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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

November was almost 6° colder than avg and December to date is running less than 1° above avg. You are talking as if it's been a nonstop torch with no end in sight. To answer your question, Feb 1st if there's been no more cold and nothing in sight, then its time to give up on that. Snow wise, we literally have 4 more months of measurable snow potential and as we head towards the dead of winter even mild temps can yield good snow. Bottom line, barring torching, as we head into winter storminess is more of a concern than it being cold enough to snow 

I'll take 2.5 more months.  You can have second half of March and April....yuck

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 12z Euro ensemble trended much colder into the first few days of 2020. Not sure if WxBell images are fair game, but here's the day 10-15 500 mb height anomaly prog.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

c4c97152b39870e5ac6405b4d569887f.jpg

Still strong, consolidated PV. Really need that to breakdown to get something more impressive/sustainable.

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Probably the wrong thread, and not a troll as I'd love a snowstorm, but not freezing my azz off with a bit of sun while getting the Christmas cheer accomplished isn't depressing me to bad. Winter will come soon enough, and hopefully it's gone by the end of March this year.

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

The 12z Euro ensemble trended much colder into the first few days of 2020. Not sure if WxBell images are fair game, but here's the day 10-15 500 mb height anomaly prog.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

c4c97152b39870e5ac6405b4d569887f.jpg

Euro also has followed the GEFS lead in taking the EPO more than a little bit negative, and it's weeklies are looking colder as well. TBD tho on the battle of the MJO. I think endless torch or blah wx may have been over sold

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

Probably the wrong thread, and not a troll as I'd love a snowstorm, but not freezing my azz off with a bit of sun while getting the Christmas cheer accomplished isn't depressing me to bad. Winter will come soon enough, and hopefully it's gone by the end of March this year.

Even better is the nice covering of white I've had this week before Christmas and it came in a way that didn't really snarl traffic much. Light duty clean-up too. Perfecto!  for this busy time.. 

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28 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Those maps look good on the surface. They say nothing wrt timing of cold/moisture and just how much snow is produced where. Other than that caveat, I have zero issues with 'em. 

Good point.  No guarantees on how individual storms work out, but if it does end up near/colder than average and wetter than average, you'd take your chances with that combination.

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