Tallis Rockwell Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 E EDIT: The new outlook has a better picture ...DISCUSSION... The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF appear to be in reasonable agreement with respect to synoptic-scale features through Day 4 and into the first half of the Day 5 period. After this, differences in the evolution of the large trough progged to crossing the Plains states Day 4 and then the Mississippi Day 5 begin to become fairly substantial. As such, confidence in the predictability of the pattern beyond day 5 is quite limited. In the mean time, some potential for the evolution of scattered to isolated severe storms remains apparent over the eastern Oklahoma and Arklatex region and surrounding areas Day 4 (Sunday 10-20), as a deepening surface low shifts out of the central and northern High Plains and eventually reaches the Minnesota vicinity. Correspondingly, a trailing cold front is shown crossing eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/western Texas during the afternoon, as warm-sector destabilization becomes diurnally maximized. As favorably strong flow aloft overspreads the region in tandem with the advancing surface front, at least isolated cells -- developing as residual capping is locally breached -- will evolve within a sheared environment likely supportive of rotating updrafts. Storms may diminish somewhat in intensity overnight, but it appears that reintensification of convection -- and regeneration of accompanying severe risk -- should occur across portions of the central Gulf Coast region, as the front continues its eastward advance through an amply moist/destabilizing low-level airmass. Again, potential for supercells, and all severe hazards, appears possible. By Day 6, model differences -- including with location of the surface frontal position -- have become substantial enough to preclude continuation of severe risk into the eastern Gulf Coast/southern Atlantic Coast states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Looks like SPC backed off a bit on Sunday's setup. We'll see what happens I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted October 18, 2019 Author Share Posted October 18, 2019 This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 19, 2019 Share Posted October 19, 2019 Upgraded to a slight risk for d2 and d3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMT417 Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Now Enhanced risk for portions of OK, AR and TX today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Looks like storm initiation may be starting SW of DFW (around Stephenville) based on radar and satellite imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 It kind of looks like there's a 2nd line of storms forming from Longview to east of San Antonio. I know they are separate Meso discussions, but some of the small popups in between seem along a line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 There is a new tornado watch and some storms near Fort Worth. It looks like the severe-warned storms are a result of a supercell split with left- and right-moving supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Tornado warning Panola County TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Confirmed tornado near Fairplay, TX (9 mi west of Carthage). This pic shared on local news recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 A hatched tornado risk area is now present on the new SPC outlook within most of the 10% area (in NE TX from just north of DFW, SE OK, and W AR). EDIT: and there is now a tornado warning west of La Grange, much further south along I-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle-1 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Storms moving into Dallas are starting to get a suspicious look to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 21 minutes ago, Kyle-1 said: Storms moving into Dallas are starting to get a suspicious look to them. Looks to be a hook (possibly) trying to form on the radar over Southlake. That storm seems to be intensifying too. EDIT: new SPC MD seems to suggest that then environment is favorable for tornadoes, though fortunately these storms seem to be struggling to show more significant rotation: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2090.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 So that possible hook might be heading my way? Im in a 2nd floor apartment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Tornado warning now in effect for northern Dallas County, including the Park Cities and Garland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Made it to friends first floor apartment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle-1 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Rotation definitely getting stronger, warning was the correct call. Decent hook near University Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Confirmed tornado over Love Field area per WFAA live broadcast, with tornadic debris signature just NW of the the Park Cities. That could rack up a lot of damage pretty quickly depending on its strength. EDIT: it seems that there is a debris ball. PDS tornado warning now in effect. This is getting to be quite a serious situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle-1 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Hook is getting nasty; debris ball likely on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 this is the official warning text Quote At 909 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located just north of University Park, moving east at 30 mph. This tornado may cross I- 635 near the Dallas North Tollway in the next few minutes. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Garland around 925 PM CDT. Mesquite around 930 PM CDT. Richardson, Sachse and Sunnyvale around 935 PM CDT. Rowlett around 940 PM CDT. Dallas around 945 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Power went out. Im at corner of arapaho and hillcrest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle-1 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 PDS tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 why isn't this thread more active, there is a live tornado striking northern parts of Dallas, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 New SPC MD suggests that an "intense" tornado may be ongoing: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2091.html Quote Mesoscale Discussion 2091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Areas affected...North Dallas Metropolitan Area Concerning...Tornado Watch 676... Valid 210208Z - 210245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 676 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado is currently ongoing across northern Dallas County. The environment is supportive of a strong tornado, with additional tornadoes possible downstream in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Recent radar signatures from KFWS reveal an intense supercell characterized by a 0.5 degree rotational velocity between 60 and 65 kt. A tornadic debris signature has also been noted on recent radar scans. This signature is occurring in an environment characterized by STP between 3 and 4. Previous signatures within similar environments produced damage-estimated wind speeds from 120 to 160 mph and a confidence is high for an intense tornado. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 32879602 32779632 32769683 32909703 33059702 33139702 33169684 33219651 33189612 32979590 32879602 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle-1 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 VROT up to 80 knots. Violent tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Steve McCauley 4 mins · This is a very dangerous situation for northern Dallas County. Doppler radar is indicating a DEBRIS BALL associated with a tornado between Royal Lane and Walnut Hill Lane just north of SMU. This DEBRIS BALL indicates trees and pieces of buildings that have been lifted into the air. Take shelter immediately if you are east of this storm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle-1 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Cell to the south of Dallas starting to look like it wants to produce too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Monster should have passed just to the south of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 PDS tornado warning continued for NE Dallas County and SE Collin County for a tornado over Richardson. There are now two (!) rotation signatures, one over Richardson and the other one over Garland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Wow this country has seen numerous major tornado emergencies this year. Luckily and hopefully the deaths due to these monsters remains low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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