Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[cyclone77]

Definitely looking very windy late Tue night through Wed.  Looks like 50-60mph wind potential for this area points east Wed.  The Euro indicates another big wind maker for the weekend as well.

[RogueWaves]

Yep, fun week even if we're not in the snowy side (most of us)

[A-L-E-K]

Cold clipper pattern following the cutters should be next window for snow.

[Hoosier]

If you're in northern IL you look at this and think hey, maybe a decent snow on the way.  

Nope

[RogueWaves]

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If you're in northern IL you look at this and think hey, maybe a decent snow on the way.  

Nope

Best case scenario is that a weaker lead wave could tug the thermal boundary south enough enough so the main wave ejects further south. 

[michsnowfreak]

Seems like a confusing long range. Op gfs looks kind of mild, its ensembles decidedly colder but cfs way colder. Yet i thought the bias were gfs to run cold and cfs warm. Hmmm

[Chicago Storm]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Seems like a confusing long range. Op gfs looks kind of mild, its ensembles decidedly colder but cfs way colder. Yet i thought the bias were gfs to run cold and cfs warm. Hmmm

ENS take the EPO/AO/NAO/PNA all neutral to +, some very +.

Could have a decent stretch of mild and winter-less upcoming.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ENS take the EPO/AO/NAO/PNA all neutral to +, some very +.

Could have a decent stretch of mild and winter-less upcoming.

What time frame? Hopefully past mid month towards christmas turns wintry again.

[Snowstorms]

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ENS take the EPO/AO/NAO/PNA all neutral to +, some very +.

Could have a decent stretch of mild and winter-less upcoming.

+ENSO and +IOD forcing playing a role in that. As well, models are hinting at the MJO trekking its way into phases 2-3 near mid-December which translates to a warmer pattern for us. Going to have to see if the upcoming -NAO/AO can hold on a bit longer. In recent years, Atlantic blocking has been abysmal so it wouldn't surprise me if it breaks down quickly. 

Regardless, the cooler anomalies in the first week of December won't be anything insane. Without proper blocking, it'll most likely be transient cold. 

[Gino27]

12 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

+ENSO and +IOD forcing playing a role in that. As well, models are hinting at the MJO trekking its way into phases 2-3 near mid-December which translates to a warmer pattern for us. Going to have to see if the upcoming -NAO/AO can hold on a bit longer. In recent years, Atlantic blocking has been abysmal so it wouldn't surprise me if it breaks down quickly. 

Regardless, the cooler anomalies in the first week of December won't be anything insane. Without proper blocking, it'll most likely be transient cold. 

Ugh. These early season teases really set me up for disappointment in December. Hopefully any mild stretch is short lived. Last year's went for like 5 or 6 weeks. Wasn't it a raging pacific jet that killed us? Are there any signs of something like that for this year?

[Frog Town]

33 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Ugh. These early season teases really set me up for disappointment in December. Hopefully any mild stretch is short lived. Last year's went for like 5 or 6 weeks. Wasn't it a raging pacific jet that killed us? Are there any signs of something like that for this year?

An exact repeat of that is what it looks like.  

[Hoosier]

Just waiting for the first "see, I knew getting that early snow was a bad sign for winter."  

 

[Cary67]

5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ENS take the EPO/AO/NAO/PNA all neutral to +, some very +.

Could have a decent stretch of mild and winter-less upcoming.

To be expected. Snowy Novembers lead to snowless Decembers. 

[Hoosier]

Just now, Cary67 said:

To be expected. Snowy Novembers lead to snowless Decembers. 

See my above post.  Wow.  Lol

[Stebo]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Just waiting for the first "see, I knew getting that early snow was a bad sign for winter."  

 

Locally it is true since the late 70s. snowy November has equaled a less snowy December since the late 70s locally. Before than it is more mixed.

[Cary67]

58 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

See my above post.  Wow.  Lol

I had to and directly below your post.lol. Even though the sample size is small snowier falls have led to below average snow years at ORD

[Geoboy645]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Just waiting for the first "see, I knew getting that early snow was a bad sign for winter."  

 

See, I knew getting that early snow was a bad sign for winter. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

+ENSO and +IOD forcing playing a role in that. As well, models are hinting at the MJO trekking its way into phases 2-3 near mid-December which translates to a warmer pattern for us. Going to have to see if the upcoming -NAO/AO can hold on a bit longer. In recent years, Atlantic blocking has been abysmal so it wouldn't surprise me if it breaks down quickly. 

Regardless, the cooler anomalies in the first week of December won't be anything insane. Without proper blocking, it'll most likely be transient cold. 

Isnt this a neutral enso?

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Locally it is true since the late 70s. snowy November has equaled a less snowy December since the late 70s locally. Before than it is more mixed.

The result still seemed mix, but since 2014 snowy November's have overwhelmingly meant less no in December lol.  Even if it happens again this year, I refuse to believe it's anything more than coincidence considering the longer term trends, or should I say lack thereof. Regardless, as we all know December is only the beginning of Winter, but it's always nice to have snowy scenes around the holidays

[Chicago Storm]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What time frame? Hopefully past mid month towards christmas turns wintry again.

ENS would suggest that at least the first week of December will likely be a lost cause for the most part, if trends are correct. They do show some of the same heading into week 2...However, I wouldn't put too much stock into anything that far out.

The MJO entering the COD in a cold phase recently will likely help keep us from all out torching for now. It should be noted though that guidance wants to push the MJO out of the COD, and into "warmer" phases 2 and 3 during the first week of December. If that happens and teleconnections are in the vicinity of whats currently shown, then maybe a torch-y period could be a real possibility.

Also...Some bad news...The ECMWF weeklies are a torch from ~Dec. 20-Jan. 10th (end of run).

[UMB WX]

A week ago the back yard pond was covered in 3" of ice. Now the weeklies say santa claus comes in on water ski's. 

 

[RogueWaves]

SSW gone wrong, sigh..

[Hoosier]

Warm holidays are the worst.  Thankfully the Euro weeklies are pretty hit or miss that far out. 

[UMB WX]

For some reason I feel pretty good about  our chances in the sub for wintry threats  as we head towards Christmas. Our Dec track record of late isn't stellar though.

[Hoosier]

Lock it in, folks.  Lock it in.

[Gino27]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Lock it in, folks.  Lock it in.

Haha! It's probably in fantasy land. BUT, the Euro had a similar output and there's been some talk of cold around the 10th so it might be hinting at something.

[buckeye]

So wxbell revised their winter forecast to go slightly colder in Dec and significantly colder in Feb.   Main reasoning is an almost exact match to 2013/14, (I can literally hear the drool hitting the floor in here), and  2002/03 SST.    Of course the chaos factor always seems to b*tch slap down even the best matching analogs.  

Winter forecasts are all over the place this year.  Usually you have a common thread with a few outliers, but this year I've seen forecasts that are total opposites of each other, (especially in month to month breakdowns).   Should be interesting to see the winners and losers come April.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Winter forecasts are all over the place this year.  Usually you have a common thread with a few outliers, but this year I've seen forecasts that are total opposites of each other, (especially in month to month breakdowns).   Should be interesting to see the winners and losers come April.

I think this may be due to not having a stronger ENSO signal.  When it's a stronger Nino or Nina, people can sort of play the odds.  Hanging around neutral is a different ball game.   

[Gino27]

 

 

Not sure if anyone around here is involved over on 33 and rain, but there's been a decent amount of talk about the standing wave not allowing the MJO enter warmer stages. Even a few are saying it could jump to p8 in the very long range. So, with some decent blocking the 2nd half of Dec could be lots of fun.

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, Gino27 said:

 

 

Not sure if anyone around here is involved over on 33 and rain, but there's been a decent amount of talk about the standing wave not allowing the MJO enter warmer stages. Even a few are saying it could jump to p8 in the very long range. So, with some decent blocking the 2nd half of Dec could be lots of fun.

Phases 2 and 3 are warmer phases in December. Phase 3 has the highest significant for a larger portion of the region.

ENS teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO, would suggest a fairly unfavorable pattern through the 20th. That's not to say it won't snow at all, but things will be unfavorable for anything decent unless we thread the needle. Average/mild conditions will likely persist as well during that time.