Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Hoosier]

12z Euro sends a low toward the western Lakes but there is energy in the Rockies at 168 hrs... let's see if we get a second low to form farther south/east.

[Thundersnow12]

Hot look 

 

[Thundersnow12]

2-5" swath verbatim from STL to Chi metro

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Hot look 

 

Explosive deepening around/after this time.

[Hoosier]

[Hoosier]

2 snow swaths on the 12z Euro... The one that Thundersnow mentioned from Missouri northeastward and a heavier one farther west that precedes it.

[A-L-E-K]

legit potential given magnitude of the early season cold and potential phase in the subforum, obv need lots to go right this time of year but a good early threat

[Hoosier]

Maybe the best October synoptic snow potential in the sub since 1997?

Like Alek said, not easy to pull off at this time of year.  Multiple ways to fail... one of them would be if there's no follow up piece of energy like the Euro suggests and results in a storm too far north/west to do most of us any good.  

[Natester]

12z Euro says repeat of 1991 (Halloween blizzard), albeit a couple days early, not as much wind and hardly any ice.  Also, somewhere down the line I expect the GFS to latch on to this potential storm, unless the Euro and CMC loses the storm.

[Hoosier]

The 12z Euro deepens the system by 15 mb in 6 hours and 27 mb in 12 hours as it is leaving the US and moving into Canada.  How impressive is that rate of deepening?  Well, the 1978 Ohio superbomb deepened 16 mb in 6 hours and 30 mb in 12 hours... but it accomplished that at a farther south latitude from AL to Lake Erie.  A little bit less impressive to do it where the Euro does, but still very impressive nonetheless.

That being said, this is still in model fantasy land and very much subject to change.   

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The 12z Euro deepens the system by 15 mb in 6 hours and 27 mb in 12 hours as it is leaving the US and moving into Canada.  How impressive is that rate of deepening?  Well, the 1978 Ohio superbomb deepened 16 mb in 6 hours and 30 mb in 12 hours... but it accomplished that at a farther south latitude from AL to Lake Erie.  A little bit less impressive to do it where the Euro does, but still very impressive nonetheless.

That being said, this is still in model fantasy land and very much subject to change.   

Lots to sort out, but I appreciate the historical comparison/context. As noted, the latitude of the CSB may never be equaled. I mean, lots of storms hit 950mb way up in the Bering Sea for instance. But down where people live?, nasso much. GRR notes 3 systems on tap in their pm AFD including possible winter impacts from next week's. If this is the winter trend, that's gonna be one heck of a busy office.  

[Hoosier]

GFS ain't biting, so why not

[Hoosier]

That is a tree wrecker on the 00z Euro.  Impressive winds on the back side.

[buckeye]

Interesting model test to see what actually evolves.  In the past couple of seasons how many deepening sub 990 lows for the lakes and OV were modeled this far out only to go from thump to real time dud.  

[Malacka11]

Nice.

[Hoosier]

12z GFS doesn't do much.  However, looking at dprog/dt, I get the sense that maybe it is slooowly trying to get there.  

Meanwhile, the 12z ICON develops much like the 00z Euro.  

[Natester]

ICON shows wind gusts approaching 80 mph over much of eastern Iowa with the late week blizzard, with snow accumulations over a foot.  As for the Euro, the wind gusts are nowhere near as strong (only in the 40 mph range).  We'll see if the 12z CMC shows it too because it looks like a repeat of 1991, except farther east and without the ice.

[Hoosier]

It is hard to overstate the tree damage that would occur on these rapidly bombing model solutions, even in areas with little/no snow, but let alone areas that get more significant snow.  We don't see bombing of this magnitude squarely in the sub that often, and there is a tremendous low level wind response as that happens.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Natester said:

ICON shows wind gusts approaching 80 mph over much of eastern Iowa with the late week blizzard, with snow accumulations over a foot.  As for the Euro, the wind gusts are nowhere near as strong (only in the 40 mph range).  We'll see if the 12z CMC shows it too because it looks like a repeat of 1991, except farther east and without the ice.

Euro had the higher gusts farther east I think (going off memory)

[Malacka11]

This is getting rather exciting.

[Thundersnow12]

GEFS mean and members look like they made a small jump to the Euro camp and as posted, the 12z GEM jumped more towards the Euro. 

[Geoboy645]

54 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

This is getting rather exciting.

Is that 10 inches over me? Getting started the same way we left off last year I see.

[A-L-E-K]

Bombs ahoy

[Thundersnow12]

North of DBQ ends up the jackpot zone with 20" between both systems. 

Half inch for ORD. A nice nickel and dimer 

[Hoosier]

There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level.

[Thundersnow12]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level.

Deepens 24mb in 12 hours lol

1002mb nw IN Thursday evening to 978mb Fri morning over far nrn MI

[Natester]

These two snowstorms are going to be disastrous to the harvest.  Millions of dollars of crops will likely be lost due to the snow.  Also, not so good news for the power grid as much of the trees still have leaves on them.

[RogueWaves]

Power grid looks to be a disaster. NOT excited about backside flurries and multi-day power outage scenario - pass! 

[RogueWaves]

2 minutes ago, Natester said:

Due to wind, snow or both?

"There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level."

 

Per Hoosier's read on the winds at 850 mixing down in SWMI. I'm too far inland to score much snow as it stands now, so mainly just the winds. 11-17-13 was the snow-less version and the whole town went dark. 

[Natester]

44 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

"There is an 850 mb max upwards of 75 kts in lower MI at 192 hours, most of which would probably mix down given the situation with a rapidly bombing low.

There is quick deepening and then there is what we are seeing on models like the Euro (and ICON), which is on a different level."

 

Per Hoosier's read on the winds at 850 mixing down in SWMI. I'm too far inland to score much snow as it stands now, so mainly just the winds. 11-17-13 was the snow-less version and the whole town went dark. 

Yikes!  For here, the winds won't be too bad in the late week system (although gusts will approach 40 mph), although we could get 4-6 inches of snow from that.  The early week system snow line looks to be just west of west of here.  Nonetheless, going to be disastrous for the crops as the harvest hasn't even began.  The October 26, 1997 snowstorm ruined almost all of the soybean crop and half of the corn crop in the affected areas, according to the NCDC event log for that snowstorm.