Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I would say it's equal chances. The long range is nothing more than laughs, at least from an operational standpoint. Ensembles can be good for changes in patterns, but actual op runs are worthless. Speaking of ensembles, it does appear that much colder weather is on tap as we start the New Year. I've heard a couple people cite 2014-15, and I could certainly take a Winter like that. The "people" have been wrong so far. So I wouldn't put too much stock into what they say. However on the flip side, it does appear there is support for the potential of a more favorable pattern for cold/snow around or after the New Year. The GFS ENS are more gung-ho on this than the Euro ENS though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Inching toward a better look over the last day or so. The western trough has been moving ever so slightly to the East each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 hours ago, DaveNay said: Met's, please educate me. Are long range (340 hr) forecasts of "nothing happening" more accurate than long range major storms? We have all seen the "clown maps" of insane forecasts at those ranges and know that they are likely to disappear. Does this mean that there is an equal chance of an event showing up out of nothing on models like we currently have? Long range storms at least signify potential. When you are consistently showing nothing, the signal is for a pattern to produce nothing. It isn't just the GFS either, but the GEFS/EPS also are coming up with nothing through their runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 Wasn't that long ago that storminess was showing up around/after Christmas. Perhaps we are in the lose the storm(s) phase of the modeling. Action either way would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 5 hours ago, Nelson said: Inching toward a better look over the last day or so. The western trough has been moving ever so slightly to the East each run. Shuffling deck chairs on the titanic 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 18z GFS has a nice hit for Hawkeye around the 270hr mark. Yeah it's about two weeks away, but that's about all there is to talk about lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 1 hour ago, buckeye said: Shuffling deck chairs on the titanic yeah, i guess 'better' is relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 brutal stretch with no relief on the horizon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Is it just me, or has the 12Z Euro totally change it's town from Christmas on?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 Looks lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 You know it ain't good when the gfs starts losing its usual 300+ hour fantasy Arctic outbreaks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 18, 2019 Share Posted December 18, 2019 but better than this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Worse actually, would rather have the micro torch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 It's coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, Nelson said: It's coming.... Shuffling deck chairs on the titanic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Outside of the western portion of the MW, probably... but it's sooooo boring otherwise. I get pleasure in showing the trough slowly nudging east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Also, with that look, and the agreement (which is a small feat in and of itself), something is going to pop. It may be too far west for most of us to care but it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 14 hours ago, Nelson said: Also, with that look, and the agreement (which is a small feat in and of itself), something is going to pop. It may be too far west for most of us to care but it's something. There! you've said it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 20 hours ago, Nelson said: It's coming.... Might squeeze some dixie severe out of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Looks like the next system of consequence will be next weekend. Looks like it may be a rainer for most of us, but at least it's something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 As you could probably figure out by the current/upcoming pattern, the Euro ENS were correct in handling/depicting a +EPO...while the GFS ENS failed horribly. The bad news...If ENS have a good handle on things, that upcoming potential pattern change guidance was hinting at to end December and begin January might be in jeopardy. The Euro and GFS ENS are showing a continued +EPO continue right on into early January. On top of that, the Euro ENS also have a +AO/+NAO/neutral PNA set in as well. The GFS ENS are a bit more subdue overall, more similar to what we are seeing now. Also of note, is that some of the GFS and Euro ENS have the MJO moving from the COD on into phase 6 for the late Dec/early Jan time-frame. If that were to happen, combined with the potential teleconnections in projected, and the fact the main PV will be up over the North Pole/Siberia...things *could* get even more torchy/snow-less...and that's saying something given how the past 5 weeks have been. Not saying that will happen... But the projected teleconnections alone should be a concern that an overall mild/snow-less pattern continues into at least early January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Yep, lets just fast forward to mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 0Z GFS hinting at a system towards the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GFS hinting at a system towards the end of the month Not everyday you see a storm transfer from NW IL to just SE of Cincy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2019 Author Share Posted December 20, 2019 I'll take action of any kind at this point. Been unbelievably boring locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 7 hours ago, Stebo said: Yep, lets just fast forward to mid March No thanks. Plenty of winter fun ahead. I am wondering if its a repeat of last winter in terms of false cold on the models to open January and the cold held off til mid January then winter was here (for the most part) from mid Jan to mid Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 zzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: No thanks. Plenty of winter fun ahead. I am wondering if its a repeat of last winter in terms of false cold on the models to open January and the cold held off til mid January then winter was here (for the most part) from mid Jan to mid Mar. Or it could be the models provide false cold till the end of January or early February. A question: At what point does delayed but not denied become too late. As in at some point nah just keep your 3 weeks of winter. What if it doesn't really come till late February or early March. For me if this winter is still worthless by Jan.20th forget it. Laughable for how wet its been all year long for us to dry out as you head into winter. ie Nov. Dec. well below normal precip. wise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 I mean it still sucks but admittedly there’s more action in the long range than before. GFS and Euro both hinting end month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 5 hours ago, Cary67 said: Or it could be the models provide false cold till the end of January or early February. A question: At what point does delayed but not denied become too late. As in at some point nah just keep your 3 weeks of winter. What if it doesn't really come till late February or early March. For me if this winter is still worthless by Jan.20th forget it. Laughable for how wet its been all year long for us to dry out as you head into winter. ie Nov. Dec. well below normal precip. wise November was almost 6° colder than avg and December to date is running less than 1° above avg. You are talking as if it's been a nonstop torch with no end in sight. To answer your question, Feb 1st if there's been no more cold and nothing in sight, then its time to give up on that. Snow wise, we literally have 4 more months of measurable snow potential and as we head towards the dead of winter even mild temps can yield good snow. Bottom line, barring torching, as we head into winter storminess is more of a concern than it being cold enough to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now