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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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43 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

zzzzz...

Edit: Should mention that since my last post last week, the GEFS caved to the EPS in showing fairly close to the same as below.

tele.jpg.ee7bd8386cae2073ba8e9321c515b9ce.jpg

December snowfall prediction of not reaching double digits as a seasonal total looking good. Over/under on January finishing with 15" or less total is now on the table.

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00z Euro looks much better after the storm next week and finally showing signs of the PV breaking down in the 8-10 day range. I’m optimistic about mid Jan

Big change on past couple runs of EPS in the long range. Recent prior runs had parked the PV near Alaska for longer, which is obviously not a good look for us. 12z run yesterday and 00z run last night breaks that down much quicker, with ridging returning sooner to near AK and an active/colder h5 look. With how much waffling has been going on in the long range on the ensembles, not ready to say the flip on latest EPS is for real. We'll have to see how tropical forcing (MJO etc) progresses, and plays a role in NH pattern evolution.  Prior to those possible changes for the better taking place later during the first week of January, we'll have the brief cold shot behind this weekend's system followed by another warm-up due to the ++EPO from PV being over AK.

 

Hoping@OHweather stops by with some pattern thoughts like on 33andRain. And Merry Christmas everyone. Here's to a much better January hopefully.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

There has been a noticeable trend toward secondary low development late weekend/early next week across the guidance.  Unfortunately cold air doesn't get in very quickly as currently modeled.

Most models have it now. 12z GEM was almost identical to 12z Euro fwiw on the far west end of guidance at 12z Monday morning. ICON furthest east clear over in W NY. Long ways til consensus on track, spin, moisture, etc. Will have a major impact on my chances to score via Lk Mich help. Staying tuned tho. Better than nada to track

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6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Most models have it now. 12z GEM was almost identical to 12z Euro fwiw on the far west end of guidance at 12z Monday morning. ICON furthest east clear over in W NY. Long ways til consensus on track, spin, moisture, etc. Will have a major impact on my chances to score via Lk Mich help. Staying tuned tho. Better than nada to track

Always nice to have the Lake Michigan cheat code when synoptic ain't working out.

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone know what the week by week breakdown is like?

Week 1 Blowtorch

Week 2 near to slightly above normal.

Week 3 same only cooler than normal to the north and west

Week 4 same

Week 5 and beyond dartboard.


One thing that is consistent, it gets cold out west and stays that way through the duration.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Week 1 Blowtorch

Week 2 near to slightly above normal.

Week 3 same only cooler than normal to the north and west

Week 4 same

Week 5 and beyond dartboard.


One thing that is consistent, it gets cold out west and stays that way through the duration.

Well, in theory that could put the sub in a battle zone of sorts.  Hopefully we won't be taking loss after loss with storms always cutting too far west lol

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2 hours ago, Stebo said:

Week 1 Blowtorch

Week 2 near to slightly above normal.

Week 3 same only cooler than normal to the north and west

Week 4 same

Week 5 and beyond dartboard.


One thing that is consistent, it gets cold out west and stays that way through the duration.

Sounds like a La Nina pattern.

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