Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Cary67]

23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north.  The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up.

Trending towards the garbage model

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north.  The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up.

 

3 hours ago, Chinook said:

This is maybe not what you want to see if you are from Minnesota or Wisconsin, but the 12z GFS has -23 degrees at the Twin Cities at hour 144 (December 11th), and the 00z Euro has -19 degrees.

Will be a sad day in the wx world if nothing noteworthy comes of such an arctic intrusion as being depicted. Seems like something would take advantage of such a dynamic movement in the upper levels. 

[CheeselandSkies]

On 12/2/2019 at 1:22 PM, buckeye said:

So wxbell revised their winter forecast to go slightly colder in Dec and significantly colder in Feb.   Main reasoning is an almost exact match to 2013/14, (I can literally hear the drool hitting the floor in here), and  2002/03 SST.    Of course the chaos factor always seems to b*tch slap down even the best matching analogs.  

Winter forecasts are all over the place this year.  Usually you have a common thread with a few outliers, but this year I've seen forecasts that are total opposites of each other, (especially in month to month breakdowns).   Should be interesting to see the winners and losers come April.

I realize this won't be a popular opinion on this forum, but the winter of 2013-14 was a nightmare for me. Far too cold for too long, with too many nuisance/nickel-and-dime snowfalls. Having to brush/scrape my car off in the single digits or less at 2:30 AM for work at 3 AM for about 10 weeks straight got real old. That was after in the shower because my apartment heater couldn't keep up with that depth of cold, even running 24/7 which sent my power bills through the roof. Give me a relatively mild (5 degrees either side of 30) winter with a double-digit crusher or two.

[RogueWaves]

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I realize this won't be a popular opinion on this forum, but the winter of 2013-14 was a nightmare for me. Far too cold for too long, with too many nuisance/nickel-and-dime snowfalls. Having to brush/scrape my car off in the single digits or less at 2:30 AM for work at 3 AM for about 10 weeks straight got real old. That was after in the shower because my apartment heater couldn't keep up with that depth of cold, even running 24/7 which sent my power bills through the roof. Give me a relatively mild (5 degrees either side of 30) winter with a double-digit crusher or two.

Sounds like my winter of 1994 in NMI. I totally get it

[Chicago Storm]

On 11/20/2019 at 5:24 PM, A-L-E-K said:

Not sure who's off to a worse start this winter, joe or the gfs

thanks for playing.

[Stebo]

27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

thanks for playing.

Now do 10/31 to 11/21 added in since you cherry picked the only warm period since snow started falling.

[Hoosier]

I wish we could fast forward about a week and a half.

[Chicago Storm]

28 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Now do 10/31 to 11/21 added in since you cherry picked the only warm period since snow started falling.

i didn't start discussing this pattern until 11/18, as shown below. so that would be pointless.

Indian summer part was a bit overblown, but otherwise mild/wet/lacking snow has been spot on.

On 11/18/2019 at 11:49 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like a mild and wet pattern could set up into at least early December.

Guidance has been trending towards a -PNA, along with a neutral to perhaps +NAO/AO.

Might be a delayed, but not denied kind of situation for indian summer.

[Stebo]

5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i didn't start discussing this pattern until 11/18, as shown below. so that would be pointless.

Indian summer part was a bit overblown, but otherwise mild/wet/lacking snow has been spot on.

0-4 above normal is barely noteworthy.

[Chicago Storm]

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

0-4 above normal is barely anything.

tth, as alek would say. what has occurred speaks for itself.

Fairly large area of 2-6 above normal. Fairly snow-less as well...ORD with only 0.1" and DTW with 0.2" since that time.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

tth, as alek would say. what has occurred speaks for itself.

Fairly large area of 2-6 above normal. Fairly snow-less as well...ORD with only 0.1" and DTW with 0.2" since that time.

It has been wet and seasonably mild that's about it. Though that is down here, up north it has been the opposite.

[Chicago Storm]

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I wish we could fast forward about a week and a half.

Hopefully we'll be in a better place by then.

Would be nice to have a solid white Christmas. '17, '16 and '13 were, but only featured 1-2"...the last solid one was '10 later.

[Gino27]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I wish we could fast forward about a week and a half.

Especially once the cold sets in for next week. Regardless of how long it lasts it's sure to have me begging for snow.

[RogueWaves]

My office hitting the LES potential next Tue-Thu pretty hard. With any luck, I could get a period of favorable fetch somewhere in that time-frame and add some bonus amts. 

[CoachLB]

Last call 12/5/2019

[Stebo]

Just now, CoachLB said:

Last call 12/5/2019

Above normal for all the major cities in the east, color me shocked. He should just issue this forecast every year September 1st.

[Hoosier]

Details are anybody's guess but there has been a pretty good signal for a storm around the 13th-15th.  00z Euro looks ready to bomb the heck out of the thing at 216.

[David-LI]

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Details are anybody's guess but there has been a pretty good signal for a storm around the 13th-15th.  00z Euro looks ready to bomb the heck out of the thing at 216.

That storm looks great. 

[chuckster2012]

7 minutes ago, David-LI said:

That storm looks great. 

Great for whom? Not my OV, I'll bet!

[Baum]

looking less and less like this is a repeat of last December...which is a good thing. Chistorm called for a warmer period basically from the late November through first week of December period. Which was a period many had as cold and stormy with a return of the early November chill. Call made in early November. Models wavered back and forth and he stuck to his guns. Good call. 

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Stebo said:

Above normal for all the major cities in the east, color me shocked. He should just issue this forecast every year September 1st.

Lol i know right. But i will say ive seen many forecasts with a sweet spot storm track over us. Obviously its been a dull couple weeks, but season snowfall to date is well above normal and weve only just begun.

[Malacka11]

Something is definitely in the process of getting sniffed out in the 240s

[Cary67]

On 11/26/2019 at 4:33 PM, Cary67 said:

To be expected. Snowy Novembers lead to snowless Decembers. 

Looking good early.

[RogueWaves]

This would be such a kick to the junk!  Ideal path west of the Apps, just to be lacking decent cold. Rub your's rabbit's foot, feet, or whatever works to keep this from happening!

 

[RogueWaves]

44 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The pattern lacks arctic air(outside the short lived intrusion next week), but yeah, I am surprised that kind of bomb couldn't generate a cold sector snow swath further south. But we are talking about a 192-216 fantasy range stuff. Better watching than the cold biased GFS crap though lol.

Christmas Eve 2014 was plagued with this same lack of true cold air and didn't produce much south of Canada! This is at least "trying", tho as you say, it's still fantasy range attm. 

[Hoosier]

Hopefully that thing around the 13th-15th produces a nice snow somewhere, but even if it doesn't, I look at it as sort of just the beginning of the more favorable stretch.  I mean, it can't get much worse than how the first 10+ days of December are going to play out for most of us, right?  

[IWXwx]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hopefully that thing around the 13th-15th produces a nice snow somewhere, but even if it doesn't, I look at it as sort of just the beginning of the more favorable stretch.  I mean, it can't get much worse than how the first 10+ days of December are going to play out for most of us, right?  

Mike at IND agrees with your thinking on a pattern change:

"WHILE THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A TRANSIENT SHOT OF COLD AIR...IT LIKELY WILL SIGNAL THE FIRST STEP IN AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER CONDITIONS GOING FORWARDS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH."

[snowlover2]

0z GFS with another teaser.

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

0z GFS with another teaser.

Long ways off but it never gets old seeing big storms like that show up in the long range.  Luckily we have another 11 days to get that to trend a bit northwest. 

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Long ways off but it never gets old seeing big storms like that show up in the long range.  Luckily we have another 11 days to get that to trend a bit northwest. 

Nah..ride it!