RogueWaves Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 12z GEM out to the 14th (h240) Eastern Lakes and upstate NY are buried. What we get isn't exactly chump change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 Some lake enhancement does look likely, probably starting out around Chicago metro before shifting into IN/MI. Can't rule out some rain or more of a mix at first but as 850 mb temps drop, all snow should be seen even all the way to the shoreline. Lake temps generally running in the mid-upper 40s will yield delta T initially in the mid teens before increasing to around 20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 This would be an easy 3-6" type lake enhanced around the southern end of Lake Michigan on Thursday if it were a bit colder. But the marginal thermal profiles (especially early on) are a problem which will hurt accumulations. Could be a sweet spot that is in the band but far enough inland to escape some of the marine warmth and accumulate more efficiently but it is too early to try to figure that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 On 11/3/2019 at 12:03 PM, beavis1729 said: Well, all this talk doesn’t matter anymore, since the 12z gfs lost the arctic outbreak. Sure, it’s still generally a bit colder than normal and therefore could open the door for a possible snow event...but the cold isn’t noteworthy. Obviously 492 dm thicknesses in the northern plains were overdone...but I expected a modest correction to 498 or 504...not 516. That’s a 15-20 degree difference in sensible weather. Plus, the angle of the cold is wrong now; too far east. I guess we deserve this for looking at Day 7-9 op runs...but that’s what winter weenies (including me) look at in November. You would think Day 7-9 has some general predictability. If it were Day 10+, that’s different. Anyway, I suppose it’s best to give it a day or two and not jump off the train yet...but we’ll see. The cold is more impressive again on the recent model runs, and not just the GFS. We'll see if it trends back the other way again but it is starting to get out of total goofball range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 0Z GFS is clipper city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: The cold is more impressive again on the recent model runs, and not just the GFS. We'll see if it trends back the other way again but it is starting to get out of total goofball range. Agree, now within 5-6 days instead of 7-10. Also, it looks like there could be a bit of snowpack in the source region (Upper Midwest), which is noteworthy this time of year. If all of this comes together, areas here or nearby could be close to record cold. Probably getting ahead of myself again ...but here are some records that *could* be in jeopardy: Madison: Record low 9 on 11/11 (2017), 7 on 11/12 (1979). Record low max 23 on 11/11 (1894). Rockford: Record low 14 on 11/10 (2017), 10 on 11/11 (1926). Record low max 29 on 11/10 (1933), 26 on 11/11 (1986), 27 on 11/12 (1940). ORD: Record low 18 on 11/10 (2017), 15 on 11/11 (1950). Record low max 28 on each of 11/10 (1926), 11/11 (1894), 11/12 (1995). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 2 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Agree, now within 5-6 days instead of 7-10. Also, it looks like there could be a bit of snowpack in the source region (Upper Midwest), which is noteworthy this time of year. If all of this comes together, areas here or nearby could be close to record cold. Probably getting ahead of myself again ...but here are some records that *could* be in jeopardy: Madison: Record low 9 on 11/11 (2017), 7 on 11/12 (1979). Record low max 23 on 11/11 (1894). Rockford: Record low 14 on 11/10 (2017), 10 on 11/11 (1926). Record low max 29 on 11/10 (1933), 26 on 11/11 (1986), 27 on 11/12 (1940). ORD: Record low 18 on 11/10 (2017), 15 on 11/11 (1950). Record low max 28 on each of 11/10 (1926), 11/11 (1894), 11/12 (1995). IF this airmass doesn't moderate in the coming days and there is a night or two of favorable radiational cooling, then we could see something pretty crazy especially where there is snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Crazy. But even middle TN isn't out of the woods on measurable snow next Monday. For us to get anything above a trace this time of a year is a big deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 Check this out on the 00z GEM. Look near Cleveland. It seems like a mesolow but I have never seen one so well defined on a model. Like this is ridiculous. There appears to be one around Lake Michigan at the same time, but weaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 Remember the monster low that the GFS blew up a few days ago as the cold air dumped in? That was an extreme outcome but let's see if things can trend any better with this in coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 extended looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 40 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Remember the monster low that the GFS blew up a few days ago as the cold air dumped in? That was an extreme outcome but let's see if things can trend any better with this in coming days. GEFS seem to be somewhat correcting it's progressive bias, another good sign that this may just come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 The 12z Euro seems to be leading the way with the Monday/Tuesday threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 Lake effect parameters look pretty high end next week. Could really pile up somewhere if there's not a lot of band shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 yeah big picture looks good, especially for favored areas to my east. still holding out hope to get in on a little of the action but gonna depend on how things break and way too early to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: yeah big picture looks good, especially for favored areas to my east. still holding out hope to get in on a little of the action but gonna depend on how things break and way too early to say 18z ICON Nice period of lake enhancement in ne IL too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 b2b good runs from the second worst model i have access to, needless to say feeling condifent 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: extended looks good You keep repeating yourself. Keep it up for about 4 more months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2019 Author Share Posted November 6, 2019 A number of GEFS members have a better look than the op. I did read that the ensembles did not get the upgrade that the GFS did so maybe a bit of an apples to oranges comparison but still nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: A number of GEFS members have a better look than the op. I did read that the ensembles did not get the upgrade that the GFS did so maybe a bit of an apples to oranges comparison but still nice to see. iirc, GEFS had a hot hand last winter too. I'd lean on them over the OP any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 00z UKMET is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 00z Euro looks like it will have a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro looks like it will have a decent storm. For whom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 Acceptable enough Ratios would probably improve from beginning to end too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Nice, having 10 on the season before Thanksgiving would be wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I sure hope all this cold and snow early isn't a jinx on the main cold season. Although, it didn't matter in the late 70's. But those are the only winters I recall an early start that stuck.There I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baum said: I sure hope all this cold and snow early isn't a jinx on the main cold season. Although, it didn't matter in the late 70's. But those are the only winters I recall an early start that stuck.There I said it. None of that shit means anything and it's a different planet now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: None of that shit means anything and it's a different planet now. True, This was back when the Illini had a basketball team. Apologies......... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 On 10/31/2019 at 3:10 PM, buckeye said: ....more like a glance than a lock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 42 minutes ago, Baum said: True, This was back when the Illini had a basketball team. Apologies......... We're a football school now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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