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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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8 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

0z GGEM and Euro both look really interesting for I-70 down to and south of the Ohio River for January 7. GGEM is Kuchera but Euro is not since it's not available on pivotal though i'd imagine it looks similar if not more than GGEM. GFS has a storm but it gets shoved to the gulf coast due to a likely overdone push of cold air.

snku_acc.us_ov.png

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

+ao /+nao/ +epo/ -pna/   I'm dubious of anything that looks like this/\

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

Goofus says winter is here

I suppose optimism is good and well-needed...but I wouldn't go that far.  Very limited supply of cold air in general, which means that we're depending on a "thread the needle" with most/all of the possible systems.  Not a good situation to be in even in Dec or Feb, much less January. 

Unfortunately, this current disaster of a pattern over the past 6 weeks (!!) has reset our standards to a new low.

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2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

I suppose optimism is good and well-needed...but I wouldn't go that far.  Very limited supply of cold air in general, which means that we're depending on a "thread the needle" with most/all of the possible systems.  Not a good situation to be in even in Dec or Feb, much less January. 

Unfortunately, this current disaster of a pattern over the past 6 weeks (!!) has reset our standards to a new low.

Yeah, it's a risky pattern for the heart of the sub.  Could pay off but I'd be very guarded.  Not a chronic torch at least.

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19 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z Euro looking like GFS. 

It's really hard to imagine any storm not cutting well nw of us under this current pattern.   Even the temporary cold shots will probably become muted as long range turns into short range.  Not being a downer....we are just in an absolutely hostile pattern for winter storms, at least through the first 10 days of January and probably well beyond.   

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January seems to potentially be more active than December was. I think those of us far enough North still see plenty of snow chances however it does appear to be a milder than average month. Really starting to think that those calling for a back loaded Winter are correct, where February is the harshest Winter month for the Eastern half of the country and it's another late Spring.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

It's really hard to imagine any storm not cutting well nw of us under this current pattern.   Even the temporary cold shots will probably become muted as long range turns into short range.  Not being a downer....we are just in an absolutely hostile pattern for winter storms, at least through the first 10 days of January and probably well beyond.   

Just seems fishy especially on the Euro to go from suppressed/non existant to that much of a cutter in 1 run and its members appear to confirm this. Majority are farther south and some much farther south giving snow to northern parts of MS/AL/GA/Carolinas.

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