Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 On 12/9/2019 at 7:11 AM, Chicago Storm said: ENS finally showing changes... Growing support for a neutral to - AO/NAO/PNA starting next weekend. MJO looks likely to head back into the COD, staying out of warmer phases. Add in the PV chunk that will take hold in the Hudson region. Should lead to more cold shots and chances for snow...finally...for next week. Hopefully can get something going for a white Christmas. . On the flip side to this... the Euro ENS and the +EPO it has is a perfect example of what can go wrong, potentially leading to a continued mild/snowless pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 punt until 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 quite the range of posts in this thread. All within the past 24 hours. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 31 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Gotta be a bit concerned about the lack of cold showing up in the days before the holiday. Do we get it back in time or will we be lamenting about how the grinch stole Christmas? Actually the 12Z GFS ensembles are the coldest theyve been in days. The model circus will just continue to go up-and-down all through the Winter and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I hate reading this thread, when a page takes days to complete. Punts, ZZZZzz's, November snows and south stank are like horderves. They kind of tie you over until the main course. Although, I can't wait for the first seasonal weenie melt down and winter to hunker in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 So summarizing today on 16/17 “threat”: 12z GFS goes north 12z Euro goes south (weaker) Is that about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Actually the 12Z GFS ensembles are the coldest theyve been in days. The model circus will just continue to go up-and-down all through the Winter and beyond. That's true... they have trended colder. Doesn't negate the concern though. And lack of cold doesn't necessarily mean all out torch, it just means, well, not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: So summarizing today on 16/17 “threat”: 12z GFS goes north 12z Euro goes south (weaker) Is that about right? GFS is on the northern end, but it has actually shifted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: So summarizing today on 16/17 “threat”: 12z GFS goes north 12z Euro goes south (weaker) Is that about right? Heading towards Ukie and Chistorm December and punts away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: GFS is on the northern end, but it has actually shifted south. As I said awhile back....its all fluff until it's inside of 48hrs showing the same solution on the euro plus 2 additional major models. Scoring in this pattern is like trying to get a rabbit pregnant by throwing it in a tumbling dryer with 10 other horny rabbits. Sure it can happen but there's gonna be a lot more thump'n and bump'n before any hump'n. 4 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 GFS just trended somewhat farther north again. Come on man, if it's gonna cave then at last let it be soon/gradual instead of abrupt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Probably not going to get any reliable sampling on that wave until about Sunday. I'll hold onto my hat until then but that leaves plenty of time for dreamin'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 The GFS has been atrocious all cool season. No reason yet to put much stock in it until more modeling supports it with next week's potential system. Today's 12z EPS has less members getting snow up this far north. Just have to hope the blind squirrel finds a nut this time. Another note on GFS/GEFS: the GEFS has always been known to be inferior to the EPS because it has less members and it's too non-dispersive (runs too close to the operational). The "upgraded" GFS and the current iteration of the GEFS aren't even based off the same physics package, since the GEFS hasn't been upgraded to the new GFS physics yet. So that probably makes it more of an apples to pears comparison between the op and the ensemble now. The ECMWF and EPS will certainly have misses (such as what it showed for Saturday just a couple nights ago) because it's still a computer modelling system, but it's by far superior and perhaps the gap has grown despite the large sums of money poured into the GFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 just ride the euro edit: or what ricky said, best in the game etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 1 hour ago, buckeye said: As I said awhile back....its all fluff until it's inside of 48hrs showing the same solution on the euro plus 2 additional major models. Scoring in this pattern is like trying to get a rabbit pregnant by throwing it in a tumbling dryer with 10 other horny rabbits. Sure it can happen but there's gonna be a lot more thump'n and bump'n before any hump'n. Where do you come up w/ these!!! Love it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The GFS has been atrocious all cool season. No reason yet to put much stock in it until more modeling supports it with next week's potential system. Today's 12z EPS has less members getting snow up this far north. Just have to hope the blind squirrel finds a nut this time. Another note on GFS/GEFS: the GEFS has always been known to be inferior to the EPS because it has less members and it's too non-dispersive (runs too close to the operational). The "upgraded" GFS and the current iteration of the GEFS aren't even based off the same physics package, since the GEFS hasn't been upgraded to the new GFS physics yet. So that probably makes it more of an apples to pears comparison between the op and the ensemble now. The ECMWF and EPS will certainly have misses (such as what it showed for Saturday just a couple nights ago) because it's still a computer modelling system, but it's by far superior and perhaps the gap has grown despite the large sums of money poured into the GFS. What is your take on the Euro and its ensembles being notoriously dry with cold season precip in the cold sector of systems. Been noticing that since the upgrade before last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Is the screaming pacific Jet(similar to last year at this time) really expected to flood the country with pacific air until early January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 What is your take on the Euro and its ensembles being notoriously dry with cold season precip in the cold sector of systems. Been noticing that since the upgrade before last winter.I haven't noticed it to be a significant issue, maybe with a few events, would have to collect some verification data to know for sure. The Euro was even too wet locally with some of the early season snow systems this year. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I haven't noticed it to be a significant issue, maybe with a few events, would have to collect some verification data to know for sure. The Euro was even too wet locally with some of the early season snow systems this year. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Euro was way too dry with the November 11th snowstorm out this way, then again most models were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 Almost all of the 18z GEFS members have a decent storm and a majority of them are on the northern side, which is kind of interesting because as RC mentioned, the GEFS isn't running with the upgrade of the op GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 18z EPS mean came north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Thundersnow12 said: 18z EPS mean came north More low centers north of the river/not in TN/MS/AL. Something to monitor for sure for a trend or just a blip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 That intense Pacific jet stream is gonna play alot of "games" on the models. So I wouldn't be sold out on anything, yet. There's a good chance this storm could end up being a total dud. Likewise, it could also be noteworthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 00z GFS is coming in hot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 The low end scenario for this seems like a modest event in the OV, while the higher end scenario is a stronger storm a bit farther north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The low end scenario for this seems like a modest event in the OV, while the higher end scenario is a stronger storm a bit farther north. Or like the 00z Icon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z GFS is coming in hot. You aren't kidding, hell some of the soundings for here have PWATs near .70 with an all snow profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Or like the 00z Icon! Gotta be one garbage model in the bunch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 12 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Nah, some north, some south. A meet in the middle works. Can we get back to this tho is the question? 0z GFS just tried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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