hawkeye_wx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 12z Euro.... boom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Latest three 12z Euro runs.... total cave. Would be a big score for the GFS if this ends up being the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 zzzzz... Edit: Should mention that since my last post last week, the GEFS caved to the EPS in showing fairly close to the same as below. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: zzzzz... Yikes! That's pretty awful. Positive everything, MJO looping right back into the warm phases. Let's hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Yeah not seeing anything good on the horizon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 It's Alaska's year. Not Cedar Rapids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'd take a repeat of last winter. December was blah and the first week of January was a blowtorch, but then the hammer dropped and we had the snowiest five week period on record. Winter ended after those five weeks, but it was an amazing period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Looks like a windy rainer this weekend instead of just a rainer. A few backside flurries would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 43 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: zzzzz... Edit: Should mention that since my last post last week, the GEFS caved to the EPS in showing fairly close to the same as below. December snowfall prediction of not reaching double digits as a seasonal total looking good. Over/under on January finishing with 15" or less total is now on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Still remember the warmth of Christmas 1982, and the record breaking cold one year later on Christmas. Appears the new Christmas sweater will have to wait...same as my snowblower a few years back. Merry Christmas all! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 00z Euro looks much better after the storm next week and finally showing signs of the PV breaking down in the 8-10 day range. I’m optimistic about mid Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Someone's gotta keep the faith 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 If you watch the 2m temp anomalies of the Euro loop to the north. There is a total sea of red for the entire 240 hour loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 Dropped into the 20s overnight again. Hope everyone has a good Christmas and the New Year brings the return of winter. EC showing a system 2nd/3rd for us but too far away to move the needle. Let's see if it can hold onto the idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 00z Euro looks much better after the storm next week and finally showing signs of the PV breaking down in the 8-10 day range. I’m optimistic about mid JanBig change on past couple runs of EPS in the long range. Recent prior runs had parked the PV near Alaska for longer, which is obviously not a good look for us. 12z run yesterday and 00z run last night breaks that down much quicker, with ridging returning sooner to near AK and an active/colder h5 look. With how much waffling has been going on in the long range on the ensembles, not ready to say the flip on latest EPS is for real. We'll have to see how tropical forcing (MJO etc) progresses, and plays a role in NH pattern evolution. Prior to those possible changes for the better taking place later during the first week of January, we'll have the brief cold shot behind this weekend's system followed by another warm-up due to the ++EPO from PV being over AK. Hoping@OHweather stops by with some pattern thoughts like on 33andRain. And Merry Christmas everyone. Here's to a much better January hopefully. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 25, 2019 Share Posted December 25, 2019 A little off-topic but damn, a 936mb blizzard would be interesting to experience! 18z GFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 2 hours ago, RobertSul said: A little off-topic but damn, a 936mb blizzard would be interesting to experience! 18z GFS: I would 100% drive out to the cape to see that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 I'll take Unrealistic Phenomena for $2000 Alex. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 nice. Even though it wouldn't happen here Id like to see it verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2019 Author Share Posted December 26, 2019 There has been a noticeable trend toward secondary low development late weekend/early next week across the guidance. Unfortunately cold air doesn't get in very quickly as currently modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 26, 2019 Share Posted December 26, 2019 The 240 hr snow map on the 12z Euro is a joke. Three storms and all of them are rain lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 GFS finally has fantasy range storms back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Euro still says "fuggetaboutit" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 10 hours ago, Hoosier said: There has been a noticeable trend toward secondary low development late weekend/early next week across the guidance. Unfortunately cold air doesn't get in very quickly as currently modeled. Most models have it now. 12z GEM was almost identical to 12z Euro fwiw on the far west end of guidance at 12z Monday morning. ICON furthest east clear over in W NY. Long ways til consensus on track, spin, moisture, etc. Will have a major impact on my chances to score via Lk Mich help. Staying tuned tho. Better than nada to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 27 minutes ago, DaveNay said: Euro still says "fuggetaboutit" Anyone know what the week by week breakdown is like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Most models have it now. 12z GEM was almost identical to 12z Euro fwiw on the far west end of guidance at 12z Monday morning. ICON furthest east clear over in W NY. Long ways til consensus on track, spin, moisture, etc. Will have a major impact on my chances to score via Lk Mich help. Staying tuned tho. Better than nada to track Always nice to have the Lake Michigan cheat code when synoptic ain't working out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Anyone know what the week by week breakdown is like? Week 1 Blowtorch Week 2 near to slightly above normal. Week 3 same only cooler than normal to the north and west Week 4 same Week 5 and beyond dartboard. One thing that is consistent, it gets cold out west and stays that way through the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 So much for our eastern trough winter. Can we at least do as well in Jan as last winter, and maybe improve a bit on Feb. After that, I'm all spring all the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Week 1 Blowtorch Week 2 near to slightly above normal. Week 3 same only cooler than normal to the north and west Week 4 same Week 5 and beyond dartboard. One thing that is consistent, it gets cold out west and stays that way through the duration. Well, in theory that could put the sub in a battle zone of sorts. Hopefully we won't be taking loss after loss with storms always cutting too far west lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Week 1 Blowtorch Week 2 near to slightly above normal. Week 3 same only cooler than normal to the north and west Week 4 same Week 5 and beyond dartboard. One thing that is consistent, it gets cold out west and stays that way through the duration. Sounds like a La Nina pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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