IWXwx Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 36 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Where'd everybody go? The Let's Talk Winter thread should have something to say about the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 Probably want less longitudinal distance between the Canadian low and the system emerging into the Plains if you want a farther south track. Compare where these features were on yesterday's 12z GFS and now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Where'd everybody go? All the interesting shit evaporated, so did everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 19 minutes ago, Stebo said: All the interesting shit evaporated, so did everyone. I'm getting this weird feeling that things are shaping up exactly like last year. It's almost a Deja Vu feeling. Ripping pacific jet, signs of Strong El nino, etc.... Many Winter Forecasts are identical to last year at this time. .....Anyone else getting that feeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Even if the op runs aren’t as exciting with individual threats right now, I’d still role the dice with this pattern with an active jet out of the southwest and a -EPO that gradually pushes the baroclinic zone south. It’s not perfect but should work for someone eventually, and it will take a while for above normal temperatures to return. Also, 1. Someone should see snow in Ohio tomorrow even if it’s not over Angry’s head (might be a little to the east/northeast of him) 2. Last winter was better than average for a majority of the sub, so a repeat wouldn’t be the worst, but the pattern should feature more blocking this winter so those on the southern and eastern fringes that didn’t do as well as everyone else last winter may make up for it this year. Most places are already off to a decent start with no signs of any prolonged snowless/warm patterns through mid-December. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 The concern I have with that mean is that it might be too far east for most here with the trough axis. I guess we will see but I don't want to jump into a nor'Easter bonanza while we shut down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 29 minutes ago, Stebo said: The concern I have with that mean is that it might be too far east for most here with the trough axis. I guess we will see but I don't want to jump into a nor'Easter bonanza while we shut down. I think it's always a concern in a progression like this that the snow threats will sort of skip over. Locally I am not expecting much for the next week or two (would love to be wrong about that). 2 snows have my seasonal total at 3.5"... above average to date but it feels a little underwhelming compared to what other areas in the region have received. I have to keep reminding myself that we aren't even into December yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 It's looking like a strong low will track through southeast Iowa on Tuesday. My area should see mostly rain with a bit of snow on the backside. Northern Iowa ene-ward could get a nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 00z Euro ... and the other models are very similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: 00z Euro ... and the other models are very similar. That gradient on the south side there could be interesting. I might get 2 inches while Portage gets 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 5 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: It's looking like a strong low will track through southeast Iowa on Tuesday. My area should see mostly rain with a bit of snow on the backside. Northern Iowa ene-ward could get a nice thump. Yeah looks like a nice 35-40 degree rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 22 hours ago, Frog Town said: I'm getting this weird feeling that things are shaping up exactly like last year. It's almost a Deja Vu feeling. Ripping pacific jet, signs of Strong El nino, etc.... Many Winter Forecasts are identical to last year at this time. .....Anyone else getting that feeling? I'm not seeing any signs of a strong El nino? I do know the Winter forecasts are very good this year, I remember they were pretty good last year but I don't remember the details. I usually forget what the Winter forecasts were once the Winter actually happens, that's usually just an appetizer to tide me over lol. All I know is the November 11th snowstorm here far exceeded all expectations and any model runs, so that's an excellent sign to me. Once a storm has happened, we kind of forget the QPF forecasts that we were dissecting before the storm happened. Plus ratios are never set in stone. The November 11th snowstorm dropped 8.8" of snow in my backyard, even more in other areas, but the important thing is the liquid equivalent was 0.90" in my rain gauge. The forecast was 3-5" (which I thought was low, but I was expecting 4-6") and the HIGHEST model run was 0.75" of QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 9 hours ago, Stebo said: The concern I have with that mean is that it might be too far east for most here with the trough axis. I guess we will see but I don't want to jump into a nor'Easter bonanza while we shut down. I don't either, but last Winter was a very sucky Winter for the East Coast while the Western Midwest scored time and time again. We are in a good spot because if we arent in the jackpot zone, we can usually get fringed by scraps of the best stuff whether the goods are setting up to the West or the East, but of course ideally we want some of those Winter forecast to Pan out that had the storm track as the Southeast Michigan special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 9 hours ago, Geoboy645 said: That gradient on the south side there could be interesting. I might get 2 inches while Portage gets 8. I'll take that...would rather not have to deal with heavy snow for my planned Thanksgiving drive to Kenosha. Also, it always feels uber weird getting missed to the SOUTH in early/late winter season snow events...looks like that might be the case for the Twin Cities area again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Smells like a bust. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 12 hours ago, Stebo said: The concern I have with that mean is that it might be too far east for most here with the trough axis. I guess we will see but I don't want to jump into a nor'Easter bonanza while we shut down. I think there’d be a window before the trough settles in for some sort of snow and then during the second week of December as it starts warming up. It’s not optimal and yeah that mean would be too suppressive for a time, but I think it boils down to a 10-14 day period of below average temperatures with a somewhat active southern stream...it may not work out but I think enough ingredients are there for opportunities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Back to back crushers leads to this.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 The revenge of Minneapolis. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 We got off to a record start, snow-wise, but it was inevitable that areas to the north and northwest would surge past us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 A snowmobiler's dream for the Northwoods of WI if that Euro map verifys! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 ..just 4 fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Back to back crushers leads to this... . 65" of snow in the next 10 days... Better gas up the blower...lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 Sad to watch the moisture coming out of Texas go poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 17 hours ago, Hoosier said: The revenge of Minneapolis. Bring it. We are already -5.3” below average for snowfall. Tuesday/Wednesday event trending better up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Speaking of going poof, so did the cfs's mild December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: Sad to watch the moisture coming out of Texas go poof I guess with 2 storms in our general vicinity already (10/31 & 11/11), we get to sit on the sidelines for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 What does everyone think of the pattern heading into December? As of now it looks as if it will certainly be cold, but I don't like the way the storms are tracking atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, Gino27 said: What does everyone think of the pattern heading into December? As of now it looks as if it will certainly be cold, but I don't like the way the storms are tracking atm. Agree. Not warm in the means but looks like a table scraps pattern for much of the central/southern sub for a while. Not so unusual I guess for late November/early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Let's keep dropping 10 or 12 mb off each storm as they track thru the Lakes. Eventually one of these will be cold enough to deliver the real-deal LES event. (may also erode the lakeshore to mby at the same time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Angrysummons said: The upstream is in bad shape right now. You need to be patient. Decembers generally in this type of pattern setup, generally aren't very good. It also breaks my heart to see plenty of cold air without a favorable pattern. I know it's very early but still... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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