RogueWaves Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: That's the control, right? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 More zonal look on the 8-10 day now. Will take that any day over this horrendous pattern. At least there will be opportunities to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 18z GFS is weaker and suppressed basically missing everyone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Well...I was previously going to mentioned how the Euro and GFS ENS had trended towards showing the potential for a much more favorable pattern coming up after the first week of January (7th)...A continued +AO, though with an NAO trending more neutral to -, along with a deepening -PNA and finally a legit -EPO. However, the Euro ENS have quickly trended back in the opposite direction, and are now back to what they were previously showing...with the same pattern that has been in place continuing... +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA...with a deepening -PNA. The GFS is kind of in the middle regarding things overall. There is also agreement between both the Euro and GFS ENS's on the MJO continuing to chug along, right on through the COD and into phases 4 and 5, which happen to be warmer phases of higher correlation at this time of year. I'd probably put more stock into what the Euro ENS are projecting, given their near stellar performance for a while now. If the Euro ENS are correct with teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO and upcoming movement of the main PV to settle in around Greenland in the future...more of the same pattern we've been in will continue (mild and snow-less overall), though more active overall. If the GFS ENS are correct, it will probably be a somewhat better pattern than we've been in, but still nothing to get too excited about. Probably a bit better cold/snow chances, however. tl;dr... zzzzz for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: tl;dr... zzzzz for now. OT but I was just looking at your signature and scratching my head, wondering how Illinois had more tornadoes in that dumpster fire of a 2018 season than this year. Then I remembered...December 1st. 2013 (November 17th) and 2016 (March 15th, June 22nd) are also further down than I'd have thought. No surprise 2011 and 2015 are tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Quote Probably a bit better cold/snow chances, however. 31/0z ICON reading you loud-n-clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 31/0z ICON reading you loud-n-clear I refuse to believe there would be marine influence to that extent in January. I mean come on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 ^ famous last words 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ famous last words Lake Michigan causing rain 75 miles inland in January would be something I don't remember seeing before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Lake Michigan causing rain 75 miles inland in January would be something I don't remember seeing before. Not sure it's just the lake shadow in this case since the entire event verbatim is a rain-to-snow scenario, so it's just trying to guess when that transition occurs. Need this colder for all concerned, not just you beach dwellers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Euro looks cute for the D-7 threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Euro looks cute for the D-7 threat 0z runs seem to put everything on the table. GFS was a suppressed nothing. GGEM was basically an apps runner and Euro was a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 I wouldn't call that Euro run a cutter. That hits most of the subforum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Stebo said: I wouldn't call that Euro run a cutter. That hits most of the subforum What determines whether it's a cutter or not is the geography of the poster. Of course that's a cutter to snowlover2....what's he suppose to call that? A hit? An app runner is a cutter to the i95 crew. A Milwaukee special is a cutter to you and a Fargo crusher is a cutter to Milwaukee. Happy New Year! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Any event like modeled on the 00z Euro has to be considered low probability this far out. But the good news is that it wasn't a one off. The 12z run yesterday had a system in a similar general area, just less phased and weaker. And there was modest 00z EPS member support for the time range. Can add next week to late Friday-Friday night possible rain to snow scenario for parts of the sub to *things to watch*. Of course the 12z operational GFS has no phasing at all with the northern and southern stream waves in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 12z Euro coming in with a decent storm this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Euro.... this run has better interaction between the lead, moist, wave and the upper energy diving in from Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro coming in with a decent storm this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 Sort of a questionable evolution with bouncing around between more of a coastal or inland low for a while, but we'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 If that happens in this unfavorable pattern...take it and run, and don't stop running. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Ride the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 initial take; it's too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 That was a cute Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2019 Author Share Posted December 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Euro.... this run has better interaction between the lead, moist, wave and the upper energy diving in from Iowa. Significant change from 00z. It is in the better window in terms of skill scoring but would still like to see another run or two of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 and the next one on tuesday goes south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 It's not a cutter folks, a cutter literally slashes in a E-W swath across the area. Your SW-NE swaths are typically panhandle hooks, if it runs up the spine of the Apps it is an App Runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Great run for a large part of the sub forum on the Euro. PV over Alaska is deadly. PV over Greenland, much more workable at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: Indianapolis trying to score 2 in a row about a month apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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