A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 12z Euro is a good case of a model almost going out of its way to drum up among the most boring outcomes possible. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 42 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z Euro is a good case of a model almost going out of its way to drum up among the most boring outcomes possible. Yeah, but it's finally starting to show some cold at the end of it's run. That's a first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 5 hours ago, Cary67 said: Unleash the futility posts. Predicted snowfall? 0eb24b53-f36d-4eef-974e-51492da583ed.mp4 310.76 kB · 0 downloads The Midwest got such a head start on the snow season that it will be virtually impossible to set futility records the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Larry Cosgrove seems to like January in the Midwest. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico. Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Can we save that surface pattern for May and June, please? Although the last few years have taught me not to blow off cool season chase opportunities.Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The Midwest got such a head start on the snow season that it will be virtually impossible to set futility records the season. Agreed... the seasonal futility records are already out of play in some areas, such as IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2019 Author Share Posted December 23, 2019 23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Larry Cosgrove seems to like January in the Midwest. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico. Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer. LC actually seems like one of the better long range guys over the years. At least he doesn't try to spin toward cold/snow on a regular basis, so this is more encouraging than somebody like JB saying it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LC actually seems like one of the better long range guys over the years. At least he doesn't try to spin toward cold/snow on a regular basis, so this is more encouraging than somebody like JB saying it. What he is saying is right, at the very least it isn't wall to wall blowtorch look starting around the first. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 I remember early season Euro "monthly" snow departure maps. Dec was a dud (check), but Jan and especially Feb were AN to much AN. So there's that fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: The Midwest got such a head start on the snow season that it will be virtually impossible to set futility records the season. The futility comment was more in reference to posters stating that winter is done more than actually breaking record minimal snowfall records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 One of these is gonna be way off 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 54 minutes ago, Hoosier said: One of these is gonna be way off The CMC joins ICON in completely erasing this storm from existence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 The GFS is the only model showing the phased cutter. The ICON, Canadian, UK, and Euro all look about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The GFS is the only model showing the phased cutter. The ICON, Canadian, UK, and Euro all look about the same. The updated (FV3) GFS is the Mitch Trubisky of forecast guidance. The Euro is Tom Brady. The GEM and ICON are Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tim Tebow. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Of course, the Euro decides to shake things up tonight. Here is the shift from last night's run to tonight's for the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Last thing I expected to see out of the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 So it caved to the GFS? Geeez.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 Yeah that was quite a shift. Just when you think you know the models. And the end of the 00z Euro has a major bomb in the making. Would've been nice to see that go out another 12-24 hours lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Miss east stank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 8 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The updated (FV3) GFS is the Mitch Trubisky of forecast guidance. The Euro is Tom Brady. The GEM and ICON are Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tim Tebow. The entire winter is Michael Vick - not actually in the game, yet everyone keeps talking about him. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Wondering if this torch is actually helping to warm up the lake and will come to bite us in January during any onshore flow events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 The other models are now caving to the GFS... the euro overnight and the ICON, Canadian, and UK this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 49 minutes ago, mimillman said: Wondering if this torch is actually helping to warm up the lake and will come to bite us in January during any onshore flow events. At least the near shore temps should come up a bit. Probably not major though. I think there would have to be a real junk airmass to still be causing issues near the lake in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The other models are now caving to the GFS... the euro overnight and the ICON, Canadian, and UK this morning. Figures. Remember my comment about the GFS tending to overamp but probably nailing this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Long range GFS after the system mid next week looks good. Just gotta get through the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 2 years ago we had that Christmas eve snowstorm. It wasn't a big storm, but it still dropped a couple inches for some of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2019 Author Share Posted December 24, 2019 If you're farther southeast, the only hope for this upcoming storm is if some additional energy can come around and sort of force the surface low to redevelop farther south/east. There are suggestions of it on some models so I guess we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 24, 2019 Share Posted December 24, 2019 Latest three 12z Euro runs.... total cave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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