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Mid October 2019 Bombogensis Coastal


Ginx snewx
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GFS ... the ensemble mean appears to contain some members that are down into the 970 to 975 mb level.  But, since the mean is also 984 and positioned slightly east of the operational, I'd say the places the operational run somewhere mid-grade when comparing to the members.  For the storm mongers .. the spread is smeared slightly west so that's something to watch -

 

image.png.b71391761f36435a21b16e5fe78e1ced.png

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS ... the ensemble mean appears to contain some members that are down into the 970 to 975 mb level.  But, since the mean is also 984 and positioned slightly east of the operational, I'd say the places the operational run somewhere mid-grade when comparing to the members.  For the storm mongers .. the spread is smeared slightly west so that's something to watch -

 

image.png.b71391761f36435a21b16e5fe78e1ced.png

Yeah. With the EURO run, I think there's definitely a trend to pump the ridge out west and amplify the Atlantic High, cutting off for a bit. 

The NAM is definitely wrapping up that southeast vorticity too fast.  I missed that when I first looked at the run. 

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Well, three runs of the Euro, with three different solutions.

Oh there's a common theme for inclemency with some kind of storm, of course.  But this is also a demonstration of continuity issues.

But, seeing as this is the drug of choice for a lot of users in here - we'll leave objectivity out of it.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

From the east? Sell.

One of the more laughable wind maps I've ever seen...from the euro no doubt. 

The amount of convective feedback here is ridiculous. Hopefully not a sign of things to come for winter otherwise every single event we'll be seeing 20-30'' snow maps getting tossed around like Daniel Jones. 

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