Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Well, in theory that could put the sub in a battle zone of sorts.  Hopefully we won't be taking loss after loss with storms always cutting too far west lol

 

54 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Sounds like a La Nina pattern.

Yes to both posts 

[buckeye]

At this point the only fun thing to look forward to is the impending JB video meltdown.  Already started to sound crazed in his vid a couple days ago,  "this doesn't make sense...I don't understand...I think the models are missing something..."

Wxbell changed their winter forecast a few weeks ago to go even colder in December thru Feb...

[Chicago Storm]

At this point the only fun thing to look forward to is the impending JB video meltdown.  Already started to sound crazed in his vid a couple days ago,  "this doesn't make sense...I don't understand...I think the models are missing something..."
Wxbell changed their winter forecast a few weeks ago to go even colder in December thru Feb...

All of the so called “guru’s” have failed this far. Not saying he’s one per say, but will lump him in given he’s almost always talking cold for somewhere.


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[buckeye]

13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

All of the so called “guru’s” have failed this far. Not saying he’s one per say, but will lump him in given he’s almost always talking cold for somewhere.


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I think Don S. and Isotherm are looking the best so far that I've seen....granted it's very early so it's still any forecaster's game.     Roger Smith, OTOH......he was touting an early winter thru December (for the east), turning around on New Year's.   

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Well, in theory that could put the sub in a battle zone of sorts.  Hopefully we won't be taking loss after loss with storms always cutting too far west lol

 Once we get this weekend out of the way, I'd sure there will be plenty more chances. Near to slightly above average temperatures in January and February are more than enough for lots of snow. The issue, of course will be timing storms and storminess. Then again, the weeklies have performed bad, so everyone will probably be best to take everything one week at a time.

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

All of the so called “guru’s” have failed this far. Not saying he’s one per say, but will lump him in given he’s almost always talking cold for somewhere.


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Most likely we will still receive that 2-3 weeks of winter sometime between now and late April. The question is when and none of the gurus know nor does anyone looking at models past 2 weeks. One of these times the EPS and the more clueless GEFS will show cold and it will verify but only after all kinds of false positives. 

[michsnowfreak]

A La Nina like pattern, should that actually be what develops (everyone has to remember, the models and mets have been over the place), can actually produce heavier than average snowfall in total but less in the way of sustained Winter for the southern Great Lakes. 

[KokomoWX]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Well, in theory that could put the sub in a battle zone of sorts.  Hopefully we won't be taking loss after loss with storms always cutting too far west lol

That always seems to never work out but for a tiny few. 

[michsnowfreak]

27 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

That always seems to never work out but for a tiny few. 

Battle zones work out, but only for whos on the good side lol

[DaveNay]

 

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

I think Don S. and Isotherm are looking the best so far that I've seen....granted it's very early so it's still any forecaster's game.     Roger Smith, OTOH......he was touting an early winter thru December (for the east), turning around on New Year's.   

Yeah, Isotherm is off to a decent start.  December is going to end up being colder than what he had in the upper Midwest and Northeast but the general warmer than average almost everywhere idea was pretty good.  His December and DJF temp and snow maps are below.

 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Near normal temps but highest snowfall anomaly? I'll take it. Normal winter temps are cold enough to snow in Wisconsin. It doesn't need to be in the teens, single digits or below. Now it needs to verify.

[buckeye]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Once we get this weekend out of the way, I'd sure there will be plenty more chances. Near to slightly above average temperatures in January and February are more than enough for lots of snow. The issue, of course will be timing storms and storminess. Then again, the weeklies have performed bad, so everyone will probably be best to take everything one week at a time.

True....assuming in a perfect world you get a stretch of near normal temps and storms riding more west to east....or one big block buster in the middle of a zzzzz book-ended pattern.   How often do those things happen?

  The reality around here is we get a cutter that sends our temps soaring into the 50's followed by a cold front that drops us into the 20's....so yea, overall we end up with average temps and higher precip but it's predominantly rain and flurries.   

To get a lot of snow it usually requires a storm to go southeast of us or a clipper pattern, which almost always means colder than normal temps.

[Hoosier]

Too early for Ron Paul?

[RogueWaves]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Too early for Ron Paul?

Big improvement for MSP from 27/0z

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Big improvement for MSP from 27/0z

I'm focused on my inch man.

[OHweather]

On 12/25/2019 at 10:12 AM, RCNYILWX said:

Big change on past couple runs of EPS in the long range. Recent prior runs had parked the PV near Alaska for longer, which is obviously not a good look for us. 12z run yesterday and 00z run last night breaks that down much quicker, with ridging returning sooner to near AK and an active/colder h5 look. With how much waffling has been going on in the long range on the ensembles, not ready to say the flip on latest EPS is for real. We'll have to see how tropical forcing (MJO etc) progresses, and plays a role in NH pattern evolution.  Prior to those possible changes for the better taking place later during the first week of January, we'll have the brief cold shot behind this weekend's system followed by another warm-up due to the ++EPO from PV being over AK.

 

Hoping@OHweather stops by with some pattern thoughts like on 33andRain. And Merry Christmas everyone. Here's to a much better January hopefully.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I suppose I can add some thoughts...I'm not extremely optimistic for the Midwest for the next few weeks, unfortunately.  I guess I'm not optimistic for the East Coast either, it's just a crappy pattern.

The polar vortex settling over Alaska this week is offsetting a couple of other mechanisms that would otherwise try to give us an EPO-induced cold shot to start January.  Convection has flared up over the Pacific the last several days, which the MJO plots are picking up on, and there will be a brief East Asian Mountain Torque next week.  Both mechanisms often pump a ridge into AK, but the polar vortex being parked there is stopping that...so instead of getting a legitimate cold shot, we get that glancing blow a few days into January.

Beyond that, tropical forcing and the stratosphere favor an expansive Southeast Ridge flaring up during the middle third of January.  This will probably bring another week to two weeks of mild weather to most of the sub-forum (places like MN and northern WI/MI possible exceptions).  I think that tropical forcing works back towards the western and central Pacific for late January and that the stratospheric PV is a little weaker by then.  The tropospheric PV should also be out of Alaska by then.  Basically, I think we try to amp a ridge into Alaska and western Canada again in late January and that things are much better aligned for it to actually work out and deliver cold late January into early February. 

In terms of snow potential, it's definitely eh for the next few weeks.  There will briefly be a decent W-E temperature gradient from next weekend through the 10th or so of January that could bring some risk for snow...particularly between the 8th-12th on the front end of any shortwaves ejecting out of the west (and bringing an eventual warm-up).  The period doesn't excite me that much and the farther north, the better, but I suppose that's probably the next set of things to watch. 

As unexciting as this all is, there is still plenty of winter left starting in late-January, despite some recent calls on Twitter to punt the rest of the season because the pattern is turning poor for a few weeks.

[RogueWaves]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm focused on my inch man.

 Me too. 0z was actually friendlier for WMI. Didn't take the secondary so far west. These imbedded troughs rotating thru will have a big impact for my chances and they'll be a last-minute thing to figure out as usual. 

[A-L-E-K]

Wraparound is a myth 

[Chicago Storm]

I'm focused on my inch man.

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[Chambana]

Extended looking as bad as the bears QB Mitchell Trubisky. Yikes. 

[mimillman]

Much better look on the Euro long range again. Placement of the Aleutian ridge looks solid. A bit further East would do wonders.

[RCNYILWX]

Much better look on the Euro long range again. Placement of the Aleutian ridge looks solid. A bit further East would do wonders.

Was gonna say, in a perfect world that's how we'd draw it up to keep the southeast ridge more muted, and plenty of cold air available in the source region. Even if we're on the edge at times, at least it's a more active look.

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[snowlover2]

0z GGEM and Euro both look really interesting for I-70 down to and south of the Ohio River for January 7. GGEM is Kuchera but Euro is not since it's not available on pivotal though i'd imagine it looks similar if not more than GGEM. GFS has a storm but it gets shoved to the gulf coast due to a likely overdone push of cold air.

[chuckster2012]

If only!!

[Gino27]

[A-L-E-K]

Rolling from torch straight into miss south season, gotta love it

[Frog Town]

21 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Rolling from torch straight into miss south season, gotta love it

 with the trough centered more west, the storm track should be more north imho

[King James]

Rolling from torch straight into miss south season, gotta love it

Lol how bout it