Torch Tiger Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gonna be some shocked folks not expecting winds . Glad we not them At worst a few lighthouses lose shingles, and that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 GFS cranks the CAA winds Thursday. Looks like gusts 40-50 mph region-wide. Sustained 15-20 too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: At worst a few lighthouses lose shingles, and that's all Could see a regionwide New England lighthouse blowdown 1 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: GFS cranks the CAA winds Thursday. Looks like gusts 40-50 mph region-wide. Sustained 15-20 too whoops...thought I had the GFS up...it's the NAM which does so. GFS isn't as strong...gusts 35-40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Now batting the Nammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Could see a regionwide New England lighthouse blowdown This just cracked me up lol..good one DIT!! We hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: GFS cranks the CAA winds Thursday. Looks like gusts 40-50 mph region-wide. Sustained 15-20 too Well great, I'm probably going to die of shock...this is going to be the year I only experienced 2 seasons, winter and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Max weenie zone southeast of Long island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Max weenie zone southeast of Long island? literally 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Nutmug Nawler! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Sell those winds 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Just so we're semantically clear... by "pedestrian," we ( or I, anyway) am not intending the violate the sanctity of the parade goers in here, and/or NARCAN anyone's weird joy-circuitry they get out of the modeled specter of a storm. For our location area, compared to anywhere else - save NS ..NF, some parts of NW Europe and the Berring archipelago - pedestrian is nasty by any other standards. Pedestrian for us is just not historic. Think of a blustered intersection where rain-coat clad people are fighting a bit with umbrellas trying to turn inside out, but the commute is still doable. That's what I envision as an average/pedestrian system for our region of the world. That said, I take it the 18z NAM shaves some potency off the drug without even looking. Because the sudden dearth of discussion is usually telling - ha. There should be an internet law, that anyone histrionically involved with inflating the significance of something, has to keep posting with substantive analysis when said something is less or else they lose access. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I kind of like this NAM solution better - ... It still has the silliness with the CF low foisting up the eastern limb of the total circulation, but at least it isn't using that as the dominant focal point when all the U/A forcing is back west... It's a better solution at least, tho perhaps not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Actually after closer inspecting it looks like it's wrong in a textured way ... giving the illusion of being better because of offsetting errors. Ha. I mean it's still trundling around with which faux center to hone. Its creating convectively induced meso-beta-scaled circulations, and then wave-interfering them with one another, such that the total stays a little weaker... when they may not even exist in reality. and what are we/I doing anyway .. The NAM beyond 30 hours ? we never should have ventured into any discussion and I'm a sucker- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Buy buy buy ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Beware of the dual lows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 I even think the H5 height anomaly charts in this case are a bit overblown. The trough is certainly potent and of course will be associated with extremely below-average heights, but they’re being enhanced by this “phasing” of this s/w energy was seems convectively-feedback induced. So of course models are going wild with SLP deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Dammit. The NAM dropped my MVL snowfall from 9.5” at 12z to only 2.6” at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 12Z and 18Z GFS qpf totals. Does this make sense? A sub 980mb low producing less than .50" of precip over a fairly large area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Dammit. The NAM dropped my MVL snowfall from 9.5” at 12z to only 2.6” at 18z. Either way people will be posting first turn pics Thursday night/Friday am lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Just now, wxeyeNH said: 12Z and 18Z GFS qpf totals. Does this make sense? A sub 980mb low producing less than .50" of precip over a fairly large area? I think it’s b/c in how the storm strengthens. It strengthens rapidly as its passing to the east of SNE. Plus I also think this is moving very progressive and that’s going to cut down totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 12Z and 18Z GFS qpf totals. Does this make sense? A sub 980mb low producing less than .50" of precip over a fairly large area? Caught in the transfer from the primary to the secondary taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think it’s b/c in how the storm strengthens. It strengthens rapidly as its passing to the east of SNE. Plus I also think this is moving very progressive and that’s going to cut down totals There’s some real strong mid-level forcing well west on a lot of these runs, then it occludes and seems to lose its juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Continued wagons east and weaker on the gfs. Still seems more likely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Some acorns might be shook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: There’s some real strong mid-level forcing well west on a lot of these runs, then it occludes and seems to lose its juice. I think there will be a real good slug of precip but not sure how widespread it will be. I do think this thing could lose its juice quick and things shut down...you can kinda see all models show that. This is kinda hard to totally decipher though I think. I’m still highly skeptical of the whole phasing thing and exactly what happens when that phasing takes place. I know we’re inside a favorable window and the support seems to be there, but phasing is a very fickle thing. I forgot who it was who mentioned this, but they mentioned about not having some sort of low in the southeast already. The ideas of these s/w is stemming on the idea of convection forming in the southeast tomorrow...and the NAM goes s/w happy and then goes bonkers with one of the pieces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Why Because it usually is at this time range. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 14 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Continued wagons east and weaker on the gfs. Still seems more likely to me. Gfs is by itself right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is by itself right now I think this ends up being a common theme going forward right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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