SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: next rainer on tap for the 4th/5th Totes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 we need ALEK to start a thread!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 What the GFS is showing this morning will probably vanish on future runs. It feels like a flukey run. Models are generally just showing a strong cold front sweeping through the midwest. This is the first model run that shows a flattening of the fropa with a nice wave or two riding along the front. I'd have to see more models doing this, and stick with it, before I'd get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: What the GFS is showing this morning will probably vanish on future runs. It feels like a flukey run. Models are generally just showing a strong cold front sweeping through the midwest. This is the first model run that shows a flattening of the fropa with a nice wave or two riding along the front. I'd have to see more models doing this, and stick with it, before I'd get excited. gonna bust^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: What the GFS is showing this morning will probably vanish on future runs. It feels like a flukey run. Models are generally just showing a strong cold front sweeping through the midwest. This is the first model run that shows a flattening of the fropa with a nice wave or two riding along the front. I'd have to see more models doing this, and stick with it, before I'd get excited. The ensembles have been very active afterwards, and now the gfs shows a big storm in 2 wks. Its so far out but its interesting to note how active the ensembles are. Thats as good a sign as you could ask for this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The ensembles have been very active afterwards, and now the gfs shows a big storm in 2 wks. Its so far out but its interesting to note how active the ensembles are. Thats as good a sign as you could ask for this far out. Ensembles wrt to snow in the long range are laughable. The euro ens has frequently shown us in the 6-12" digital swath in the 10 -15 day period since December. Even if they were only 10% correct I'd be sitting at more than 20" for the season. On the bright side the epo looks to go slightly negative after the 5th.... but that's about all I can see on the good side. The AO is strongly positive as far as the eye can see and the MJO looks to exit the COD into 4 or 5 according to the euro. Obviously you guys have a much better chance of being on the good side of a boundary then we do. All in all still looks like a garabage pattern with scattered teases here and there. Probably get a really cold pattern just in time for spring fever....so what else is new. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 9:27 AM, A-L-E-K said: Extended actually looks ok, some cold and potential for systems with some stones rainers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 next rainer on tap for the 4th/5thYep.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Nice -EPO block with the PV parked up near Hudson Bay on the GFS. Whether that holds true, it remains to be seen. I'm still not sold out on the idea of any sustained cold for our region thru mid-Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 34 minutes ago, buckeye said: Ensembles wrt to snow in the long range are laughable. The euro ens has frequently shown us in the 6-12" digital swath in the 10 -15 day period since December. Even if they were only 10% correct I'd be sitting at more than 20" for the season. On the bright side the epo looks to go slightly negative after the 5th.... but that's about all I can see on the good side. The AO is strongly positive as far as the eye can see and the MJO looks to exit the COD into 4 or 5 according to the euro. Obviously you guys have a much better chance of being on the good side of a boundary then we do. All in all still looks like a garabage pattern with scattered teases here and there. Probably get a really cold pattern just in time for spring fever....so what else is new. I agree about digital snow maps. I was referring to looping the 24 hr precip on the gefs on tidbits. Its consistently shown a lot of precip in that timeframe, usually its a lot of widespread light qpf that far out. Im not counting on anything, just pointing out the interesting snow maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 1:56 PM, buckeye said: ...one of these days you're gonna snap. A diet of denial and sugar-coated turds, (ie halloween snow storms and blackened snow piles in parking lots), can only sustain you for so long.... It will be epic when it finally happens On 1/26/2020 at 5:27 PM, michsnowfreak said: Sounds good. I work from home that whole week and then I'm going to the UP the next week for 4 days. His insurance policy against winter insanity! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, RogueWaves said: His insurance policy against winter insanity! I go every year, except 2014 and 2015 bc when you have feet of snow in your own yard, enjoy lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I go every year, except 2014 and 2015 bc when you have feet of snow in your own yard, enjoy lol. So that explains why you're so optimistic despite the lacklustre weather pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: So that explains why you're so optimistic despite the lacklustre weather pattern. Its invigorating being outdoors in deep winter. I have taken a snow trip north annually, since 2007, with the above mentioned exceptions of 2014 and 2015. I love going up there (to visit, not live lol). Also, in more "open" winters like this one, i take advantage of those pristine winter days and go out and enjoy. I fully understand those south of i80 have more right to complain, but for those of us who have had some nice winter days, why some people choose to sit at home lamenting the continued crud pattern on models and staring at a computer screen wondering how quickly the snow will melt....rather than go out and enjoy the winter wonderland right out their window...ill never understand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I go every year, except 2014 and 2015 bc when you have feet of snow in your own yard, enjoy lol. It's funny but snow somewhere else, (like when some people chase), does nothing for my weenie fix. If it's not in my back yard I don't care, unless I'm on ski trip or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Its invigorating being outdoors in deep winter. I have taken a snow trip north annually, since 2007, with the above mentioned exceptions of 2014 and 2015. I love going up there (to visit, not live lol). Also, in more "open" winters like this one, i take advantage of those pristine winter days and go out and enjoy. I fully understand those south of i80 have more right to complain, but for those of us who have had some nice winter days, why some people choose to sit at home lamenting the continued crud pattern on models and staring at a computer screen wondering how quickly the snow will melt....rather than go out and enjoy the winter wonderland right out their window...ill never understand. Fair point. A lot of people stay trapped indoors through-out the winter season instead of trying to enjoy it as you mentioned. I'm planning on going up north in a week or two to go snowmobiling (for the first time). Gotta make the best out of every season. Hoping we see more sustained cold and snow next season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 27 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Nice -EPO block with the PV parked up near Hudson Bay on the GFS. Whether that holds true, it remains to be seen. I'm still not sold out on the idea of any sustained cold for our region thru mid-Feb. GFS and GEFS have been horrific with handling the EPO since November. I'd toss whatever they show in that regard. Edit: GEFS actually continue a +EPO, similar to the EPS. Toss the OP GFS and that well -EPO it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: GFS and GEFS have been horrific with handling the EPO since November. I'd toss whatever they show in that regard. Edit: GEFS actually continue a +EPO, similar to the EPS. Toss the OP GFS and that well -EPO it shows. I agree, they've been horrible. What about the weeklies or EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 24 minutes ago, buckeye said: It's funny but snow somewhere else, (like when some people chase), does nothing for my weenie fix. If it's not in my back yard I don't care, unless I'm on ski trip or something. I love northern Michigan, and I try to go up there several times a year. Its not so much snow chase thing as I am just going to enjoy the deep snow outdoors. Whether snow is falling or not is irrelevant, though obviously show falling is preferred. Actually it's kind of funny, almost every year until last year, it hardly ever snows when I'm up there lol. Tons on the ground, but no snow falling. Obviously, I get the backyard thing, we are all that way to a certain extent. I am worried about my backyard and I also I'm a big time stat guy so I love comparing what's going on locally to past years. You have to remember when I simply state how much snow is fallen this year, or that we are around average, that is not to say I am enjoying this Winter. I would gladly take less snow in total for more snow cover and cold. That is just my preference. But the scenes that we had here in early to mid November were unprecedented with the deep powder on the ground, heck even this past week was concrete, so it all adds into things. I've never seen a Winter behave the way this one has so far, so I have no idea what to expect the rest of the way. We had a winter in the mid 80s when I was too young to remember where we racked up around 55" of snow without a single warning criteria event, complete with snow depths around a foot in February. I would take that in a heartbeat. It sounds crazy to say that we've already had 2 warning criteria snowstorms at the midway point but this Winter feels so frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 As I mentioned nearly 2 weeks ago, a pattern that featured more cold/snow chances than we seen all winter would be possible/likely to continue, which it has...and it looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. The +EPO/+AO/+NAO regime has continued, though an overall toned down version compared to what it once was was. However, as was also mentioned in my last post, EPS was trending towards a bigger +EPO spike for a time, which has come to fruition. We are in that period now, which has been one thing that has aided in the mild/stagnant kind of temp pattern were are in right now, and may lead to the brief spike of even warmer temps this weekend/early next week. The continued good news is that EPS is in good agreement on having the +EPO relax once again after this current spike, favoring in the vicinity of neutral/or near neutral +/-. The +AO will likely continue, but there are signs the NAO will also favor the vicinity of neutral or so. After a trip into positive territory for a while, the PNA is also expected to return to neutral/low end negative, which should also help things a bit. Teleconnections will still not be amazing and only so-so, the PV will be of no help yet, and the MJO will still be unfavorable...The pattern for the foreseeable future still does not scream big turn around or sustained winter, but it will continue to be enough to bring continued cold shot potential and snow chance potential, though the lack of a -EPO will keep any cold in check. The bad news is that as was seen with the past three storm systems, it'll be a cluster****. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 34 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I agree, they've been horrible. What about the weeklies or EPS? Weeklies want to have a big cold push or two coming up in the first 1-2 weeks of Feb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 cluster**** should be in part of our next storm thread title. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, buckeye said: Ensembles wrt to snow in the long range are laughable. The euro ens has frequently shown us in the 6-12" digital swath in the 10 -15 day period since December. Even if they were only 10% correct I'd be sitting at more than 20" for the season. On the bright side the epo looks to go slightly negative after the 5th.... but that's about all I can see on the good side. The AO is strongly positive as far as the eye can see and the MJO looks to exit the COD into 4 or 5 according to the euro. Obviously you guys have a much better chance of being on the good side of a boundary then we do. All in all still looks like a garabage pattern with scattered teases here and there. Probably get a really cold pattern just in time for spring fever....so what else is new. I'd agree with that. Better chances should be n/w of the Ohio Valley for a while. Wondering if there will finally be a big enough snow here in February to cover the grass tips for the first time this winter. Think it has to happen at some point as the pattern looks less torchy overall and not devoid of action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Baum said: cluster**** should be in part of our next storm thread title. That's if there's a storm worthy of a thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: That's if there's a storm worthy of a thread. always happens eventually...in fact, had a storm / event thread each of the past 2 weeks.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I'd agree with that. Better chances should be n/w of the Ohio Valley for a while. Wondering if there will finally be a big enough snow here in February to cover the grass tips for the first time this winter. Think it has to happen at some point as the pattern looks less torchy overall and not devoid of action. Oh my...youve not yet had the tips covered!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Oh my...youve not yet had the tips covered!? Nope. As I've mentioned before, still waiting on a 3" snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 ^ Such great song writing but such horrible synth drums of that era. Some of us are fine with rain in January and Feb. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 46 minutes ago, bowtie` said: ^ Such great song writing but such horrible synth drums of that era. Some of us are fine with rain in January and Feb. Bring it! gate for dayz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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