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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

18z GFS has a nice 6-10" snowstorm all along the I-80 corridor from Iowa to northern Ohio about 300hrs out.  One more model run and I say let's start a thread.

It will get cancelled due to coronavirus.

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14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Thunderless rain this time of the year is pretty lame.  Maybe April will provide us with a little thunder.

The Euro shows a zone of 500+ j/kg MUCAPE getting into northern IL and far southern MI Thursday night.  The mid-level lapse rates will be getting steeper and freezing level lowering due to the upper low nosing in, so even less that 500 j/kg could produce some low-topped storms.  The lightning will be in a diminishing trend as the system moves north, but there will probably be a few rumbles everywhere along and south of I-94.  It will be a super tight temperature gradient so Wisconsin might get snow while Illinois gets thunder.

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5 hours ago, frostfern said:

The Euro shows a zone of 500+ j/kg MUCAPE getting into northern IL and far southern MI Thursday night.  The mid-level lapse rates will be getting steeper and freezing level lowering due to the upper low nosing in, so even less that 500 j/kg could produce some low-topped storms.  The lightning will be in a diminishing trend as the system moves north, but there will probably be a few rumbles everywhere along and south of I-94.  It will be a super tight temperature gradient so Wisconsin might get snow while Illinois gets thunder.

What else is new? Except when Illinois gets early/late season snow while we're dry, lol.

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9 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

What else is new? Except when Illinois gets early/late season snow while we're dry, lol.

Grand Rapids is normally somewhat of a snowbelt, but every single synoptic snow was a fringe event with heavy totals missing either north or south.  Cold snaps were also short and dry with little or no lake effect.  Most boring winter ever.  Next system will be between the thunder and the snow.  Cold rain.  How exciting.  Boring weather is good for virus spreading though apparently. :(

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