Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Hoosier]

18z NAM looks pretty bad.  Maybe where we want it at this point though lol?

[IWXwx]

2 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

 

2 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Ride the euro

I'll ride it hard and put it away wet based on that map. lol (That's an equestrian term, just in case you were going there). Seriously, as Hoosier alluded to, that's the first run that's depicted that scenario. I'm more interested in around day 7, where it's been hinting at something for a couple of runs.

 

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, IWXwx said:

I'll ride it hard and put it away wet based on that map. lol (That's an equestrian term, just in case you were going there). Seriously, as Hoosier alluded to, that's the first run that's depicted that scenario. I'm more interested in around day 7, where it's been hinting at something for a couple of runs.

Yeah I am watching the day 7 system more than this appetizer.

[RCNYILWX]

Cross posting from January thread:

 

Can say with reasonable confidence that January will be active. The big question is how persistently amplified the southeast ridging is and the placement of Aleutian/AK ridging. Getting the ridging farther east into the EPO domain could make for a more than serviceable month for central, western and northern portions of the sub. Farther south and east could certainly be dicey if this weekend and next week's possible window is not cashed in on.  The January-February 2019 500 mb composite anomaly below and sensible weather results shows that the general idea being forecast by the longer ranges of the ensembles and Euro weeklies can work out really well for portions of the sub.  

 

On the other hand, a too amplified southeast ridge and Aleutian ridging too far west could make for a warm/rainy active month for much of the sub and congrats MSP and north/northwest. I don't think we can say yet for sure that the MJO being forecast to go with amplitude into the warm phases makes it a lock that it'll be a trash pattern even central and west, just that the warm risk is certainly there. If I'm recalling correctly, a good chunk of last January and February was spent in the warmer MJO phases. This shows it can work out for some of us, but did also make for the bad winter farther east and southeast in the sub and points east.

 

Also, I'd much rather have an active month biased warm that at least gives a chance for things to break right for a good event than endless cold and dry. Experience shows us that for a big dog we need at least some southeast ridging. The oscillating going on in later ranges of the EPS shows that we'll be on the edge so we'll have to wait and see which way things are leaning. Finally, with the likelihood of stout low level cold air masses northwest of here and warm press from SE ridge, we'll also have to watch for sig icing events in the battleground zone, similar to last February.

 

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[Baum]

^

agreed. and folks have a great new year! 

[mimillman]

23 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Cross posting from January thread:

 

Can say with reasonable confidence that January will be active. The big question is how persistently amplified the southeast ridging is and the placement of Aleutian/AK ridging. Getting the ridging farther east into the EPO domain could make for a more than serviceable month for central, western and northern portions of the sub. Farther south and east could certainly be dicey if this weekend and next week's possible window is not cashed in on.  The January-February 2019 500 mb composite anomaly below and sensible weather results shows that the general idea being forecast by the longer ranges of the ensembles and Euro weeklies can work out really well for portions of the sub.  

 

On the other hand, a too amplified southeast ridge and Aleutian ridging too far west could make for a warm/rainy active month for much of the sub and congrats MSP and north/northwest. I don't think we can yet for sure that the MJO being forecast to go with amplitude into the warm phases makes it a lock that it'll be a trash pattern even central and west, just that the warm risk is certainly there. If I'm recalling correctly, a good chunk of last January and February was spent in the warmer MJO phases. This shows it can work out for some of us, but did also make for the bad winter farther east and southeast in the sub and points east.

 

Also, I'd much rather have an active month biased warm that at least gives a chance for things to break right for a good event than endless cold and dry. Experience shows us that for a big dog we need at least some southeast ridging. The oscillating going on in later ranges of the EPS shows that we'll be on the edge so we'll have to wait and see which way things are leaning. Finally, with the likelihood of stout low level cold air masses northwest of here and warm press from SE ridge, we'll also have to watch for sig icing events in the battleground zone, similar to last February.

 

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10/10, can’t agree more

[snowlover2]

Looked like 0z GFS was trying for a snowier backside for the Saturday storm like the Euro had.

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[UMB WX]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzz

Look at that LES signal

[mimillman]

30 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Look at that LES signal

Lol what 

[RogueWaves]

11 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

Nah. Ain't happening. Looks too much like THIS

 

[UMB WX]

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Lol what 

 

Snowy backsides in DTX FTW

If only we could figure out again how to get a primary track to far SE MI again we'd be chicago weenieing  it.

 

[mimillman]

00z Euro with a Toledo special this weekend 

[snowlover2]

0z Euro still has the snowy idea this weekend.

[RogueWaves]

^^^ Man, what did Chicago do to earn such a long shafting by the snowstorm gods?? 

[Malacka11]

6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

^^^ Man, what did Chicago do to earn such a long shafting by the snowstorm gods?? 

The legend of the Snowstorm Gods states that there is a strict equilibrium to be held regarding snowfall. We here in Chicagoland watch as every event whiffs by us with only one eye; the other eye is trained on the extended, for there we shall find what we can only refer to as... The equalizer.

[RCNYILWX]

0z Euro still has the snowy idea this weekend.

Painful miss east

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[snowlover2]

0z Euro is the only one showing anything significant for the day 7 potential and it's back to more of a cutter idea.

[Thundersnow12]

Yeah, Joe won’t like the Euro for his trash calls

[RCNYILWX]

Yeah, Joe won’t like the Euro for his trash calls

Sign me up

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[Hoosier]

Can't believe the 00z Euro came in even more jacked for the weekend. 

[UMB WX]

Its probably going to be a decent winter yet.  It's going to be tough to shake the wet overall pattern we've been in.. Time that with the Jan/Feb climo and Bingo.   Take what you can get folks.

[A-L-E-K]

Euro is lol, what happened to that model

Constant fantasy range big dogs past few years

[Baum]

at this point I'm all in on "fantasy range big dogs"

 

[A-L-E-K]

Meh

[AWMT30]

Good ole NAM with a SE Michigan special 

[SchaumburgStormer]

After the shithole of a December we just had, I am actually on board with counting fantasy inches. Most fantasy action in weeks

[RogueWaves]

28 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

Good ole NAM with a SE Michigan special 

 

..and 6z Euro more a NWIN hitter. Hey guidance, let's just meet in the middle at my place, eh? 

[buckeye]

Models are all over the place with a 3-4 day storm....and not just a little bit.  

 

[michsnowfreak]

13 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Cross posting from January thread:

 

Can say with reasonable confidence that January will be active. The big question is how persistently amplified the southeast ridging is and the placement of Aleutian/AK ridging. Getting the ridging farther east into the EPO domain could make for a more than serviceable month for central, western and northern portions of the sub. Farther south and east could certainly be dicey if this weekend and next week's possible window is not cashed in on.  The January-February 2019 500 mb composite anomaly below and sensible weather results shows that the general idea being forecast by the longer ranges of the ensembles and Euro weeklies can work out really well for portions of the sub.  

 

On the other hand, a too amplified southeast ridge and Aleutian ridging too far west could make for a warm/rainy active month for much of the sub and congrats MSP and north/northwest. I don't think we can say yet for sure that the MJO being forecast to go with amplitude into the warm phases makes it a lock that it'll be a trash pattern even central and west, just that the warm risk is certainly there. If I'm recalling correctly, a good chunk of last January and February was spent in the warmer MJO phases. This shows it can work out for some of us, but did also make for the bad winter farther east and southeast in the sub and points east.

 

Also, I'd much rather have an active month biased warm that at least gives a chance for things to break right for a good event than endless cold and dry. Experience shows us that for a big dog we need at least some southeast ridging. The oscillating going on in later ranges of the EPS shows that we'll be on the edge so we'll have to wait and see which way things are leaning. Finally, with the likelihood of stout low level cold air masses northwest of here and warm press from SE ridge, we'll also have to watch for sig icing events in the battleground zone, similar to last February.

 

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This is an excellent post. I am one of those who does not mind cold and dry at all IF, and IF being the key word, there's a nice snowpack in place. I was one of those crazies taking a Winter walk last year in 40 below Windchills. That said, obviously a stormy scenario is the preference. And what everyone has to remember as we get deeper into Winter, January and February being our harshest Winter months, is that when we look at the long range maps we don't necessarily want to see a sea of dark blues over us. That may be something the mid Atlantic wants, but not the Great Lakes.  Ready to roll the dice and see how January plays out, but after a very boring stretch of December I'm sure most are happy to hear that active looks to be on the table.