Malacka11 Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 10 minutes ago, mimillman said: It will trend to a southern sheared our mess like the GFS and Canadian eventually No, not this time I can feel it in my bones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: No, not this time I can feel it in my bones 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 9 hours ago, Malacka11 said: Pretty good hit for Chicagoland on the 12z Euro. Please, whoever makes the storm thread, don't jinx it. Already a notable shift south from the previous 0Z run which had a big dog for S. WI. I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 8, 2020 Share Posted February 8, 2020 Euro and Canuk showing some legit arctic air setting in for a couple days late next week/weekend. If it happens and we can get a system come through to tap into it Biloxi will probably get a foot 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 Haters gonna hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 Just now, Malacka11 said: Haters gonna hate Trending toward the more northerly solution that the Euro has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 glad I checked in. Let's get this done, and I'll take the early spring. Euro stays on course...who starts the thread? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 After hemming and hawing for several days due to model variability...SPC went ahead and dropped a big old Day 4 30% for Dixie Alley...and it wasn't Broyles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 35 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: After hemming and hawing for several days due to model variability...SPC went ahead and dropped a big old Day 4 30% for Dixie Alley...and it wasn't Broyles! huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 THE ECMWF SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS THREAT, WHICH CONTINUED ON THE 00Z CYCLE, INCLUDING GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. PREVIOUS HOLDOUT GFS SUITE TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE 00Z CYCLE. THE MEAN SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES BRINGS ITS BROAD SNOW SWATH OVER THE CWA, WITH THIS LIKELY BEING FROM A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AREA BASED ON THE GENERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT. ....LOT AM AFD on the potential. If 12Z holds might be thread time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 19 hours ago, mimillman said: It will trend to a southern sheared our mess like the GFS and Canadian eventually 6Z Euro took a step SE towards that. Ukie lines up further SE along with GEM and GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 9, 2020 Share Posted February 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Baum said: huh? You have to adjust for the Chris Broyles hype factor in any convective outlook he does. He has a history of being enthusiastically over-bullish on severe/tornado potential (he tends to forecast for the worst-case scenario within the model spread, instead of a blend/the most probable). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/8/2020 at 12:07 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Do solar mins lead to less PV disruptions? The research I've read (and that people generally trumpet) is that at the least, solar mins generally lead to weaker PV's...however, I haven't read any research actually linking mid-winter disruptions/hits to the PV, and there is some research suggesting that there is a lag, IE your greatest affects are felt just after the solar min (which would be the next couple of winters). Certain things argued for a weaker PV this year or tried to argue for it...usually, a warmer ENSO argues for it, but a warm Indian Ocean weakens the signal, and the warm ENSO was central Pacific based (weaker signal) and was not really strong enough to classify as even a weak El Nino (another weaker signal). Usually, a dropping QBO also argues for one, but I think it dropped just a bit too late to be helpful this winter. I do find it interesting that multiple signals pre-season suggesting a weaker stratospheric PV were just off, and allowed for this beast. If I had to scapegoat, I'd use the borderline record positive Indian Ocean Dipole, as that supported an unfavorable Asian-Pacific jet stream for polar vortex disruptions in the falll/early winter. I'm a little irritated that I sort of overlooked the Indian Ocean's influence on this winter (or hoped it would weaken quickly enough to avoid disaster). 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 Thinking as EPO goes+++ things should start kicking in synoptically for weatherbo again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 11, 2020 Share Posted February 11, 2020 My money is on the death of "The Blob", leading to the flip of warmth this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I f***ing knew it... we knew this was coming. Just in time for March when we finally look to Spring and want to put this garbage winter behind us. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 14 minutes ago, buckeye said: I f***ing knew it... we knew this was coming. Just in time for March when we finally look to Spring and want to put this garbage winter behind us. Seems to never fail. Hopefully it’s wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 the let down on deck 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 euro showing a big dog at that range used to be worth something, sad 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Well with the weaker south trends this year maybe the GFS and CMC will come south into what the Euro just showed.. (Wishful thinking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 For the lolz. Totals are actually higher, but had to do 24hr total to lose current storm contamination. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Let's do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 Is this bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 March is gonna rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 GFS for some runs now has been showing quite a potent storm for the Midwest coming up the MS valley as we approach Ash Wed. Feb. 26 . Will have to watch and see how this develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2020 Share Posted February 15, 2020 bowling season.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 anybody going to start a thread for the February 27-28 blockbuster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 5 hours ago, Baum said: anybody going to start a thread for the February 27-28 blockbuster? Meh someone from International Falls can start it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 10 hours ago, Baum said: anybody going to start a thread for the February 27-28 blockbuster? Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 12 hours ago, Baum said: anybody going to start a thread for the February 27-28 blockbuster? @Chicago Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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