A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 AGW, it happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 hours ago, mimillman said: Bad stretch, it happens Agree. Also, if anything our winters are getting longer because we seem to be getting earlier and later snowfalls now, regardless of what happens in between. A longer Winter is not necessarily a better Winter, and vice versa, as obviously the meat of Winter is what is most important. 2015-16 and 2016-17 were back-to-back warm winters (though we surprisingly managed to do OK with snowfall), which followed back-to-back brutally cold winters in 2013-14 and 14-15. 2013-14 was the most severe Winter on record here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 AGW, it happensMeh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 GFS has been showing a major ice storm for eastern Iowa for next Wednesday since the 18z run yesterday. Rates don't appear to be heavy but with the duration (over 24 hours) the ice accretion would easily exceed an inch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Agree. Also, if anything our winters are getting longer because we seem to be getting earlier and later snowfalls now, regardless of what happens in between. A longer Winter is not necessarily a better Winter, and vice versa, as obviously the meat of Winter is what is most important. 2015-16 and 2016-17 were back-to-back warm winters (though we surprisingly managed to do OK with snowfall), which followed back-to-back brutally cold winters in 2013-14 and 14-15. 2013-14 was the most severe Winter on record here. 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 both made the top 10 warmest winters on record at Dayton. 2015-2016 had a snowfall total of 12.7 inches while 2016-2017 was the most recent single-digit snowfall season with only 8.5 inches. March 2016 almost made it to one of the top 10 warmest Marches on record while March 2017 ended slightly warmer than normal, despite a prolonged cold period in the 2/3 of March. The coldest low temperature so far (and will likely be for) this season was 5 degrees back on November 13th with the second coldest low of 8 degrees on December 19th. It is still currently a lock that we'll still have single-digit snowfall totals after we begin February. Could be one of those years that we may not really have to pay for it as much in March and/or April. #springiscoming #twentyhundredandburnttoacrisp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, Spartman said: 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 both made the top 10 warmest winters on record at Dayton. 2015-2016 had a snowfall total of 12.7 inches while 2016-2017 was the most recent single-digit snowfall season with only 8.5 inches. March 2016 almost made it to one of the top 10 warmest Marches on record while March 2017 ended slightly warmer than normal, despite a prolonged cold period in the 2/3 of March. The coldest low temperature so far (and will likely be for) this season was 8 degrees back on December 19th. It is still currently a lock that we'll still have single-digit snowfall totals after we begin February. Could be one of those years that we may not really have to pay for it as much in March and/or April. #springiscoming #twentyhundredandburnttoacrisp You may start feb in single digits for snow. But dont count on your lowest temp already having been set. Probably another late spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 hours ago, Spartman said: 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 both made the top 10 warmest winters on record at Dayton. 2015-2016 had a snowfall total of 12.7 inches while 2016-2017 was the most recent single-digit snowfall season with only 8.5 inches. March 2016 almost made it to one of the top 10 warmest Marches on record while March 2017 ended slightly warmer than normal, despite a prolonged cold period in the 2/3 of March. The coldest low temperature so far (and will likely be for) this season was 5 degrees back on November 13th with the second coldest low of 8 degrees on December 19th. It is still currently a lock that we'll still have single-digit snowfall totals after we begin February. Could be one of those years that we may not really have to pay for it as much in March and/or April. #springiscoming #twentyhundredandburnttoacrisp Winters that have single-digit snowfall at the end of January are VERY unlikely to end up even close to normal. It's only happened a few times, and none of those were as warm as this winter has been. In Columbus, there have been 50 winters where snowfall was in the single digits through January 31st. Of those 50, just 4 had enough snowfall the rest of the winter to reach or exceed normal. 2019-20 is almost guaranteed to end up well below normal. The average snowfall of those 50 is almost 13" below normal. The story is similar for Dayton. February-March would have to be epic, and that seems unlikely at this point. The winters in reference are 1905-1906, which had one of the snowiest Aprils on record, 1959-1960, which had a fantastic late February and March, 1970-1971 which had a rare 9" snow in February and 1992-1993, which benefitted some from the Blizzard of 93. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Does snowstormcanuck post here anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Does snowstormcanuck post here anymore? I've seen one post from him this winter, so he does still occasionally check in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, IWXwx said: I've seen one post from him this winter, so he does still occasionally check in. I think I remember seeing a post from him awhile back saying he was going somewhere tropical on vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 ^^Canuck is chilling in Aruba I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm? Gotta turn on the south trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 49 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm? Rainer. I learn from the best. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 54 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm? Euro throwing you a bone with a nice snowstorm. GFS says It's an ALEK special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 As expected, mid-month has brought a pattern change, which started with our crap-tastic storm system last weekend. Increased chances for snow and cold are possible/likely for the foreseeable future, compared to what we have seen thus far this winter. However, I am not as gung-ho as others regarding a sustained winter period for the next several weeks. While the AO/NAO/EPO have been trending down, from being well positive to being in the vicinity of neutral to low end positive for the near future and extended, no serious dip into negative territory looks likely. (There has actually been a trend among ensembles to bring back a well positive EPO, but I'm not fully on-board with that for now.) Additionally, the deep -PNA that we've been in and needed to continue is expected to end, with it likely heading to around neutral to low end positive. Additionally, the MJO has been rolling through deep phases 4-5 and now 6. There is high agreement in rolling through phase 6-7, and then looping back into the COD, before exiting once again into warmer phases most likely. I do think there is some chance we do clip phase 8 for a short time, though. Add in that the main PV will be in an unfavorable area for the period, only smaller/brief lobes may quickly slide through nearby. Thinking we see continued/additional shots of cold/snow potential, definitely more-so than we've seen thus far this winter, which is fairly easy to attain. However, I definitely don't foresee any sustained/long period of cold/snows, with several mild periods/rainers still mixed in...just perhaps not AS mild as they have been. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: So, everyone ready to dive in to the late week/weekend storm? With nothing but a possible dab the next 10 days around here on the models (except for the Canuk ), this January has the potential to be pretty much snowless here except for a couple dustings. If that pans out then I'll be looking for a Feb. early March big dog to bookend us the other 2/3rds to our average. Still learning the teleconection stuff but there were several really strong TC's in the WPAC late this year and am just curious if they just pumped extra heat into the northern latitudes and into the Pacific jet and how that influences the PV behavior. At least it doesn't look like the deep freeze is setting in over the next couple weeks. I might start to lose it if we start getting 1050-60 Canadian ridges suppressing the storm track south or east. Current pattern sucks but has a better chance for something as opposed to a deep cold snowless depre ..er..suppression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 tru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 In this crappy winter the next chance of snow via 12z EURO at 168 hrs (fantasy land). We need Thundersnow to start a topic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Go ahead and pencil in a rainer for next weekend system, let’s follow the trend of weekend flood advisories. Euro ensembles agree as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 4 hours ago, ILSNOW said: In this crappy winter the next chance of snow via 12z EURO at 168 hrs (fantasy land). We need Thundersnow to start a topic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Trendz... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Comical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Comical... I'd assume its correlated with the MJO moving through phases 4-5-6? We'll see if that changes come mid-Feb, but for now we won't be seeing cold outbreaks anytime soon. The AO/NAO are + too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 5/8 days with mixed precipitation for sw MI, in late January. Winter ‘19-‘20 is broken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 The ensembles have once again returned to a colder pattern beginning in early Feb. Lets see if this time sticks. I do like how it looks to remain active, might as well try and luck into another nice snowstorm lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The ensembles have once again returned to a colder pattern beginning in early Feb. Lets see if this time sticks. I do like how it looks to remain active, might as well try and luck into another nice snowstorm lol. good luck...it's gonna take quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Weird how the MJO completely stops progressing and dives into the COD. No gradual diminishing of the forward motion just a complete stop and almost a retrogression as it does fade to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, buckeye said: good luck...it's gonna take quite a bit Im not the best with indicies...all i know is if it remains active in the dead of winter and there's no torch (which there is not), can easily have more snow fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, michsnowfreak said: Im not the best with indicies...all i know is if it remains active in the dead of winter and there's no torch (which there is not), can easily have more snow fun. Nothing's impossible, especially with the luck you guys have had, but it's really hard to get anything good out of those charts. My years of watching this stuff has shown me that when the models are showing an outcome that flies in the face of the indices, almost always the correction ends up on the side of the models, (see current storm). Then again the indices can change quickly too....but they've been stuck on hot mess mode most of the winter so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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