cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 GFS and the Euro continue to indicate some sort of threat around the 4-5th. About the only thing to watch so hopefully the threat continues as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 hours ago, hlcater said: Rainer Always interesting to see how repetitive storm tracks and patterns can be. Our area will be wet but close to rain /snow line again like many systems this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 35 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Always interesting to see how repetitive storm tracks and patterns can be. Our area will be wet but close to rain /snow line again like many systems this winter. 2 true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 0z Euro trolling the east part of the sub. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I'm going to code my own model running an algorithm that inputs data from keywords from our sub forum. I bet it's clown maps would be as accurate run to run as these sooper compooters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I like the way the extended looks for storminess around the Lakes for Feb. Buckle up and lets see what happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I like the way the extended looks for storminess around the Lakes for Feb. Buckle up and lets see what happens. Agree on the active look. The MJO trends indicate a likelihood of a -PNA and southeast ridging, also supported by the ens mean height anomalies. So hopefully we can get the -EPO that has been advertised in the medium-long range to keep the northern half or so of the sub on the good side of the thermal gradient. If it becomes yet another phantom -EPO, the background pattern would argue for a warmer risk, but still active and maybe enough cold air depending on storm track for parts of the northwestern sub to benefit. One thing is for sure, the AO and NAO will remain raging positive for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 After heading into mid-to-late February.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Agree on the active look. The MJO trends indicate a likelihood of a -PNA and southeast ridging, also supported by the ens mean height anomalies. So hopefully we can get the -EPO that has been advertised in the medium-long range to keep the northern half or so of the sub on the good side of the thermal gradient. If it becomes yet another phantom -EPO, the background pattern would argue for a warmer risk, but still active and maybe enough cold air depending on storm track for parts of the northwestern sub to benefit. One thing is for sure, the AO and NAO will remain raging positive for the foreseeable future. Hopefully the epo pans out. I mean even if it doesnt, a storm can track nw and still bring heavy snow, i only have to look back to Jan 19 to see that. But if it pans out i love the look. No -nao would keep otherwise suppression in check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 57 minutes ago, Spartman said: After heading into mid-to-late February.... Lol what does this mean? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Gradient pattern really setting up on the GFS for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Gradient pattern really setting up on the GFS for a bitECMWF ensemble took a small step back with 00z run last night but today's 12z run went back to a nice west based -EPO with southeast ridging setting up that gradient pattern you mentioned. The run total mean and member snowfall outputs from both EPS and GEFS are really impressive (and something we haven't seen since last winter) and strongly suggestive of the active wintry pattern that could set up starting with whatever happens Tuesday onward through mid February. Definitely shades of Feb 2019 in the medium to long range on the ensembles. If we can keep the storm track a bit more muted than last year, then more of us could cash in than last year when it was mostly IA, WI, MN and northern MI that were hammered, while we dealt with mixing issues and several icing events in northern IL, IN and southern MI. Need to see that -EPO lock in as we get closer to feel more confident moving forward. Saw on another board that OHweather's company is going with AN snowfall for Feb for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, so hopefully he chimes in here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 9:27 AM, A-L-E-K said: Extended actually looks ok, some cold and potential for systems with some stones Looking $$$ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: ECMWF ensemble took a small step back with 00z run last night but today's 12z run went back to a nice west based -EPO with southeast ridging setting up that gradient pattern you mentioned. The run total mean and member snowfall outputs from both EPS and GEFS are really impressive (and something we haven't seen since last winter) and strongly suggestive of the active wintry pattern that could set up starting with whatever happens Tuesday onward through mid February. Definitely shades of Feb 2019 in the medium to long range on the ensembles. If we can keep the storm track a bit more muted than last year, then more of us could cash in than last year when it was mostly IA, WI, MN and northern MI that were hammered, while we dealt with mixing issues and several icing events in northern IL, IN and southern MI. Need to see that -EPO lock in as we get closer to feel more confident moving forward. Saw on another board that OHweather's company is going with AN snowfall for Feb for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, so hopefully he chimes in here. We should be in the game in this type of regime. Just hoping it's a snowier outcome locally than last February which was very ordinary in that regard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 47 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: ECMWF ensemble took a small step back with 00z run last night but today's 12z run went back to a nice west based -EPO with southeast ridging setting up that gradient pattern you mentioned. The run total mean and member snowfall outputs from both EPS and GEFS are really impressive (and something we haven't seen since last winter) and strongly suggestive of the active wintry pattern that could set up starting with whatever happens Tuesday onward through mid February. Definitely shades of Feb 2019 in the medium to long range on the ensembles. If we can keep the storm track a bit more muted than last year, then more of us could cash in than last year when it was mostly IA, WI, MN and northern MI that were hammered, while we dealt with mixing issues and several icing events in northern IL, IN and southern MI. Need to see that -EPO lock in as we get closer to feel more confident moving forward. Saw on another board that OHweather's company is going with AN snowfall for Feb for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, so hopefully he chimes in here. Sounds good. Fingers crossed!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: We should be in the game in this type of regime. Just hoping it's a snowier outcome locally than last February which was very ordinary in that regard. Wasn't a fan of last Feb's flavor around here, always being "just SE" of the good stuff. Nonetheless, ended up at 128% of normal when it was a wrap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: ECMWF ensemble took a small step back with 00z run last night but today's 12z run went back to a nice west based -EPO with southeast ridging setting up that gradient pattern you mentioned. The run total mean and member snowfall outputs from both EPS and GEFS are really impressive (and something we haven't seen since last winter) and strongly suggestive of the active wintry pattern that could set up starting with whatever happens Tuesday onward through mid February. Definitely shades of Feb 2019 in the medium to long range on the ensembles. If we can keep the storm track a bit more muted than last year, then more of us could cash in than last year when it was mostly IA, WI, MN and northern MI that were hammered, while we dealt with mixing issues and several icing events in northern IL, IN and southern MI. Need to see that -EPO lock in as we get closer to feel more confident moving forward. Saw on another board that OHweather's company is going with AN snowfall for Feb for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, so hopefully he chimes in here. A repeat of last February would be pretty nice to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 We should be in the game in this type of regime. Just hoping it's a snowier outcome locally than last February which was very ordinary in that regard. Certainly too far out still to feel comfortable but I like that the EPS hasn't lost the general look it's shown over the past several days, which continued with the 00z run tonight. The EPS has definitely performed the best out of the ensembles this winter, so that alone gives a reason for cautious optimism. We're going to have well above normal temperatures for DJF no matter what but the bottom line is getting a good region wide event and hopefully more than 1 to help salvage the season. We can do that if the pattern look that's been shown doesn't trend substantially worse and things break right on the evolution of individual synoptic waves. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Looks interesting. Certainly a few storms upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 NOAA indicating an early taste of spring for the Eastern half of the country possibly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 13 minutes ago, WI_SNOWSTORM said: NOAA indicating an early taste of spring for the Eastern half of the country possibly. Cue Josh optimistically stating that March is going to rock. EDIT: They also forgot that this is a leap year. February 29th is going to rock. Either that, or it will be an extra day of a miserable winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 19 hours ago, Geoboy645 said: A repeat of last February would be pretty nice to say the least. 39" IMBY Feb 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 56 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Cue Josh optimistically stating that March is going to rock. EDIT: They also forgot that this is a leap year. February 29th is going to rock. Either that, or it will be an extra day of a miserable winter. 2/29 will have the craziest weather in at least the past 4 years. 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Cue Josh optimistically stating that March is going to rock. EDIT: They also forgot that this is a leap year. February 29th is going to rock. Either that, or it will be an extra day of a miserable winter. Actually i hate that phrase lol. But anyway, March is the last thing on my mind with an active look to February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I don't think I've ever seen this much consistent inconsistency in the models in winter over the conus in my short years following. 1 or 2 hundred miles on tracks this far out, sure. But we've been seeing 3 to 5 hundred mile to shredded nothingness this winter. I know in the tropics models always struggle with weak systems and with weak steering. There really hasn't been strong ridges and strong lows this season and hardly any deep arctic air dropping down, for a lot of reasons that have been posted, and the baroclinic zone has been very low this winter IMO . I wonder if this is causing the problem with the models across the conus. With such a consistent weak split flow across the conus, as fine a resolution as some have (and that is totally subjective) it's just not fine enough to whittle out the details and/or how much climo is influencing some of them (I'm not sure how much climo data they put weight on). Regardless, if this keeps up, I think this may be one of the worse model verification winters in a long time because damn near none of them have verified, especially in our area, for snowfall, or QPF for that matter, outside 24 hours. They're not even verifying that well in the mountains out to the W/NW where it should be close to cut and dry. The mountains in BC should have about 800 inches of snow by now lol. Just my armchair 2 cents but something is really strange this winter model wise. Maybe it will snap back late and cover some of the models butts, however, as has been posted, the long range models don't look that good. But then again 2 months ago the long range looked better than it is right now. If this pans out this may be a winter to study the complete failure IMO of the "new and improved" models across the board. I'll wait for someone smarter than me (which are many) and read the book. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Henry Margusity tweeted earlier that winter will be active for the next 2-3 weeks, and then an early spring this year. I’m down for that. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 For several days, the GFS has been hinting at a potential system as we approach mid month. The Euro is finally catching on. This morning's run has a widespread snow-to-mix overrunning event, not unlike the one we experienced a couple weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 23 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: For several days, the GFS has been hinting at a potential system as we approach mid month. The Euro is finally catching on. This morning's run has a widespread snow-to-mix overrunning event, not unlike the one we experienced a couple weeks ago. Usual caveat about models out around day 10 but that looks to have potential. Nice return flow and the western troughing is in no hurry to move east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 this is our moment 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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