January through the first week or two of Feb over the Pacific which is why I think a shakeup is coming.  It's going to be very cold over Canada and once we dislodge that south we may flip pretty abruptly.  

Do you have any early thoughts on March/April by any chance?  Just very general ideas, like a normalish transition to spring or a winter that hangs on?

[Snowstorms]

This pattern has been very prevalent in the last few years. A lot of winters pre 1980 and even some 80's winters featured more consistent cold and snowy weather in DJFM. However, in recent times it feels like it's being crunched down into just a few weeks of intense wintry weather. Take for example, 2017-18. It was generally cold and snowy from December till early January and again in the first 2 weeks in February. Outside of those couple weeks it was mild to exceptionally warm for most of us. Spring/Summer 2019 featured strong blocking over the Arctic which nearly decimated the sea ice especially around the Sea of Chukotsk. However, as been the theme in recent years, Arctic blocking seems to be nonexistent in the winter. Could that be related to the heat being released from the Arctic during the fall after the sea ice loss in the summer? 

 

[RogueWaves]

GFS flashing more rainers for most of the Sub..can't wait for my 30 hrs of rain ending in flurries 

[WHEATCENT]

Lmao tonight's EURO has low 60s for me in Cleveland on the 12th of January 

[A-L-E-K]

It's getting worse not better

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, OHweather said:

Yeah this pattern looks nothing like a strong El Nino...we'd have a giant negative anomaly just off the West Coast pumping a ridge over most of the continent with a modest trough over the SE, about the opposite of what we have now.  The issue has actually been a general lack of thunderstorms over the Pacific keeping the Pac jet too weak/retracted, putting ridging south of the Aleutians/near the Dateline (which is too far west) and a trough on the West Coast (pumping the SE ridge).  We had our most interesting pattern in and around November when we actually had a more prolonged flare-up of convection over the western/central Pacific.  We should get another more prolonged flare-up mid-January through the first week or two of Feb over the Pacific which is why I think a shakeup is coming.  It's going to be very cold over Canada and once we dislodge that south we may flip pretty abruptly.  

Thanks for the update. For a bit now I've been kind of feeling that it was going to be a repeat of last year with the mild holding until late January when it turns much colder, and then last in to February. No doubt some will luck into some snow during the mild period, but it will not be fun times and the weather boards until the last third of the month lol

[mimillman]

Yea that was a horrendous run

[A-L-E-K]