chuckster2012 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: GFS has had an issue with overamping some storms in the long range but watch it nail this one How do you know it nailed it when it hasn't happened yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: How do you know it nailed it when it hasn't happened yet? Don't mind me. Been a tough month locally. Optimism hasn't worked so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Actually, it probably has nailed it. When it cuts that much it very rarely comes back down... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Don't mind me. Been a tough month locally. Optimism hasn't worked so... The lack of snow has gotten to Hoosier's head, that he's starting to believe the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 they hit December spot on when a lot of folks were calling for cold. Kudos to Chi storm also as while it was a bit delayed, which isn't unusual our Indian Summer is glorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: GFS has had an issue with overamping some storms in the long range but watch it nail this one It may come a bit south of that in the end, but ultimately for those of us not in the far N or NW of this sub, this is a continuation of last winter's "haves" and "have nots" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 Hope I'm wrong because I love a good snowy January....but I think some of these calls I'm seeing for a positive change soon after New Years, especially for the southeast half of the sub, are dubious at best. I'm basing this on the indices (ao, nao, epo, and mjo) looking pretty blah if not outright hostile in the long term. Hope it turns around and we can get a memorable stretch in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 The 12z Euro ensemble trended much colder into the first few days of 2020. Not sure if WxBell images are fair game, but here's the day 10-15 500 mb height anomaly prog. After that 1-2 run change, they reverted back.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 12z GFS says congrats to the Iowa crew for the weekend system. Too bad it's the GFS beyond 36hrs.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 47 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: After that 1-2 run change, they reverted back. . Soon the delayed but not denied movie will come to a theater near you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 joe's warm december call was good if a bit delayed, really not seeing any signs of change either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 I don't know if it's seeing all this bare ground or what but the month seems milder than it has been to date. Will be accelerating the positive departures for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 Delayed timing compared to GFS but of course we get a cutter on the 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 still a rainer with no real cold air to tap into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 This will be a nice wash all the salt off the roads system. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 32 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: still a rainer with no real cold air to tap into GFS has Chicago with 2" of backside snow. A step in the right direction for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: GFS has Chicago with 2" of backside snow. A step in the right direction for you. ICON flips to snow too. Guys, I'm optimistic again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 22, 2019 Author Share Posted December 22, 2019 Seriously though, cold air does look iffy no matter where it goes. Maybe there will be just enough for a band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I don't know if it's seeing all this bare ground or what but the month seems milder than it has been to date. Will be accelerating the positive departures for sure. Nothing new to see here. That map looks like almost every December since 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 The current look toward day 15 on both the GEFS and EPS looks kind of “Nina” to me. It looks like it would be stormy in this sub forum if that look became reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 22, 2019 Share Posted December 22, 2019 18 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Nothing new to see here. That map looks like almost every December since 2010. I think the biggest problems with this month prior to this week are: A lack of precip(extremely boring) The outrageous cold and snow in November which caused December to feel warmer than it really was so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Seriously though, cold air does look iffy no matter where it goes. Maybe there will be just enough for a band of snow. Didn't Chi-town get lucky with that Christmas '14 system? Razor thin marginal cold but still worked out for y'all. I could see something like that I suppose. Deepest snow around here that month was "T" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 5 hours ago, roardog said: I think the biggest problems with this month prior to this week are: A lack of precip(extremely boring) The outrageous cold and snow in November which caused December to feel warmer than it really was so far. This one's actually been decent by this decade's stds (which isn't saying much tbh) December futility rankings this past decade (based on 1"+ snow cover days): 1. 2014 2. 2018 3. 2015 4. 2011 5. 2019? 6. 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Didn't Chi-town get lucky with that Christmas '14 system? Razor thin marginal cold but still worked out for y'all. I could see something like that I suppose. Deepest snow around here that month was "T"We didn't get lucky. The system looked promising for a band of heavy wet snow on most of the guidance and then things fell apart last minute. I issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Chicago metro and we got a FAB (flurries at best). Thankfully we made up for that debacle with GHD II.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 Indices are brutal as far as the models go out..... +AO, +NAO, PNA neutral going to negative, +EPO, and MJO moving from COD into 6 and 5. We need something to shake things up badly. in the meantime.... Merry Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 28 minutes ago, buckeye said: Indices are brutal as far as the models go out..... +AO, +NAO, PNA neutral going to negative, +EPO, and MJO moving from COD into 6 and 5. We need something to shake things up badly. in the meantime.... Merry Christmas The polar vortex is mega mega mega strong. Everywhere in the world is warmer than normal, except the arctic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 another warm winter, lame spring incoming 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: another warm winter, lame spring incoming If January is going to be lame then bring on a 2012 Feb and March redux! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 1 hour ago, mimillman said: The polar vortex is mega mega mega strong. Everywhere in the world is warmer than normal, except the arctic. Which is the opposite of what "low solar" should be bringing us. This 3rd rock from the sun is really screwed up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 23, 2019 Share Posted December 23, 2019 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: another warm winter, lame spring incoming Unleash the futility posts. Predicted snowfall? 0eb24b53-f36d-4eef-974e-51492da583ed.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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