pondo1000 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: It’s like your job to troll Buckeye? Good Lord! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 4 hours ago, Baum said: I sure hope all this cold and snow early isn't a jinx on the main cold season. Although, it didn't matter in the late 70's. But those are the only winters I recall an early start that stuck.There I said it. Skilling weighed in that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 GFS being stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 54 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Skilling weighed in that question. Pretty small sample size though. It would be interesting to look at November and how x total by a certain date or the end of that month does. At some point it becomes difficult to prevent an above average snow season if you rack up a lot early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Pretty small sample size though. It would be interesting to look at November and how x total by a certain date or the end of that month does. At some point it becomes difficult to prevent an above average snow season if you rack up a lot early. Would agree simple size probably not large enough to draw any real conclusions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 GEM gets it decently inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Pretty small sample size though. It would be interesting to look at November and how x total by a certain date or the end of that month does. At some point it becomes difficult to prevent an above average snow season if you rack up a lot early. I did something similar, but used Nov. 15th as the cutoff. After I did that, I thought to myself that the end of November would have been a better cutoff. On 10/29/2019 at 10:31 AM, IWXwx said: Your comment prodded me to search for that answer. I used ORD from 1958-2018 since it is the hub of the subforum. I used the criteria of more than 1" of snow at ORD through Nov. 15th and the resulting winter totals. It looks to me like there is little correlation, but judge for yourself from these numbers. 1967 - 6.7" - 28.4" 1989 - 6.6" - 33.8" 1959 - 6.3" - 50.9" 2018 - 2.1" - 49.5" 1995 - 1.9" - 23.9" 1976 - 1.8" - 24.7" 2014 - 1.5" - 50.7" 1971 - 1.1" - 36.9" However, if the cutoff is Nov. 5th, then there are only three years with more than an inch of snow: 1967, 1989, and 1976. A small sample size, but those years were less than stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 GGEM and Euro took a step back. It's gonna be hard to get anything really good out of the setup, given where the main PV lobe is located up over the Hudson, combined with +PNA in place. The new 12z ECMWF/GGEM runs are probably the best case scenario. I'd hedge somewhere between them and what the GFS has for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 8 hours ago, Baum said: I sure hope all this cold and snow early isn't a jinx on the main cold season. Although, it didn't matter in the late 70's. But those are the only winters I recall an early start that stuck.There I said it. Depending on where your line is drawn for the "early start" threshold will make a difference in the outcome. For SMI (not including LES belt counties) I consider anything noteworthy before Dec 10th as qualifying. List of good early starters (post-70s era glory days) = 89-90, 95-96, 00-01, 04-05, 08-09, 09-10, 13-14 Not all early starters are a death knell "used to refer to the imminent destruction or failure of something" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 At least the 18z NAM isn't like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 riding the GFS gonna be harder than usual this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: GGEM and Euro took a step back. It's gonna be hard to get anything really good out of the setup, given where the main PV lobe is located up over the Hudson, combined with +PNA in place. The new 12z ECMWF/GGEM runs are probably the best case scenario. I'd hedge somewhere between them and what the GFS has for now. 18z Euro with another step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 Feeling good about not getting whiffed to the south. Other than that am keeping expectations on the low side. Would just be nice to get some snow in advance of the more significant cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: riding the GFS gonna be harder than usual this winter Should swap roles. Promote the NAM to Global status, and demote GFS to "inside 48 hrs" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Z Germans must’ve upgraded z German. Consistent as it gets with this system. Lock steady. Ride it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Looking forward to some more mood flakes Sun night/Mon morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Extended looking boring after the next snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Will be interesting to watch the advertised eastern cold trough, and if it can withstand time. My bet, is that it will be the dominate flow of this winter season. Blob rules.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 13 hours ago, Hoosier said: Lake enhanced signal plainly evident around the IL/IN shore on the GFS and NAM beyond 72 hr. This will add to totals to some extent, though temp profiles near the lake could be a bit marginal for good accumulations at first until the cold air deepens. 07/12z JMA said "go big or go home"! Sure wish there was a snowfall map to go along with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Probably needs its own thread but too lazy to make one. 12z Euro came in with 3-5" along/north of 88 across northern Illinois late Sunday night through mid afternoon Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 12z Euro did stop the bleeding at least. Would be a band of 3-6" in northern IL when factoring in better than 10:1. Nice size snow swath overall, especially for something at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Probably needs its own thread but too lazy to make one. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 If the initial band of snow could join up better with the slug of moisture that develops farther south, we'd have a band of 6+. Not saying that will happen but it's not that far away from happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 going 3" IMBY final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 The thread that Thundersnow was too lazy to make. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 Midweek looking good for a 1-2" refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Getting to 10 before tday would be such a change of pace from all the recent slow starts here lakeside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 On 11/7/2019 at 5:29 AM, A-L-E-K said: We're a football school now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: Midweek looking good for a 1-2" refresher. That clipper keeps showing up. Nothing scientific, but I'm smelling over-performer just for the fluff factor if nothing else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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