RogueWaves Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: 12 years ago today, I remember the infamous winter storm that dropped 8-12+" from SEMI to the GTA. If only we could get a repeat, lol. That was a great storm by mid-Dec std's. LOL tho, I was little bit disappointed in my 10" total since just one county south scored the 15" legit Big Dog. Ahh, those were the days (07-10) of action for our Lwr Lakes sub-region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: christmas torch is a lock, might as well shoot for 60 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 we play our cards right with the rainer and wettest year all time still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Euro still remains storm free past Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: we play our cards right with the rainer and wettest year all time still on the table Lake Michigan will be lapping at your door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: You are probably going to want to be north for what happens around the 25th-26th. Hopefully it gets better for more of the region after that. a bit tongue and cheek on my part. December's story was written when trick or treaters need snow shovels to get around. Now I hope for a flip around the new year to real winter weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 That Pacific pattern (jet streak below) gotta change and until it doesn't, we're going to be stuck in this regime. On the bright side, the GEFS is trying to build a ridge around Alaska near the end of December which should hopefully allow for a -EPO to develop. Anything to get out of this storm-less pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Baum said: a bit tongue and cheek on my part. December's story was written when trick or treaters need snow shovels to get around. Now I hope for a flip around the new year to real winter weather. It is easy to say in hindsight but unfortunately, Nino Decembers sucking is not a foreign concept (close enough to Nino this month even if we fall short of the technical criteria). Not always of course, but there are a lot of them over the years. No sugar coating it. This month has been pretty bad. I think December 1998 (not a Nino) probably takes the cake for worst combo of mild/snowless December in my memory with several others since then that I would put in a tier right under. Of course we know what happened right when January 1999 came. As much as I like cold/snowy Decembers, it was worth the trade-off in that case. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 This upcoming stretch looks pretty annoying tbh. Mild/warm but not particularly warm/record breaking and lack of storminess. Looking at record highs for Chicago for the stretch leading up to and just beyond Christmas, the record highs generally look safe. There are a couple somewhat vulnerable days in there with lower record highs but not sure the timing of the warmest days will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 "Annoying" seems like the best way to sum up most of the upper Midwest's weather this decade. Aughts and '90s (although my perception of the latter may be somewhat muddied since I was a kid) were overall more active and impactful for both winter and severe. Ready to turn the corner to 2020. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: It is easy to say in hindsight but unfortunately, Nino Decembers sucking is not a foreign concept (close enough to Nino this month even if we fall short of the technical criteria). Not always of course, but there are a lot of them over the years. No sugar coating it. This month has been pretty bad. I think December 1998 (not a Nino) probably takes the cake for worst combo of mild/snowless December in my memory with several others since then that I would put in a tier right under. Of course we know what happened right when January 1999 came. As much as I like cold/snowy Decembers, it was worth the trade-off in that case. 12-19-98 I had one remaining marigold near my garage door in S. Bend still alive and blooming. One of the craziest extended autumns I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: It is easy to say in hindsight but unfortunately, Nino Decembers sucking is not a foreign concept (close enough to Nino this month even if we fall short of the technical criteria). Not always of course, but there are a lot of them over the years. No sugar coating it. This month has been pretty bad. I think December 1998 (not a Nino) probably takes the cake for worst combo of mild/snowless December in my memory with several others since then that I would put in a tier right under. Of course we know what happened right when January 1999 came. As much as I like cold/snowy Decembers, it was worth the trade-off in that case. I did not realize we were in a nino December lol. Yes those generally do suck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: "Annoying" seems like the best way to sum up most of the upper Midwest's weather this decade. Aughts and '90s (although my perception of the latter may be somewhat muddied since I was a kid) were overall more active and impactful for both winter and severe. Ready to turn the corner to 2020. 2010s winters were leaps, bounds, and miles better than 1990s winters in Southeast Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 It's still snowing here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Jackstraw said: It's still snowing here Give us a storm total when its done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 You know it’s bad when the GFS doesn’t even have a fantasy snowstorm the entire run...which extends into the first days of January. Not just for our region, but the whole country pretty much. . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: You know it’s bad when the GFS doesn’t even have a fantasy snowstorm the entire run...which extends into the first days of January. Not just for our region, but the whole country pretty much. . Not written anywhere that if December is snowless and mild that January cant follow the same path.Although Skilling mentioned arctic air could return at very end of month or early January. But for what duration?And where's the trough position? If the cold air does return but not further west in the central plains it could just result in New England benefiting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: You know it’s bad when the GFS doesn’t even have a fantasy snowstorm the entire run...which extends into the first days of January. Not just for our region, but the whole country pretty much. . Met's, please educate me. Are long range (340 hr) forecasts of "nothing happening" more accurate than long range major storms? We have all seen the "clown maps" of insane forecasts at those ranges and know that they are likely to disappear. Does this mean that there is an equal chance of an event showing up out of nothing on models like we currently have? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 1 hour ago, DaveNay said: Met's, please educate me. Are long range (340 hr) forecasts of "nothing happening" more accurate than long range major storms? We have all seen the "clown maps" of insane forecasts at those ranges and know that they are likely to disappear. Does this mean that there is an equal chance of an event showing up out of nothing on models like we currently have? I would say it's equal chances. The long range is nothing more than laughs, at least from an operational standpoint. Ensembles can be good for changes in patterns, but actual op runs are worthless. Speaking of ensembles, it does appear that much colder weather is on tap as we start the New Year. I've heard a couple people cite 2014-15, and I could certainly take a Winter like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I would say it's equal chances. The long range is nothing more than laughs, at least from an operational standpoint. Ensembles can be good for changes in patterns, but actual op runs are worthless. Speaking of ensembles, it does appear that much colder weather is on tap as we start the New Year. I've heard a couple people cite 2014-15, and I could certainly take a Winter like that. I would agree long range op runs are worthless. I think theres equal chances of something popping up long range for systems but for that also verifying is another matter. In other words if a long range forecast says nothing is going on chances of it verifying are greater than it showing a particular system that verifies. More combinations on the dice so to speak favoring nada in terms of producing snow than those that do favor system snow. Thats why LES is so great..less variables need to fall in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I would say it's equal chances. The long range is nothing more than laughs, at least from an operational standpoint. Ensembles can be good for changes in patterns, but actual op runs are worthless. Speaking of ensembles, it does appear that much colder weather is on tap as we start the New Year. I've heard a couple people cite 2014-15, and I could certainly take a Winter like that. The problem with a winter like 2014-15 and even 1998-99 is that if you take away the huge storm from each, you are left with a fairly mediocre winter overall. Sure, I would sign up for a repeat if it meant getting the huge storm, but there are no guarantees that happens even if the progression is similar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The problem with a winter like 2014-15 and even 1998-99 is that if you take away the huge storm from each, you are left with a fairly mediocre winter overall. Sure, I would sign up for a repeat if it meant getting the huge storm, but there are no guarantees that happens even if the progression is similar. Even if you take away that huge storm the 2015 Winter was full of clippers and snow cover, which I would take in a heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Even if you take away that huge storm the 2015 Winter was full of clippers and snow cover, which I would take in a heartbeat. True. I was talking more about snow amounts. For example at Chicago... 1998-99 minus the January storm: 29.3" 2014-15 minus the late Jan/early Feb storm: 31.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Law of averages wrt seasonal snow totals for a specific locality. Is difficult to topple. In time, it usually works out within par for the course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: True. I was talking more about snow amounts. For example at Chicago... 1998-99 minus the January storm: 29.3" 2014-15 minus the late Jan/early Feb storm: 31.4" Similarly, if I take last Nov out of last season, it leaves me at only around 75% of avg. I would much rather that Nov snow that never sticks around came as one nice storm in real winter. And yes, 2015 had more than just one BD event so I'd sign up for it quicker than say last winter's JFM. As for enduring these long blah spells to get said BD like in Jan '99 I would agree to the deal since large storms are my #1 followed by deep snow cover at #2, and just any snow cover at #3 priority. Seeing as 2015 featured all of those a similar outcome this winter would be more than welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: True. I was talking more about snow amounts. For example at Chicago... 1998-99 minus the January storm: 29.3" 2014-15 minus the late Jan/early Feb storm: 31.4" I think, at least in my opinion, that I would rake a mediocre season with a serious big dog in a heartbeat. You give me 20"er and nuisance stuff the rest of the season, and I am going to be happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 I think none of us at this point would mind a repeat of the Jan 99 storm. This month would become a distant memory if it happened. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 hours ago, Cary67 said: Not written anywhere that if December is snowless and mild that January cant follow the same path.Although Skilling mentioned arctic air could return at very end of month or early January. But for what duration?And where's the trough position? If the cold air does return but not further west in the central plains it could just result in New England benefiting. A lot of valid questions/possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 3 hours ago, DaveNay said: Met's, please educate me. Are long range (340 hr) forecasts of "nothing happening" more accurate than long range major storms? We have all seen the "clown maps" of insane forecasts at those ranges and know that they are likely to disappear. Does this mean that there is an equal chance of an event showing up out of nothing on models like we currently have? Equal chances either way that far out. However, it is sort of interesting at the same time that there is not even a long range fantasy storm heading into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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